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Blu-ray has outsold HD-DVD so far this year a lot. This is probably partly due to the fact that PS3 has the blu-ray built in. Some people may bitch about PS3 and Blu-ray, but the fact is that Sony has put over a million blu-ray players in homes, and that's more than HD-DVD.

Also, Apple is on the Blu-ray board of directors, so I think they are more likely to add Blu-ray support before HD-DVD.

The only thing that is keeping HD-DVD alive is Universal Studios' support of it. Once they realize Blu-ray has more customers, they'll switch or at least start releasing both, and that will be the final nail in the coffin.

I think the PS3 Blu-Ray drive is key. I typically consider myself an early adopter, but even still was on the fence regarding HD formats until the PS3 came out. I now have a PS3 (which is freaking awsome btw) and thus several blu-ray movies in the movie library. PS3 integration is going to be very good for blu-ray overall, and a much more succesful than the XBox "buy the add-on" modality for the HD-DVD drive.
 
Why anyone would archive to expensive and slow optical media like blu-ray and HDDVD when hard drive storage is so cheap is beyond me. Blu-ray and HDDVD are for content distribution, pure and simple.


Yes because there's nothing more reliable than a noisy, part-moving HDD. Yes it is content distribution. That's why it works. Mom X and Teen A aren't going to want to connect this computer to that computer to that TV just to watch a movie. They're going to love putting a disc inside a player. It's the same reason people buy actual CD's over buying songs off of iTunes. Sometimes they just want something more than an e-receipt and a bunch of compressed data. Not everyone wants your "I've got every movie I own on my computer" idea.
 
Blu-ray is dead.
Why?
The adult film industry is adopting HD since Sony says no adult content on blur-ray.
Game over.
HD wins.

Sex sells.
Always has, always will.


And the PS3 has a blu-ray drive built in. It may not be the #1 selling console but it's sure as hell pushing units. There's more than just the porn industry in the world.
 
HD-DVD is "technically better" ever so slightly. BR has adoption by machine sellers on its side. PS3 to the point they could not make blue lasers fast enough, Apple who is a mass-market consumer and media company. On some level BR has a few legs up. People buy discs to play on what they have.

Betamax was "better" than VHS, but VHS player sales initially did better because of increased commissions on hardware sales at stores "like" Pacific Stereo. Once the adoption trend was set, publishers saw increased demand for titles published on VHS vs Betamax. After a while they phased out Betamax titles.

Hey MM, you are not the only old man here :) You do take a bit of getting used to. . . .

When the quad iMac is released is not particularly relevant. It will run CS3 great and FCP just fine unless you are a really heavy user of effects, which 98% of people are not. I wonder if it will have a built-in Infiniband I/O? :)

NAB folks need upscale MacPros with upscale add-in cards and upscale storage and upscale FC software. (I should have said FCX for Xtreme in my first post not FCE which should be used for Express).

This an exceptionally important show for Apple IMHO.

Rocketman
 
Yes because there's nothing more reliable than a noisy, part-moving HDD. Yes it is content distribution. That's why it works. Mom X and Teen A aren't going to want to connect this computer to that computer to that TV just to watch a movie. They're going to love putting a disc inside a player. It's the same reason people buy actual CD's over buying songs off of iTunes. Sometimes they just want something more than an e-receipt and a bunch of compressed data. Not everyone wants your "I've got every movie I own on my computer" idea.

The future is not CDs or platter-spinning hard drives. The future is solid-state drives, like this one recently announced by SanDisk. Prices on these solid-state drives will be at parity with current hard drive prices within 1 - 2 years.
 
The 4k capable Red One will begin delivering their products during NAB. All of the pre-order slots have been filled. The cam is not for everyone but it is considered a real "bargain" for those in the "Pro" industry. What would be a better way to capture your client base right on the same NAB show.

"The Red One can record 11.4 Megapixel (4520x2540 pixel) high definition images at 4:4:4 color sampling. That resolution goes well beyond any HD camcorders available today and enters the realm of digital cinema cameras that are used to replace film."

Not to mention all those square feet land space, it is perfect to demo the new FCSX with both hardware and software integration for both audio and video. Finally a real "Apple PRO Studio" to offer these potential "red" clients before they seek out Avid Pro System.
 
If you think people will hold back just because of the .0 software release you must be living on a different rock.

1. You are going to buy it eventually, who else you buying from? Dell?
2. Even if it is buggy, so what? Just download updates for it.

That argument doesn't work. You can't "just download updates" until they are available. One can wait before buying a copy of Leopard. No one has to go lemming over Leopard. Personally, I was quite disappointed with Tiger, it's going to take more to convince me to pay for Leopard.

For paying work, I wouldn't recommend depending on x.x.0 software of any brand, even Apple's. It's always a good idea to wait a few months, make sure that it's stable, if not, wait until an update fixes the particular problems.
 
oh boy. it's gotta be leopard and new mac pros.

i noticed the cnd refurb site has been unindated! It hasn't listed this many items (tons of macbooks too) in months.

months!

gotta be clearing the inventory.

oh boy! :)

One might think after looking at the refurb site the day before when there was nothing that there would be an update today or sometime soon. There was maybe 5 items total besides apple care of course that you could buy. I had never seen it so depleted..
 
How come so many here don't realize NAB is a PROFESSIONAL conference meant for video PROFESSIONALS. Apple is not going to announce anything that is purely consumer related. It NEVER has at NAB or any other pro convention. Don't expect anything on the iPod/iTunes, iMac, iLife, iPhone, MacBook front. You'll only end up heartbroken. Also don't expect a Leopard announcement other than how it might integrate with FCP Studio.

Here is what Apple will/might announce:

Final Cut Pro is a no brainer (the FCP box graphic is on the invite. How is that for a giveaway).

8-Core MP is more possible than not. I suspect if the FCP Extreme rumors are true it might require that kind of horsepower. But I'm also betting they won't ship until Leopard goes GM.

New MacBook Pros is a 50/50 gamble. Maybe 51/49 in favor of new machines. Also won't ship until Leopard goes GM.

New high res displays for the entire line. Flip a coin, but only if a new MP is announced.

That is is. That is the show. Leopard will have it's own Apple Event. iLife '07 will be unveiled then.

Yep! I think you nailed it!
 
That argument doesn't work. You can't "just download updates" until they are available. One can wait before buying a copy of Leopard.

For paying work, I wouldn't recommend depending on x.x.0 software of any brand, even Apple's. It's always a good idea to wait a few months, make sure that it's stable, if not, wait until an update fixes the particular problems.

I stronlgy agree. Wait for 10.5.1. You won't have to wait long. As for Microsoft, Apple has them in their sights legitmately for the first time since Steve himself declined Bill's offer to "standardize on the Mac". There may have been some bad strings attached, but I bet another month of negotiations could have solved that. Let's not forget Microsoft was the one who recapitalized Apple when they were down. Yes they made a huge profit on the stock, but they also had the vision.

I predict Office-Mac and MS-Mac Business Unit has legs.

MS missed EVERY internet advance.

Rocketman
 
HDDs are mechanical and fail. So we can't leave our master footage on HDDs. It must be more permanent like video tape or optical media. So we pay more for that permanence and longevity.

I can understand why someone as young as you may not have thought about that yet Laslo.

Umm, optical media and tapes are just as likely to fail as hard drives. Have you ever heard of RAID systems and servers, specifically the ones with "parity" that are built to anticipate hard drive failure? For the price of a blu-ray burner and a few blank blu-ray disks you can buy a 2TB raid setup.

I don't know what my age has to do with anything, I was just making a comment on yours about how blu-ray can be used for archival purposes, no need to take it personally.
 
since Sony says no adult content on blur-ray.

Actually, that's FUD, or at best, a distortion of the truth.

The problem is that companies like Disney require that their replicator not produce porn because they don't want copies "Debbie Does Dallas" to accidentally get mixed in with their kiddy stuff and cause a fiasco, the easiest way to do that is require their replicator not produce porn, so each replicator has to decide if they want to bid on Disney's work or not. BTW: said movie is being released on BRD. It will be easier for them to find replicators when more replicator lines are put into service.

Sony can't prevent the production of adult BRDs, but it may be that they've decided to not do that production themselves with their own production lines.
 
Blu-ray has outsold HD-DVD so far this year a lot. This is probably partly due to the fact that PS3 has the blu-ray built in. Some people may bitch about PS3 and Blu-ray, but the fact is that Sony has put over a million blu-ray players in homes, and that's more than HD-DVD.

Also, Apple is on the Blu-ray board of directors, so I think they are more likely to add Blu-ray support before HD-DVD.

The only thing that is keeping HD-DVD alive is Universal Studios' support of it. Once they realize Blu-ray has more customers, they'll switch or at least start releasing both, and that will be the final nail in the coffin.

As far as NAB, we'll see Final Cut Studio 6 and possibly Final Cut Express 4. This will be the main thing, and I see a huge revision for Final Cut since it's been two years since Final Cut 5. Native 5.1 surround sound, better media management, better HD support
There may also be Mac Pro and Cinema Display revisions.
No Shake because Apple said Shake is being discontinued for a new digital compositing project due out next year codenamed 'Phenomenon'.
Possibly the Final Cut Extreme edit suite.

Neither format is much of a barn burner. HD DVD players will be going down in cost on April 1st which should help. The entry level HD-A2 will have a MSRP of $399 (down from $499) which should mean low $300s street price. I'm certainly taking advantage before July 31st so that I can get my 5 free movies along with the deal. Both formats are headed towards a stalemate. In about 18 months Universal players will hit that playback both movies that are actually affordable (LGs Uni player at $1299 is madness..it's blasphemy!)

Apple hopefully will offer BTO options for recorders from HD DVD and Blu-ray. Let the consumer decide where they want to go. I tell you though a killer feature is HD content on Red Laser discs. A 8.5GB DL disc will hold over an hour of AVC or VC-1 encoded data. That's great for a disc that costs $1.

As far as NAB my guesses are

We see two versions of Final Cut Studio

Basic version

Final Cut Pro 6 (updated LiveType, Cinematools, Compressor)
Motion 3- Adds Z Axis
Soundtrack Pro 2-
DVD Studio Pro 5- adds improved HD DVD authoring and Blu-ray authoring.

Extended
FCP 6
Motion 3
STP 2
DVD SP 5
Shake 4.5
Media Management app- Artbox light (Proximity acquisition)
Color Correction- Final Touch light( Silicon Color acquistion)
XSAN client

These bundles meet two distinct needs. The Basic covers your typical workstation.

Extended is obviously aimed at workgroup stations where multiple editors are working on a project simultaneously.

Also at Musikmesse late this month Apple will announce Logic Pro 8 which will be a huge update and finally LP8 will be a peer application in a Final Cut Pro workflow. So if STP 2 doesn't fit the bill LP8 steps in with perfect roundtrip support.
 
The future is not CDs or platter-spinning hard drives. The future is solid-state drives, like this one recently announced by SanDisk. Prices on these solid-state drives will be at parity with current hard drive prices within 1 - 2 years.

Assuming prices slide that much, where will hard drive prices be then in 1-2 years? Probably even lower with still much larger capacity. I ran the numbers last week, and I think I calculated that parity would take something like 5-6 years, assuming the current rate of price sliding, based on cost per GB.
 
"The Red One can record 11.4 Megapixel (4520x2540 pixel) high definition images at 4:4:4 color sampling. That resolution goes well beyond any HD camcorders available today and enters the realm of digital cinema cameras that are used to replace film."

Red isn't claiming 4:4:4 for anything larger than 2k, take a look at their spec sheet.

AFIAK, it's a single sensor CMOS, and it doesn't appear to be something like the Foveon type of sensor. In short, meaning that 4k 4:4:4 is impossible with the current Red One design.
 
Umm, optical media and tapes are just as likely to fail as hard drives. Have you ever heard of RAID systems and servers, specifically the ones with "parity" that are built to anticipate hard drive failure? For the price of a blu-ray burner and a few blank blu-ray disks you can buy a 2TB raid setup.

I don't know what my age has to do with anything, I was just making a comment on yours about how blu-ray can be used for archival purposes, no need to take it personally.

Laslo I agree with you. I don't mind the idea of backing up to Blu-ray but it's also clear that Apple is working on ZFS support in Leopard and ZFS is pretty damn stout with protection.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZFS

This is where I want to go for my storage. Pooled Storage (just add new drives ..no complex volume management needed) checksums and snapshots. No silent corruption and the ability to handle more storage than Bill Gates can afford.
 
HD-DVD is "technically better" ever so slightly. Rocketman

Where did you hear that? I have always heard the opposite but I am not an expert. It's just that most of the technical papers I have seen say that using Blue laser with a much shorter wavelength of light than a ruby laser ultimately allows much denser data storage on disk with faster read/write times. Maybe current HD-DVD has a slight spec edge but ultimately I believe the Blue-Ray has much more future development potential.
 
Assuming prices slide that much, where will hard drive prices be then in 1-2 years? Probably even lower with still much larger capacity. I ran the numbers last week, and I think I calculated that parity would take something like 5-6 years, assuming the current rate of price sliding, based on cost per GB.

The kicker there though is that hard drives are going to hit a floor price soon, where production/material costs no longer allow for the price per Gb to reduce. The promissing tech there being perpendicular drives, though the $ premium on that technology is a bit more than it should be.

All that said, the "killer" factor going for the solid-state drives is the increased reliability, reduced power consumption, and portability. Those factors will push that technology ahead even if there is a bit of a price premium for it.
 
Where did you hear that? I have always heard the opposite but I am not an expert. It's just that most of the technical papers I have seen say that using Blue laser with a much shorter wavelength of light than a ruby laser ultimately allows much denser data storage on disk with faster read/write times. Maybe current HD-DVD has a slight spec edge but ultimately I believe the Blue-Ray has much more future development potential.


Blu-Ray IS the more advanced technology. The only leg HD-DVD has to stand on is lower production cost.
 
Red isn't claiming 4:4:4 for anything larger than 2k, take a look at their spec sheet.

AFIAK, it's a single sensor CMOS, and it doesn't appear to be something like the Foveon type of sensor. In short, meaning that 4k 4:4:4 is impossible with the current Red One design.

http://foveon.com/article.php?a=192

4fps at full resolution vs 24 for RED 60 fps at 2K.

Red has faster data capture capacity. Foveon has FW400 :)

At some point a better CMOS simply is not better.

Rocketman
 
Where did you hear that? I have always heard the opposite but I am not an expert. It's just that most of the technical papers I have seen say that using Blue laser with a much shorter wavelength of light than a ruby laser ultimately allows much denser data storage on disk with faster read/write times. Maybe current HD-DVD has a slight spec edge but ultimately I believe the Blue-Ray has much more future development potential.

I can't cite my source but it was linked from macrumors. Basicly it has incrementally better audio treatment (allegedly) and a slightly different video treatment, which I am SURE a human could not detect the difference between. HD-DVD is also marginally lower mass-production cost per disc, but if we look at Betamax vs VHS that "spread" will reduce to insignificant after about one year of production for both formats in a mass-market.

Rocketman
 
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