Of the Apple-geeks I know, less than 10 has gotten the watch, and most of them are like "yeah, cool gadget, but...", none, afaik is interested in upgrading.
People who are into watches scoffs at a digital toy, so the "watch crowd" is not the target group and never will be.
I remember when the iPad came out, at every meeting, people were taking notes on their iPad (or at least trying to) because this was the way forward, computers were soooo yesterday. Now, I can't remember when I saw an iPad at a meeting. Most people gave them to their children to play games, I know I did.
In 2011 people were desperate to find funds to order an iPad and we distributed so many (work at uni). Now, we order less than one a year, nobody cares.
Now, everybody needs to track their training for some reason, and they absolutely need to have notifications on their wrist. I give it a year or 2, then most watches will be in a drawer.
The iPhone was a gamechanger, the iPad and the watch not so. Sure they'll sell loads of them, but not like the iPhone, nowhere near.
I've said it before and say it again: I think all companies are throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks, everybody wants to have that new iPhone that reinvents a segment. So far, no one has succeeded. The watch is not the answer.