Apple Not Expecting Drop in iPhone Demand, Asks Suppliers to Make 90 Million iPhone 14 Units

[The-Real-Deal82]

It doesn’t matter where I’m from. The business theory is universal, with plenty of business case studies with historical facts. It’s a universal theory.

Are BMW, LV, and other luxury brands have been significantly affected by inflation? Not really. It’s also why Apple is confident in their guidance in the last quarterly report.

Those are simply the facts.
I live in Indonesia, we have rising inflation as well. Apple launched the base iPhone 13 Pro for roughly $1300, $300 more than US MSRP. The pre orders were sold out and people were lining up in stores to buy it.

The general target segment of iPhone buyers tend not to be people who would be severely impacted by inflation. You might disagree based on your current feelings on the situation, but Apple themselves was confident in their guidance. These people working there with billions in the bank are not stupid.

All car brands, especially BMW, Audi and Mercedes have seen a huge drop off in sales since 2017. Most of that is due to tax in Europe changing in April of that year but rising costs since have also affected them all. That’s a bad example to compare Apple to if you want to display a company who is not affected by consumer constraints.

So why do you think someone who is struggling with costs, increases of £5k a year on what they usually pay, will still prioritise an iPhone? I don’t care what you think Apple think, what do you actually think? Why would that person who usually buys a new iPhone but is finding themselves on the poverty line, still think an iPhone is a necessary purchase? This is affected normal people after all.

 

[ofarlig]

It doesn’t matter where I’m from. The business theory is universal, with plenty of business case studies with historical facts. It’s a universal theory.

Are BMW, LV, and other luxury brands have been significantly affected by inflation? Not really. It’s also why Apple is confident in their guidance in the last quarterly report.

Those are simply the facts.
I live in Indonesia, we have rising inflation as well. Apple launched the base iPhone 13 Pro for roughly $1300, $300 more than US MSRP. The pre orders were sold out and people were lining up in stores to buy it.

The general target segment of iPhone buyers tend not to be people who would be severely impacted by inflation. You might disagree based on your current feelings on the situation, but Apple themselves was confident in their guidance. These people working there with billions in the bank are not stupid.

50% of the population buys iPhones over here, a large chunk of that are people who are hit hard by inflation and rising interest rates right now as they have an average income. You seem to be living in some weird reality where Apple is selling a luxury item only bought by the affluent like designer handbags or designer jewellery, Apple sells normal consumer electronics bought by the average person. That category is usually hit very hard by recessions due to the fact that people do not need to buy a new phone or computer as often as they do when the money is flowing freely.

That said Apple has a lot of statistics and it might be that they see many people ready to update now so their numbers might still make sense, but if the economy doesn't recover and instead becomes worse it might not matter.

 

[ian87w]

50% of the population buys iPhones over here, a large chunk of that are people who are hit hard by inflation and rising interest rates right now as they have an average income. You seem to be living in some weird reality where Apple is selling a luxury item only bought by the affluent like designer handbags or designer jewellery, Apple sells normal consumer electronics bought by the average person. That category is usually hit very hard by recessions due to the fact that people do not need to buy a new phone or computer as often as they do when the money is flowing freely.

That said Apple has a lot of statistics and it might be that they see many people ready to update now so their numbers might still make sense, but if the economy doesn't recover and instead becomes worse it might not matter.

I'm basing my statement from a sound business theory and facts of Apple's record breaking revenue quarter over quarter during the pandemic and Apple's own guidance during the last quarterly report.

I'm sorry if your feelings are hurt due to the current economic situation. Please note that's not my intention, and my statement is merely looking into the facts and economic theory that have plenty of case studies to support it. The proof will be in the pudding, which is Apple's quarterly reports. Apple is a publicly traded company, they won't just put out guidance out of thin air. It will be based on analysis and facts, and Apple is confident on their their performance regardless.

And yes, the Apple brand is as highly desirable as those fashion brands. Apple doesn't become a trillion dollar company without careful financial and business strategy during any situations.

 

[ian87w]

All car brands, especially BMW, Audi and Mercedes have seen a huge drop off in sales since 2017. Most of that is due to tax in Europe changing in April of that year but rising costs since have also affected them all. That’s a bad example to compare Apple to if you want to display a company who is not affected by consumer constraints.

So why do you think someone who is struggling with costs, increases of £5k a year on what they usually pay, will still prioritise an iPhone? I don’t care what you think Apple think, what do you actually think? Why would that person who usually buys a new iPhone but is finding themselves on the poverty line, still think an iPhone is a necessary purchase? This is affected normal people after all.

Why are you moving the discussion? Facts are facts. Any business major will say the same. You can guess based on your own feelings, but what I was discussing was economic theory with plenty of case studies to proof it. And Apple's own guidance is key, and they are confident. If your feelings are hurt, then I'm sorry, but that's not the point of this discussion. The discussion is about Apple not expecting drop in demand, and it matched their own guidance and other facts about their branding and positioning. Those things have been studied through and through in business majors. Feelings, unfortunately, doesn't count in financial analysis and business strategy.

 

[ofarlig]

I'm basing my statement from a sound business theory and facts of Apple's record breaking revenue quarter over quarter during the pandemic and Apple's own guidance during the last quarterly report.

I'm sorry if your feelings are hurt due to the current economic situation. Please note that's not my intention, and my statement is merely looking into the facts and economic theory that have plenty of case studies to support it. The proof will be in the pudding, which is Apple's quarterly reports. Apple is a publicly traded company, they won't just put out guidance out of thin air. It will be based on analysis and facts, and Apple is confident on their their performance regardless.

And yes, the Apple brand is as highly desirable as those fashion brands. Apple doesn't become a trillion dollar company without careful financial and business strategy during any situations.

The pandemic didn't have a negative impact on the economy, it had the opposite effect, the governments poured out free money which lead to mass spending which is part of the problem now with the inflation. So your pandemic argument is rather an argument against sales being on the same level as during the pandemic and that they might return to pre-pandemic levels again.

My wife actually works in distribution when it comes to consumer electronics and sales are highly dependant on the economy in that segment. So you'd have to prove that the people buying iPhones are part of the same demographic that buys luxury products and thus the economy having a limited effect on demand, which will be hard when random cashiers at the supermarket are getting them for their 7 year olds.

Why are you moving the discussion? Facts are facts. Any business major will say the same. You can guess based on your own feelings, but what I was discussing was economic theory with plenty of case studies to proof it. And Apple's own guidance is key, and they are confident. If your feelings are hurt, then I'm sorry, but that's not the point of this discussion. The discussion is about Apple not expecting drop in demand, and it matched their own guidance and other facts about their branding and positioning. Those things have been studied through and through in business majors. Feelings, unfortunately, doesn't count in financial analysis and business strategy.

You seem to be going on about business majors a lot. They aren't made for doing proper analysis with their limited to no experience with mathematics, I get plenty of those applying to our analyst positions and their resumés all end up in the trash can unless business is just their second degree next to a math one.

 

[ian87w]

The pandemic didn't have a negative impact on the economy, it had the opposite effect, the governments poured out free money which lead to mass spending which is part of the problem now with the inflation. So your pandemic argument is rather an argument against sales being on the same level as during the pandemic and that they might return to pre-pandemic levels again.

My wife actually works in distribution when it comes to consumer electronics and sales are highly dependant on the economy in that segment. So you'd have to prove that the people buying iPhones are part of the same demographic that buys luxury products and thus the economy having a limited effect on demand, which will be hard when random cashiers at the supermarket is getting them for their 7 year olds.

You seem to be going on about business majors a lot. They aren't made for doing proper analysis with their limited to no experience with mathematics, I get plenty of those applying to our analyst positions and their resumés all end up in the trash can unless business is just their second degree next to a math one.

Why do I need to proof anything? Apple said it itself in their own guidance in their last report. How many times I have to repeat that? It's Apple themselves that are saying it, and they are confident about it, which is the original point of this article.

I'm not going into your personal life. That's not the point of this discussion. The proof will be in the pudding, which is Apple's own quarterly reports. No need to dismiss me just because your feelings are hurt. And no need to insult me either. If you want to keep going on about your feelings instead of the actual topic, then sorry, you have to entertain yourself. 🙏

Edit: Here's Tim Cook's own words.

Cook told CNBC's Steve Kovach that he expects year-over-year revenue growth to "accelerate in the September quarter" compared to the June quarter "despite seeing some pockets of softness" in some areas, including digital advertising across its platforms.

Apple is a publicly traded company. When the CEO said things like this, it is not out of thin air. Apple is expecting YoY revenue growth to accelerate in the September quarter. There you go.

 

[ofarlig]

Why do I need to proof anything? Apple said it itself in their own guidance in their last report. How many times I have to repeat that? It's Apple themselves that are saying it, and they are confident about it, which is the original point of this article.

I'm not going into your personal life. That's not the point of this discussion. The proof will be in the pudding, which is Apple's own quarterly reports. No need to dismiss me just because your feelings are hurt. And no need to insult me either. If you want to keep going on about your feelings instead of the actual topic, then sorry, you have to entertain yourself. 🙏

Edit: Here's Tim Cook's own words.

Apple is a publicly traded company. When the CEO said things like this, it is not out of thin air. Apple is expecting YoY revenue growth to accelerate in the September quarter. There you go.

Apple have been wrong before in their guidance and they will be wrong again, them believing something does not make it true so the question is are they wrong this time or not?

My feelings aren't hurt at all, no idea where you get that from. I dismiss you because you are saying things which doesn't line up with reality and trying to make it sound legitimate by throwing words like "facts" and "case studies" around. If you want any of your arguments to make sense you can start by proving that the average people buying iPhones for their kids somehow is in the minority of people whose spending is not limited during a recession or high inflation.

No one is disputing that the people who buy handbags for €20k won't care much about the economy when they make their purchase decision but you have yet to be able to show that the huge majority of the iPhone buyers that work normal jobs are in that demographic.

As for Apples September quarter it has nothing to do with this topic since this is about the iPhone 14 sales which will barely exist before the quarter ends, so why are you talking about that? The interesting point will be seen in their December and March quarters, but as I said before it might be too early to see the economic effect yet, it all depends on the energy and fuel prices over the winter.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

Why are you moving the discussion? Facts are facts. Any business major will say the same. You can guess based on your own feelings, but what I was discussing was economic theory with plenty of case studies to proof it. And Apple's own guidance is key, and they are confident. If your feelings are hurt, then I'm sorry, but that's not the point of this discussion. The discussion is about Apple not expecting drop in demand, and it matched their own guidance and other facts about their branding and positioning. Those things have been studied through and through in business majors. Feelings, unfortunately, doesn't count in financial analysis and business strategy.

My feelings aren’t hurt at all. It has nothing to do with feelings and everything to do with discussing a topic on the internet with strangers who don’t always see things the same way. I’m sure if demand drops in Europe then it will be made up elsewhere in the world and Apple fans like yourself will be more than happy with those figures for whatever reason you deem fit.

I’ll be buying a new iPhone next month, possibly a 13 Pro as the 14 doesn’t seem too appealing from the leaks. Many won’t be buying one though but Apple wouldn’t miss a few million sales anyway.

 

[ian87w]

My feelings aren’t hurt at all. It has nothing to do with feelings and everything to do with discussing a topic on the internet with strangers who don’t always see things the same way. I’m sure if demand drops in Europe then it will be made up elsewhere in the world and Apple fans like yourself will be more than happy with those figures for whatever reason you deem fit.

I’ll be buying a new iPhone next month, possibly a 13 Pro as the 14 doesn’t seem too appealing from the leaks. Many won’t be buying one though but Apple wouldn’t miss a few million sales anyway.

See, this is the problem. If you look at my comments here, I’m not even an Apple fan. Yet you seem to accuse me of such just because I’m pointing out facts. Again, sorry if your feelings were hurt due to the current economic situation. Facts are facts, and you can read Tim Cook’s guidance again for reference on Apple’s confidence.

It would be great to have a discussion while separating feelings and facts instead of accusing people of fandom.

Bye.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

See, this is the problem. If you look at my comments here, I’m not even an Apple fan. Yet you seem to accuse me of such just because I’m pointing out facts. Again, sorry if your feelings were hurt due to the current economic situation. Facts are facts, and you can read Tim Cook’s guidance again for reference on Apple’s confidence.

It would be great to have a discussion while separating feelings and facts instead of accusing people of fandom.

Bye.

You quoted my post that clearly clarifies that ‘my feelings are not hurt’ and then once again try and patronise me by apologising for my feelings being hurt? Poor form. I’ve already said I don’t care whether Tim Cook or Apple are confident their demand will not drop because that’s a company purely hyping the demand before a product has even been released. They are not going to say they think demand will drop and risk influencing people not to buy a new iPhone. Banks were pretty confident they would continue selling 100% mortgages back in January 2007 and very few doubted them because of previous figures. Not suggesting Apple is going to lose massively or collapse but my point and a few others is that the very people who buy iPhones are also entering one of the biggest financial hardships of the last 50 years. This may not be a worldwide problem but in Europe it is. Whether Apple thinks this will make a difference to profit or demand is up to them. I agree with you that it’s a case of those who are interested in the figures will see at the end of March next year.

Finally for clarity, I do not have hurt feelings over the current and immediate economic state. I am worried for people I know who will struggle but certainly not for those who’s only sacrifice is not having the latest iPhone. Maybe those who can’t afford to keep their home or put the heating on will still buy the 14 Pro Max and what I am saying is totally wrong. Who knows? I think this discussion is exhausted now though so that’s that.

 

[Muceda]

I just upgraded to the 13 Mini, figuring I'll have to ride out a few product cycles before another mini comes along.

Same here. I actually upgraded from a 13 Pro to a 13 Mini 😂🤣… and gave the pro to my wife.