Montevina is a systemboard chipset, not a CPU. Montevina uses Penryn CPUs just like the current Santa Rosa systemboards do.
Both current mobile quad-cores are too hot to run in the current MacBook Pro enclosure. So a new enclosure would need more powerful (and louder) cooling in order to dissipate the extra heat generated.
I think what we will see is:
- the 2.6GHz T9500 replaced by the new 2.8GHz T9600
- the 2.5GHz T9300 replaced with the new 2.53GHz T9400
- the 2.4GHz T8300 to be replaced with the 2.4GHz P8600
The new chips cost the same as the old ones and operate on the faster 1066MHz FSB.
While I agree with your analysis, I hope they do more than that. Taking into account that Apple said that margins will be lower for the next year or so, I hope they choose to offer in standard models what they are currently offering as BTO:
1)
2.53GHz cpu replacing the 2.4GHz cpu
2.80GHz cpu replacing the 2.5GHz cpu
2)
For the 17" model, the 1920*1200 display standard (instead of BTO)
For the 15" model, a new 1680*1050 display standard
This way, the MacBook line would use 2.26/2.40GHz cpus and the MB Pro line, the 2.53/2.80GHz cpus, adding more differentiation between lines.
If the BlackBook is "discontinued" (because of the "new" alu enclosure of the MacBook), then it makes room for another model that could be a 15" MacBook using the "old" 1440*900 display of the current 15" MBP.
The new lines of Apple's notebooks could look like that:
$1099 13" MacBook (1280*800) 2.26GHz X4500 GPU (using the LED-backlit display of the MBA)
$1299 13" MacBook (1280*800) 2.40GHz X4500 GPU (using the LED-backlit display of the MBA)
$1399 15" MacBook (1440*900) 2.26GHz X4500 GPU (using the current glossy 15" MBP display)
$1599 15" MacBook (1440*900) 2.40GHz X4500 GPU (using the current glossy 15" MBP display)
$1799 13" MacBook Air (1280*800) 1.86GHz X4500 GPU 120GB HDD
$1999 15" MacBook Pro (1680*1050) 2.53GHz dedicated GPU (new resolution LED-backlit display)
$2299 17" MacBook Pro (1920*1200) 2.53GHz dedicated GPU (the BTO display becomes standard)
$2399 13" MacBook Air (1280*800) 1.86GHz X4500 GPU 64-80GB SSD
$2499 15" MacBook Pro (1680*1050) 2.80GHz dedicated GPU (new resolution LED-backlit display)
$2799 17" MacBook Pro (1920*1200) 2.80GHz dedicated GPU (the BTO display becomes standard)
$2999 13" MacBook Air (1280*800) 1.86GHz X4500 GPU 128-160GB SSD
* Given the price difference between the SL 1.60GHz ($284) and the SL 1.86GHz ($316), Apple would be better off using only the 1.86GHz cpu in the MBA (economy of scale).