Apple noticed low adoption / is strong arming iOS 26+

[thadoggfather]

I have no problem doing research, I just know that there are no officially viable numbers available anywhere. A sample size of 2,000 people is nothing compared to the install base of iOS. I think the only numbers we can take at face value are those that are presented by Apple, which they haven't done for this cycle yet.

iOS 18 Installed on 76% of iPhones Introduced in the Last Four Years

iOS 18 adoption is on pace with iOS 17 adoption last year, according to iOS 18 adoption statistics provided by Apple. iOS 18 is installed on 76 percent of iPhones introduced in the last four years, while 63 percent of iPads from the last four years are running iPadOS 18. 68 percent of all...

www.macrumors.com

And why have they not provided numbers? They did last year for iOS 18. January is already passed.

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tenor.com

Also, you're just wrong

A sample size of
2,000 people is often considered the "gold standard" for large-scale research because it offers high precision with manageable costs. In a population of millions, this sample size provides a very reliable snapshot of the whole.

Key Metrics for a Sample of 2,000

• Margin of Error: Typically ±2.1% or ±2.2% at a 95% confidence level. This is significantly more precise than the ±3% margin standard in samples of 1,000.
• Confidence Level: Most studies use a 95% confidence level, meaning if you ran the survey 100 times, 95 of those times the results would stay within that ±2% margin.
• Statistical Power: A sample of 2,000 provides high statistical power (often exceeding the 80% industry benchmark), making it highly likely to detect small but real differences between groups.

Again do some basic research. You're so invested in this subject but can't bring yourself to look at anything other than what I spoon feed you.

 

[HouseLannister]

Again do some basic research.

Read the article you are sharing. You are contradicting your own statement and proving that SellCell's estimates are right and StatCounter's estimates are wrong. 78% of 2000 participants said they are on iOS 26. So that is a high adoption rate from a "gold standard" sample size with "high confidence" and "high statistical power" per your own guidelines.

 

[FatLouie]

I do wonder what the EU regulators will have to say about this? Apple is effectively forcing people to use 26 by taking away services at the beginning of 2027, which might ruffle some feathers. Apple reminded me of a company I retired from. That company was heavily regulated, and it would rather litigate with local, State, and Federal authorities than ever do the 'right thing'. Apple is no different as I see it.

I gave up my iPhone for an OPPO, so these soon-to-die services won't affect me. On my iPad Pro M4 I won't miss iMessage, etc. My Mac Studio I will continue to use, but it looks like I may be using my Debian box a lot more next year.

When I gave up my iPhone for OPPO, I cancelled my AC+ and iCloud storage. Glad to have that money in the pocket again. When the AC+ contract ends on the iPad and the Mac Studio, those will not be renewed. No need to pay for AC+ when Apple is sunsetting 1-year-old devices.

 

[I7guy]

Respectfully I seen you go to tremendous lengths in multiple threads convincing people they should like something they don’t and their eyes are deceiving them on bugs and jankiness.

That’s your prerogative but we’re gonna go our own paths here

The dude and others trying to convince me it’s great they’re shutting out FaceTime and iMessage certificates on a year old device lol

Like what is that

When iOS 27 tightens up all kinds of loose ends you all be oooo’ing and ahhh’ing how great the next release is "building upon the starting foundation of iOS 26 that wasn't quite there"

iOS 18 was the ultimate release then iOS 26 came along and swept you off your feet.

I’m good

It’s fine fwiw on my iPhone but I understand peoples reservations. And mail app is a disaster on iPadOS 26. And it just doesn’t really add anything great to the tablet in my experience. I would know my iPad mini has it on it.

Some people notice nothing some people notice everything. Some people have a good experience on one device others have a bad one on same device. It is a subjective matter and I can at least admit as much.

It’s good we got options notwithstanding the ones Apple are forcing us into. I’m not a fan and don’t care if that makes me the weirdo. Totally comfortable with that

Realistically probably will update to a more mature iOS 26 by the time it comes around or 27 by then but just don’t like not being given a choice

Again the floodgates will be opened next year. I will be prophetic about this one given 50% adoption rate.

People have whatever opinions they have. Some posters have gone to great lengths attempting to convince others that iOS 26 and iPadOS 26 is a disaster. But saying the opposite with the same energy is trying to convince others iOS 26 is good against their opinions?

IOS 26 and iPadOS 26 adoption is more than what is being reported, imo. People are free to like or dislike it, but if you post about, be prepared for an opposing, hopefully respectful opinion.

 

[I7guy]

I do wonder what the EU regulators will have to say about this? Apple is effectively forcing people to use 26 by taking away services at the beginning of 2027, which might ruffle some feathers. Apple reminded me of a company I retired from. That company was heavily regulated, and it would rather litigate with local, State, and Federal authorities than ever do the 'right thing'. Apple is no different as I see it.

I gave up my iPhone for an OPPO, so these soon-to-die services won't affect me. On my iPad Pro M4 I won't miss iMessage, etc. My Mac Studio I will continue to use, but it looks like I may be using my Debian box a lot more next year.

When I gave up my iPhone for OPPO, I cancelled my AC+ and iCloud storage. Glad to have that money in the pocket again. When the AC+ contract ends on the iPad and the Mac Studio, those will not be renewed. No need to pay for AC+ when Apple is sunsetting 1-year-old devices.

I like it. Vote with your $$$, not that apple will care. But why you think apple is sunsetting an iPhone 16?

 

[8483011]

iOS 18 Installed on 76% of iPhones Introduced in the Last Four Years

iOS 18 adoption is on pace with iOS 17 adoption last year, according to iOS 18 adoption statistics provided by Apple. iOS 18 is installed on 76 percent of iPhones introduced in the last four years, while 63 percent of iPads from the last four years are running iPadOS 18. 68 percent of all...

www.macrumors.com

And why have they not provided numbers? They did last year for iOS 18. January is already passed.

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tenor.com

Also, you're just wrong



Again do some basic research. You're so invested in this subject but can't bring yourself to look at anything other than what I spoon feed you.

I actually have minimal interest in this subject, because I disagree with your core argument. I just come on here to pass time while my code compiles lol. I can't really speak to why they haven't provided numbers yet, maybe they haven't even hit 50% yet 🤷‍♂️

 

[FatLouie]

I like it. Vote with your $$$, not that apple will care. But why you think apple is sunsetting an iPhone 16?

Well, at present I have no intentions of going to 26. Battery drain on the iPhone was shown to increase. When I put 18 on my iPad, I saw an increase in battery drain. I don't care for the Liquid Glass look because of my eyes. Apple has effectively sunset my devices by forcing 26 onto users via the dead certs.

I am not complaining. I have no heartburn with 26. I will not use it until Apple fixes the bugs and addresses the LG nuances people complain about. At present, it seems Apple is not fixing the bugs. We will see what the future holds.

I think that people need to keep in mind that folks who are unhappy are not unhappy because they are on iOS 1 and Apple has decided to not support iOS 1. It seems to be a matter of ethics: Apple is essentially rendering all non-26 OS versions unusable for people with good hardware. They are doing it by rendering services unusable on a one-year-old OS. Not even Microsoft did that.

Folks should keep in mind that the only difference between iOS 18 and iOS 26 is that Apple chose to skip the numbers in between the two. So essentially, iOS 18 is being treated like iOS 1.

 

[thadoggfather]

I actually have minimal interest in this subject, because I disagree with your core argument. I just come on here to pass time while my code compiles lol. I can't really speak to why they haven't provided numbers yet, maybe they haven't even hit 50% yet 🤷‍♂️

'You disagree with my core argument' because of your undying emotional connection to the brand.
I respect that, but I will also call it out since you are unable to.

Because you can't explain yourself in any definable way, that is the explanation. Occam's razor.

 

[HouseLannister]

Apple has effectively sunset my devices by forcing 26 onto users via the dead certs.

1. They aren't dead yet.
2. They might never be dead.
3. If they are going to force you into something, it will be 27.2 at the earliest. You can skip 26 entirely.

 

[FatLouie]

1. They aren't dead yet.
2. They might never be dead.
3. If they are going to force you into something, it will be 27.2 at the earliest. You can skip 26 entirely.

Several of my friends and I see 27 as the viable solution. The problem is that once my iPad is gone, and I replace it with an Android device...I won't be back to Apple, other than my Mac Studio. It is on 15.7.4 presently; it won't be put on 26, but I could put it on 27.

26 has turned out to be kin to Windows Vista. 🙂

 

[8483011]

'You disagree with my core argument' because of your undying emotional connection to the brand.
I respect that, but I will also call it out since you are unable to.

Because you can't explain yourself in any definable way, that is the explanation. Occam's razor.

I'm not sure what statement that I've made here that sheds my alliegence to the fruit company, but if that's your opinion of me that's alright ig lol. It's interesting that you think that anyone that disagrees with you is just an Apple shill.

 

[I7guy]

Well, at present I have no intentions of going to 26. Battery drain on the iPhone was shown to increase.

Which phone. Battery life is pretty good on my phone with iOS 26 and Apple Intelligence enabled. I will say I think battery life on my new iPad Pro m5 is not that good and hoping that will increase.

When I put 18 on my iPad, I saw an increase in battery drain. I don't care for the Liquid Glass look because of my eyes. Apple has effectively sunset my devices by forcing 26 onto users via the dead certs.

What dead certs. Because you elect not to update to iOS 26 apple won’t support the version of iOS 18 you are on. That’s the apple way.

I am not complaining. I have no heartburn with 26. I will not use it until Apple fixes the bugs

Not sure what bugs you are referring to. Not saying it’s not bug free, but in my anecdotal opinion it’s pretty solid.

and addresses the LG nuances people complain about. At present, it seems Apple is not fixing the bugs. We will see what the future holds.

I think that people need to keep in mind that folks who are unhappy are not unhappy because they are on iOS 1 and Apple has decided to not support iOS 1. It seems to be a matter of ethics: Apple is essentially rendering all non-26 OS versions unusable for people with good hardware.

This is not new apple behavior. If you do not want to upgrade you live with the consequences.

They are doing it by rendering services unusable on a one-year-old OS. Not even Microsoft did that.

Still not clear on what stopped working on iOS 18.

Folks should keep in mind that the only difference between iOS 18 and iOS 26 is that Apple chose to skip the numbers in between the two. So essentially, iOS 18 is being treated like iOS 1.

There’s a world of difference between the real iOS 1 an the fake iOS 1.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

It's interesting that you think that anyone that disagrees with you is just an Apple shill.

Yeah, to be honest, that kind of really gives the game away doesn’t it?
Guy doesn’t care at all about iMessage and FaceTime. He just wants to fight and yell at clouds.

 

[I7guy]

Several of my friends and I see 27 as the viable solution. The problem is that once my iPad is gone, and I replace it with an Android device...I won't be back to Apple, other than my Mac Studio. It is on 15.7.4 presently; it won't be put on 26, but I could put it on 27.

26 has turned out to be kin to Windows Vista. 🙂

I couldn’t disagree more, but YYMV. IOS 27 is not going to be that substantially different from iOS 26 base on the progression of iOS 7 to iOS 8.

 

[thadoggfather]

IOS 27 is not going to be that substantially different from iOS 26 base on the progression of iOS 7 to iOS 8.

So we 'can't know' the future of set to expire certs for devices capable of iOS 26 that have been purposefully kept on iOS 18, even though it's spelled out in changelogs for walled off 18.7.4 update does have updated certs that is exclusive to legacy devices because it 'hasn't happened yet' despite having iOS 6 to 7 precedent of the same thing..

But on top of that, you don't think iOS 27 will be 'all that different' than iOS 26 based on precedent of 7 to 8 not being that different (cross device handoff, iCloud Photo Library, interactive notifications mean nothing to you?), even though iOS 27 WWDC features haven't been announced or occurred?
iPhoneOS 1 to 2 was quite different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone_OS_2

I guess App Store was a rather insignificant addition.

Not sure what bugs you are referring to.

more evidence of someone saying they're experiencing bugs, and rather than you respect it you are mind blown / questioning their own experience that they may have without them even saying 'everyone must have the same experience as me simply because I had it, sample size of 1!' LOL

Which phone. Battery life is pretty good on my phone with iOS 26 and Apple Intelligence enabled. I will say I think battery life on my new iPad Pro m5 is not that good and hoping that will increase.

So you have good battery life on one device on iOS 26 and not great on another, but you can't accept the possibility that for that same device someone else may have an entirely different experience than you, based on perception differences and many variables since we all don't do the same things on our phones or have the same setups? Odd.

You truly don't see the hypocrisy in ANY of this?

I'm not sure what statement that I've made here that sheds my alliegence to the fruit company, but if that's your opinion of me that's alright ig lol. It's interesting that you think that anyone that disagrees with you is just an Apple shill.

When you are unable to articulate any of your positions, especially in light of supporting evidence to the contrary, what other conclusion is there? For the record, I didn't call you a 'shill' specifically. I said you have blind emotional loyalty to the company that is repellent to any and all evidence to the contrary. If it was any other company...

You say cite stuff because you claim I am making up 50% and just pulled a number out of a hat, so I do.

You say not statistically significant, I point to how n=2000 is.

Then you just move on to 'well I just disagree.'

I respect you disagreeing, but given that's all you say is you disagree, which is where we began, 🤷‍♂️

 

[8483011]

So we 'can't know' the future of set to expire certs for devices capable of iOS 26 that have been purposefully kept on iOS 18, even though it's spelled out in changelogs for walled off 18.7.4 update does have updated certs that is exclusive to legacy devices because it 'hasn't happened yet' despite having iOS 6 to 7 precedent of the same thing..

But on top of that, you don't think iOS 27 will be 'all that different' than iOS 26 based on precedent of 7 to 8 not being that different (cross device handoff, iCloud Photo Library, interactive notifications mean nothing to you?), even though iOS 27 WWDC features haven't been announced or occurred?
iPhoneOS 1 to 2 was quite different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone_OS_2

I guess App Store was a rather insignificant addition.

more evidence of someone saying they're experiencing bugs, and rather than you respect it you are mind blown / questioning their own experience that they may have without them even saying 'everyone must have the same experience as me simply because I had it, sample size of 1!' LOL

So you have good battery life on one device on iOS 26 and not great on another, but you can't accept the possibility that for that same device someone else may have an entirely different experience than you, based on perception differences and many variables since we all don't do the same things on our phones or have the same setups? Odd.

You truly don't see the hypocrisy in ANY of this?


When you are unable to articulate any of your positions, especially in light of supporting evidence to the contrary, what other conclusion is there? For the record, I didn't call you a 'shill' specifically. I said you have blind emotional loyalty to the company that is repellent to any and all evidence to the contrary. If it was any other company...

You say cite stuff because you claim I am making up 50% and just pulled a number out of a hat, so I do.

You say not statistically significant, I point to how n=2000 is.

Then you just move on to 'well I just disagree.'

I respect you disagreeing, but given that's all you say is you disagree, which is where we began, 🤷‍♂️

I have plenty of counters to things you've said, they're just not worth my time. You seem to have an immovable opinion, and I don't really care for arguing for the sake of arguing. You didn't make this post to have a discussion on the topic, you made the post to tell everyone "how it is", at least that's how it feels for anyone in opposition to you lol. If in your eyes that means I am unable to articulate, then whoop. I don't really care for the anonymous opinion of anyone on this site, sorry dood.

 

[thadoggfather]

I have plenty of counters to things you've said, they're just not worth my time. You seem to have an immovable opinion, and I don't really care for arguing for the sake of arguing. You didn't make this post to have a discussion on the topic, you made the post to tell everyone "how it is", at least that's how it feels for anyone in opposition to you lol. If in your eyes that means I am unable to articulate, then whoop. I don't really care for the anonymous opinion of anyone on this site, sorry dood.

That’s all so convenient. Engage in discussion endlessly but only now are you at a point of realizing futility

The more obvious observation is you are out of arguments and can’t counter anything put forth today

I honorably accept your resignation in debate.

We’re also way past 18.7.4 update and now at the point of questioning the 50% figure which you said I made up. Verifiably incorrect.

 

[8483011]

That’s all so convenient. Engage in discussion endlessly but only now are you at a point of realizing futility

The more obvious observation is you are out of arguments and can’t counter anything put forth today

I honorably accept your resignation in debate.

We’re also way past 18.7.4 update and now at the point of questioning the 50% figure which you said I made up. Verifiably incorrect.

I realized the futility of this conversation days ago lol, like I said I'm just here to kill time. Also can you find somewhere I said you made it up? I literally just asked where you got the number from lmao. The only mental gymnastics that are occuring are in your head my guy, take a breather.

 

[I7guy]

So we 'can't know' the future of set to expire certs for devices capable of iOS 26 that have been purposefully kept on iOS 18, even though it's spelled out in changelogs for walled off 18.7.4 update does have updated certs that is exclusive to legacy devices because it 'hasn't happened yet' despite having iOS 6 to 7 precedent of the same thing..

But on top of that, you don't think iOS 27 will be 'all that different' than iOS 26 based on precedent of 7 to 8 not being that different (cross device handoff, iCloud Photo Library, interactive notifications mean nothing to you?), even though iOS 27 WWDC features haven't been announced or occurred?
iPhoneOS 1 to 2 was quite different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone_OS_2

I guess App Store was a rather insignificant addition.

more evidence of someone saying they're experiencing bugs, and rather than you respect it you are mind blown / questioning their own experience that they may have without them even saying 'everyone must have the same experience as me simply because I had it, sample size of 1!' LOL

So you have good battery life on one device on iOS 26 and not great on another, but you can't accept the possibility that for that same device someone else may have an entirely different experience than you, based on perception differences and many variables since we all don't do the same things on our phones or have the same setups? Odd.

You truly don't see the hypocrisy in ANY of this?

People who elect not to upgrade are causing their own issues. This is not an apple problem and apple isn’t forcing you to upgrade.

To address the iOS 26 to iOS 27 upgrade, No I do not think iOS 27 will resolve the “issues” that some posters have with ios 26. iOS 27 will definitely have some new functions, nobody is saying it won’t.

And yeah it’s one thing to have a bug that stops your workflow and another thing that is a visual glitch and yet another thing where “I don’t like it”. LOL. The latter is where many of the comments seem like they are hanging out.

As far as battery life, I can accept battery life is all over the place but if one specific device has good battery life, I would expect most owners of that specific device to have good battery life as well. Those who claim otherwise imo is not a bug.

And I dont believe the 50% low watermark is where the adoption is, but of course only apple has the more accurate numbers.

 

[thadoggfather]

Where does that number come from? Or is it a trust me bro?

You didn’t say I made it up here? Weird.

 

[8483011]

You didn’t say I made it up here? Weird.

Correct, I don't see those words anywhere in the quoted post

 

[HouseLannister]

 

[HouseLannister]

So this entire argument is that sometime in 2025, Apple put a time bomb certificate in iOS 18 to force you to update to iOS 26, even though the time bomb goes off in 2027... the year iOS 27 is out? And they did this back in the past because they knew in the future that the adoption rate was going to be low? And you are mad that they were transparent about it by providing free updates to other people who could not go to iOS 26, thus exposing their evil plans rather than just hiding it? Got it.

 

[Blue Quark]

in the iOS 12.5.8, iOS 15.8.6, and iOS 18.7.4 release notes, Apple says:



—

The implications of this update are insane and scummy tbh. essentially anyone on a device that can support iOS 26 will be forced to update to a later version by January 2027 or apple services will stop working. And you can’t update to these newest versions with latest certificate *unless* you have a device that only goes up to 12/15/18 geez.

So if you’re staying behind purposefully on say iOS 18, even the last one you could grab 18.7.3, you only have a year before you can either OTA to some extended support EOL iOS 26 security update or presumably iOS 27 by then since we are talking about Jan 2027 deadline

EDIT 2/4/26:
Upon further review, there is also past precedent for this in iOS 7 days despite peoples' repeated, committed denial of it (or in many cases incorrectly interpreting the 'argument' I've outlined based on release notes and 18.7.4 that has the new certs not being signed specifically for IOS 26 capable devices):

iOS 6 Users on Devices Able to Run iOS 7 Must Upgrade to Fix FaceTime

Apple today released a new support document, detailing the issue behind the recent problems some iOS 6 users have been experiencing with FaceTime. According to Apple, a bug resulting from an expired device certificate has rendered FaceTime unusable on older versions of iOS and the only solution...

www.macrumors.com

Y'know, thadoggfather, the only reason I have macOS in my house right now is that I bought a 2020 MBA (back in 2020) because I wanted a new laptop and wanted to keep my hand in new technology (what with me being a technology enthusiast)... but honestly, if Apple is pissing you off that badly, why not do what I did and switch to something else, like Linux Mint (or Endeavor, or Ubuntu, or...) where you don't have to live with forced obsolescence, or a corporation which gives gold bricks to curry favor with a government which shoots people on the street while taking a wrecking ball to our economy and alliances with the rest of the world.

 

[8483011]

Y'know, thadoggfather, the only reason I have macOS in my house right now is that I bought a 2020 MBA (back in 2020) because I wanted a new laptop and wanted to keep my hand in new technology (what with me being a technology enthusiast)... but honestly, if Apple is pissing you off that badly, why not do what I did and switch to something else, like Linux Mint (or Endeavor, or Ubuntu, or...) where you don't have to live with forced obsolescence, or a corporation which gives gold bricks to curry favor with a government which shoots people on the street while taking a wrecking ball to our economy and alliances with the rest of the world.

Well... what else would we have to be mad about then?!