Apple Optimistic About Future, Lots of 'Surprises' in the Works for Fall

[Winni]

Why do so many people here assume there has to be something new and revolutionary every month or so?

Because that expectation is the only thing that keeps Apple afloat. Without the constant hype, Apple is just another boring IT company - but without the hype it's one that sells overpriced products that can barely compete with the rest of the market.

The German "Spiegel" published an article today in which they said that normalcy has finally caught up with Apple and that they are now just another Microsoft, Google or Facebook. The only problem is that a "normal" image won't work for Apple. The hype is essential for their success, because without the hype, an iPhone is just an expensive smartphone that's no better than anything else on the market and an iMac is just a PC that's incompatible to the rest of the world and that - even after 30 years - still cannot run your standard business software without virtualization software.

Apple needs the hype badly or else people will discover that they can do the same things with other products that can save them a lot of money, too.

 

[Asriel]

My contract is up on my 4S so I'd like a new iPhone now, but in a way I'm relieved. From the absence of hardware leaks there seemed little chance of a new iPhone being more than a 4SSS (XL) and I don't want to go to android to get a phone which feels like something new unless I have to.

Hopefully this timescale gives apple the opportunity to produce the step up in hardware and software that we've hoped for, rather than the incremental bump we've become used to and feared would be repeated. Certainly increases the likelihood of the fingerprint scanner being in the upcoming phone rather than the one after.

 

[Fishticks]

Oh yeah ! People are getting so excited with new Apple products to come !!!
Look: already 78 comments in this day old piece of news !

Amazing !

 

[Chupa Chupa]

I wouldn't bet on this theory. There's tons of growth potential left just in the markets Apple currently competes. Add another new product category or two...

I remember when the iPod market was tapering off. Plenty of "growth is dead at Apple" predictions back in those days too.

Right, but again my concern is that all the products are being launched approx the same time which never happened before. Products were spaced out to give consumers time to "digest" their purchase. That allowed consumers to purchase Apple products almost year round as they were released.

He said "surprises in the works for fall", he didn't say "everything will be announced in fall."

Right, but Apple also announced that this current quarter's revenue would be lower than analysts expectations, and would break it's 3Q growth record going back to '03. When a company informs current quarter revenue will be down YOY there's only a few reasons for that, and in Apple's case, the most logical one, given Cook's "fall" message, is that Apple isn't going to have much new to sell until the next (4Q) at the earliest. So my concern still exists that products are going to be bunched up, forcing consumers to pick and choose rather than take one of each.

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This is where Steve had the edge, the share holders just kept quiet because they knew he didn't care what they thought. 'Just concentrate on producing great products and the rest will follow' was a very good tactic.

No, it's more that Jobs created a track record that indicated he knew what he was doing, thus earned respect. To-date Cook has mostly made or reigned over bad decisions or news. The entire past year has been a bucket of bad mojo for Apple. Some of it Cook's doing, some of the result of a showy trial by fire put on by the peanut gallery. But Cook has now set his marker to the fall. If he succeeds he'll be afforded the same level respect as Jobs in 2003.

 

[Neodym]

Right, but again my concern is that all the products are being launched approx the same time which never happened before. [...] So my concern still exists that products are going to be bunched up, forcing consumers to pick and choose rather than take one of each.

...not to mention the logistical nightmare if suddenly a couple of product-lines compete about scarce transportation and warehouse resources. Especially with high-volume product lines like the new iPhone and iPad in the equation...

Perhaps there won't be a choice dilemma for the customers at all, as it might simply become a question of "do i buy the one product available at my place / in my country or not?".

 

[Mr.damien]

Wow, Fall 2013? How about some new stuff before then?

It takes to to create new things. It's not like creating a new galaxy s4...

Once Apple will release this stuff that took years, then the competition will stole it in few months. That's the way of the leader.

 

[gregorsamsa]

"Fall" definitely pushes the Mac Pro beyond what I'm willing to wait for. Time to start shopping for my new PC parts!

The "Fall" also seems too late to stop AAPL's SP tanking further. The usual relative secretiveness only worked with Jobs at the helm as the man was a visionary, a true genius, the products exciting. Sadly, his influence is now ebbing away.

Maybe today's AAPL needs to give potential customers a better idea of what's happening & when, before even more switch over to other platforms. All in all, the timeframe seems disappointing.

 

[SpyderBite]

The "Fall" also seems too late to stop AAPL's SP tanking further.

You sound like a Trader, not an Investor. Only people who Trade AAPL stock are concerned about a Fall announcement for new products. Investors are interested in impacts on funds but hardly concerned about a fall announcement because they're on a 5, 20 and 30 year return matrix.

Unless you trade options or are day trading AAPL, this announcement and majority of the news featured on rumor sites, is nothing to be concerned about.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Perhaps there won't be a choice dilemma for the customers at all, as it might simply become a question of "do i buy the one product available at my place / in my country or not?".

But that is an even worse scenario. Cook has already admitted the iMac launch was premature and the wrong decision. If Apple then launches a plethora of new popular products which are constrained by manufacturing issues or late ramp up then Apple just looks like the gang that couldn't shoot straight. But I don't think that will happen. Whatever products Apple launches in the fall will be in good supply because they simply have to for Cook to not look incompetent.

 

[the8thark]

Oh my god what are people going to do for the next 5 months if they don't have a shiny new iToy to play with.

Of course sites like MR will go nuts because it will be tougher and tougher to fill their pages with stuff people want to click on.

Yes. And have multiple articles for the same event. (Just like now. One article about the earnings call and several more articles about specific points in the earnings call. Mind you those specific points were already mentioned in the first earnings call article here on MacRumors.)

Seems there is a war between the rumour sites for more page hits. And the rumour sites will do anything to win. Unethical practices? Does not matter to them as long as they are winning (ie getting more page hits).

 

[Chupa Chupa]

You sound like a Trader, not an Investor. Only people who Trade AAPL stock are concerned about a Fall announcement for new products.

Disagree. I've had my shares since 2002 and I'm quite concerned about the fall announcement and it's affect on earnings, both in that quarter and in the quarters surrounding which presumably will be light on new product releases. This is new territory for Apple. In the recent past releases have been timed by so that every quarter has some new product launch to help carry that quarter.

Moreover, Cook has now set high expectations for the fall. He doesn't have Jobs power of mind control so these product now have to actually be spectacular and WOW! or AAPL goes another leg down.

 

[Digital Skunk]

So basically, we can expect the same thing we've been anticipating for the last 6 months.

Apple has made the same statement about, "exciting and new productions" just about every year.

 

[alent1234]

it was true when the ipad was new, but now the last thing i want to buy is electronics in the spring. summer is not too far off and i don't want my kids indoors playing on the ipad all day long

and christmas is a perfect holiday to give your kids an iphone. since the refresh was in october its a safe buy. otherwise it would be a gift card or some other new phone

Right, but again my concern is that all the products are being launched approx the same time which never happened before. Products were spaced out to give consumers time to "digest" their purchase. That allowed consumers to purchase Apple products almost year round as they were released.



Right, but Apple also announced that this current quarter's revenue would be lower than analysts expectations, and would break it's 3Q growth record going back to '03. When a company informs current quarter revenue will be down YOY there's only a few reasons for that, and in Apple's case, the most logical one, given Cook's "fall" message, is that Apple isn't going to have much new to sell until the next (4Q) at the earliest. So my concern still exists that products are going to be bunched up, forcing consumers to pick and choose rather than take one of each.

----------



No, it's more that Jobs created a track record that indicated he knew what he was doing, thus earned respect. To-date Cook has mostly made or reigned over bad decisions or news. The entire past year has been a bucket of bad mojo for Apple. Some of it Cook's doing, some of the result of a showy trial by fire put on by the peanut gallery. But Cook has now set his marker to the fall. If he succeeds he'll be afforded the same level respect as Jobs in 2003.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

it was true when the ipad was new, but now the last thing i want to buy is electronics in the spring. summer is not too far off and i don't want my kids indoors playing on the ipad all day long

and christmas is a perfect holiday to give your kids an iphone. since the refresh was in october its a safe buy. otherwise it would be a gift card or some other new phone

Yes, it was true. That is my point. Consumers grab the iPad WHEN Apple launched it. Same for iPhone and iPad. They didn't wait until holiday season, though, of course, Apple sold plenty then. When Apple scattered product releases year round people bought "one of each." It's what helped Apple grow so rapidly. But are you really going to spend $2000+ just on Apple toys in one quarter? I doubt it. Most consumers can't.

And whether your kids play indoors w/ the iPad all day long is a parenting issue, not Apple's. My post is about Apple retaining steady earnings growth, which is hard to do if the majority of a company's product come out in one quarter.

 

[jasvncnt]

It takes to to create new things. It's not like creating a new galaxy s4...

Once Apple will release this stuff that took years, then the competition will stole it in few months. That's the way of the leader.

...or the iphone 3gs...or the iphone 4s...ipad 2...3...4..

 

[Neodym]

But that is an even worse scenario.

Maybe i should have set visible sarcasm tags...

Cook has already admitted the iMac launch was premature and the wrong decision.

Well - wasn't Cook always tauted as "Mr Operations Guy"? The guy properly organizing all the details so Jobs could shine?

If Apple then launches a plethora of new popular products which are constrained by manufacturing issues or late ramp up then Apple just looks like the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

If they really aim for releasing most of their products together in fall, i'm really worried that scenario may become reality.

But I don't think that will happen. Whatever products Apple launches in the fall will be in good supply because they simply have to for Cook to not look incompetent.

Well - he did not cover himself with glory in the past, when e.g. new iPhones had to be flown in by tremendously expensive airfreight, as the "standard" logistics channels were more or less completely booked.

Now imagine they'd really introduce a new iPhone together with a new iPad and a couple of other products in fall, among them perhaps one with a real WOW! factor. There are only so many ships, containers, trucks and airplanes on this planet and Apple is far from being the only one wanting to book capacity.

Unless the interpretation of everything coming more or less together in fall is wrong or Cook has booked all fall capacities a year or more in advance (which i doubt, as there would be no headroom whatsoever for delays), i better get myself some popcorn to be prepared for watching it all falling to pieces...

 

[alent1234]

Yes, it was true. That is my point. Consumers grab the iPad WHEN Apple launched it. Same for iPhone and iPad. They didn't wait until holiday season, though, of course, Apple sold plenty then. When Apple scattered product releases year round people bought "one of each." It's what helped Apple grow so rapidly. But are you really going to spend $2000+ just on Apple toys in one quarter? I doubt it. Most consumers can't.

And whether your kids play indoors w/ the iPad all day long is a parenting issue, not Apple's. My post is about Apple retaining steady earnings growth, which is hard to do if the majority of a company's product come out in one quarter.

people didn't buy their kids $199 iphones. now that they are free on contract or $99 its a nice gift for the holidays. or buying one as a gift for someone else

the original iphone owners are a tiny percentage of the current smartphone using population

 

[ronwasserman]

I'd be happy with a new Mac Pro

I think this will happen. Considering he said a new Mac Pro would be coming in late 2013, and now this, its apparent it'll happen this fall.

I bet the new model will be amazing.

 

[Robert.Walter]

"A: One of our areas for growth are potential new categories."

Damn! That's a new growth category in and of itself!

 

[paulsalter]

people didn't buy their kids $199 iphones. now that they are free on contract or $99 its a nice gift for the holidays. or buying one as a gift for someone else

does the US not have a minimum term contract and a set fee per month when buying the phones cheaply?

in the UK the iPhone might only cost £99, but then you have a 2 year contract which will add up to about £800 (or more)in total

 

[Chupa Chupa]

people didn't buy their kids $199 iphones. now that they are free on contract or $99 its a nice gift for the holidays. or buying one as a gift for someone else

the original iphone owners are a tiny percentage of the current smartphone using population

Apple's customer base is far more dynamic than parents buying iPhones for kids. You seem to be stuck on the whole Parent buying for kid thing. I realize that might be your world, but not everyones. A lot of parents buy toys for themselves, and single people w/o kids especially have lots more spare change in their pocket.

Also, I see a whole lot of kids at ball games, movies, and other public planes flashing around iPhone 5's. Also see lots of Galaxy S III. So certainly there are a lot of parents buying kids the current model phones, not last years leftovers.

 

[carlgo]

Apple is in an interesting space, spectacularly big but still at the mercy of others.

The carriers and the data transmission infrastructure are lacking.

Apple is totally dependent Asian suppliers and manufacturers, many with their own agendas and looming problems.

Overseas tax avoidance policies are likely to change at some point.

Content providers have thwarted Apple's alternative distribution plans.

It will be interesting to see if Apple just hunkers down or if it is proactive and uses its billions to deal with these big issues.

 

[mentholiptus]

All I want to see is Logic Pro X and Aperture 4. It's been 3-4 years since these have had a major revision (retina and 64bit don't count, I'm talking major new features and workflow enhancements like their competitors).

I realize everything works as it is, but I need to know Apple is still committed to these apps, and competing for customers in this space.

Otherwise, new iPhones, iPads, iPods, and Macs are inevitable. These apps have gone far too long with no love.

 

[Neodym]

Considering he said a new Mac Pro would be coming in late 2013

No, he didn't! The original wording was "we’re working on something really great for later next year". No matter how much rumor sites and fans try to read "new Mac Pro" into this - a solid and unmistakable commitment looks different.

 

[Mums]

That's what they should be focusing on right now. We don't need a revolutionary product every year. We need the last few years worth of revolutionary products to become fully realized. And we need internet services to improve, a lot. That is more important than a TV right now, especially considering that the TV problem that needs a solution is much harder to come by due to the content issues, and Apple can't do much about that real fast. There will be more, and I have a lot of faith in Apple's ability to stay relevant and on the cutting edge if they stay true to the Apple philosophy, but right now, I really think "evolutionary" and "refinement" are of the essence.

They have a huge lead in the mobile market space (based on every statistic that matters) and look set to be the most resilient of it's mobile competitors today. That's great, but it doesn't mean anything if the core products don't continue to get a lot better. As great as iOS is, there are a lot of core issues that could stand to be improved early on in this game so as to ensure future success and more great products. And obviously, iCloud needs to get a lot better, and I'm not even one of the people that thinks it's that bad. But "mostly good at syncing documents, great at backing up your devices," is just not going to cut it as time goes on, and despite their obvious secrecy, don't think for a second Apple doesn't know this.

That's why they don't release "revolutionary products" every year.

I don't know what I'm going to do when my 2011 17" gets old. No more workhorse laptops for me?

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Because that expectation is the only thing that keeps Apple afloat. Without the constant hype, Apple is just another boring IT company - but without the hype it's one that sells overpriced products that can barely compete with the rest of the market.

The German "Spiegel" published an article today in which they said that normalcy has finally caught up with Apple and that they are now just another Microsoft, Google or Facebook. The only problem is that a "normal" image won't work for Apple. The hype is essential for their success, because without the hype, an iPhone is just an expensive smartphone that's no better than anything else on the market and an iMac is just a PC that's incompatible to the rest of the world and that - even after 30 years - still cannot run your standard business software without virtualization software.

Apple needs the hype badly or else people will discover that they can do the same things with other products that can save them a lot of money, too.

That's only partially true. "Business software" has in large part migrated to OS X, unless you're referring to Office which deserves to die. You're right about the hype and Apple becoming a dinosaur - but that is unfortunate isn't it? Apple really was light years ahead of every other large company and truly revolutionized the world of personal computing for the better. I know I've benefitted from it tremendously. I have never been a fanboy at all, but I grew up in the Bay Area and have watched the progress of Apple from the beginning. It was special, and it's a shame to see it now in the hands of people who are not as capable or innovative as Steve Jobs.

I actually feel a gnawing desperation - something akin to addiction - that I'm going to have to at some point switch over to Windows when Apple discontinues all of its products save for the iDevices which I like, but cannot use in a professional capacity. I hold hope like a candle that some new company will arise which can provide the next enlightened step in the evolution of personal computing.