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Apr 12, 2001
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Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has historically been rather conservative in her predictions of Apple's performance, issued a new report yesterday (via Fortune) suggesting that Apple could sell nearly 200 million iPhones next year. The number would be more than double that of this year's iPhone sales, which currently stand at 56 million ahead of a blockbuster quarter that is expected to add perhaps 30-35 million to that number.
- iPhones are selling surprisingly briskly. Based on the survey and last week's comments from AT&T (T), Huberty estimates that Apple (AAPL) could ship anywhere from 31 to 36 million iPhones this quarter -- as much as 20% higher than the 30 million she's modeling and nearly 30% higher than the 28 million Wall Street is expecting.

- iPhone demand is accelerating. "Surprisingly," she writes, "US consumers expect to buy more iPhones in C1Q12 than C4Q11" (emphasis hers). Even discounting the survey results 10%, that suggests Apple could sell 13 million iPhones in the U.S. and 41 million worldwide next quarter. Morgan Stanley's model has Apple selling 30 million iPhones in calendar Q1 2012.
Huberty's predictions are based on her own research and a consumer survey by AlphaWise that pegs demand for the iPhone next year 40% higher than anticipated by Morgan Stanley in its "base case" scenario.

morgan_stanley_cy12_iphone_ipad-500x265.jpg



On the tablet side, the survey data points to a similar story, with Huberty's survey data indicating that Apple could see sales of over 80 million iPads next year, well above her firm's estimate of 52 million units. Apple has sold 25 million iPads so far this year, with analysts estimating that Apple may add 13-14 million units to that total in the holiday quarter.

Article Link: Apple Predicted to Sell Nearly 200 Million iPhones Next Year
 

HyperX13

macrumors 6502
Sep 3, 2009
349
7
Only if apple fixes the batteries on these iPhones! I have two coworkers that are apple fanatics that jumped ship to go to androids! I am on my 3rd iPhone 4s. So far so good, but last two were good for a few weeks too.
 
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DeathChill

macrumors 68000
Jul 15, 2005
1,662
90
I'm sorry but that's a hugely crazy number that is not going to happen. Even if demand became that huge (which I doubt), I don't think Apple could supply enough.
 
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Yvan256

macrumors 603
Jul 5, 2004
5,050
929
Canada
I want voice-only FaceTime so that we can finally drop the wireless carriers. Sure you're going to need an open wi-fi connection, but the carriers prices are just insane.

And can they finally publish the FaceTime specifications already, as Steve said they would?
 
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jz1492

macrumors member
Nov 9, 2005
81
3
Developers hedging their bets with Android are setting themselves up for a lackluster 2012 of missed opportunities.
 
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Gherkin

macrumors 6502a
Apr 9, 2004
537
186
I think they actually have a chance if the iPhone 4 moves into the "free on contract" slot next year, which I assume it will.

iPhone 4 felt to me almost like the breatout iPhone, and if it's offered free next year that could be huge.
 
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PlipPlop

macrumors 6502a
Aug 10, 2010
565
0
Unlikely to happen, ICS will convert more users to Android.
Android has over 600k new activations a day so once again it is set to smash iphone sales.
 
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Stella

macrumors G3
Apr 21, 2003
8,649
5,659
Canada
A huge number - but it's coming from an
Analyst - so the prediction probably way off!
 
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Tiger8

macrumors 68020
May 23, 2011
2,479
649
I'm sorry but that's a hugely crazy number that is not going to happen. Even if demand became that huge (which I doubt), I don't think Apple could supply enough.

Apple has been aggressively pushing the iPhone 4S in international markets, more than any other phone. I am sure they upped production, there is no point in doing multi-million dollar worldwide advertising campaigns for something you don't have.
 
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ipoppy

macrumors 6502
Oct 12, 2006
423
9
UK
I know I am off the topic here but .....what would be next killer feature in iPhone 5? I am not talking about screen size increasment. It seems there is nothing out there to wish for....just better processor, design and battery I guess.
 
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3N16MA

macrumors 65816
Jul 23, 2009
1,011
177
Space
iPhone sales per year (roughly rounded)

2008: 13.6 million
2009: 25.2 million
2010: 47.4 million
2011: 86-91 million (estimated)


iPhone sales have been nearly doubling for the past 4 years. 200 million may be a little high but not that crazy. Hey guys look, I'm an analyst!
 
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nuckinfutz

macrumors 603
Jul 3, 2002
5,502
314
Middle Earth
Only if apple fixes the batteries on these iPhones! I have two coworkers that are apple fanatics that jumped ship to go to androids! I am on my 3rd iPhone 4s. So far so good, but last two were good for a few weeks too.

That's like jumping out the frying pan into the fire. Androids aren't known for battery life so leaving the iPhone for this would be silly.

No Apple fanatic buys an Android phone unless they have to for some reason.
 
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AppleScruff1

macrumors G4
Feb 10, 2011
10,026
2,948
I wonder when every human on earth will have one? Then the sales will begin to drop. So much for being unique.
 
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Ugg

macrumors 68000
Apr 7, 2003
1,992
16
Penryn
Apple has been aggressively pushing the iPhone 4S in international markets, more than any other phone. I am sure they upped production, there is no point in doing multi-million dollar worldwide advertising campaigns for something you don't have.

Exactly. This is about global markets and China will probably soon become the biggest market for the iPhone.
 
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Coconut Bean

macrumors 6502
Jul 21, 2011
384
373
I feel like this is a little bit optimistic. Even if iPhone would sell 40 millions this quarter it wouldnt reach 100 million devices this year. Isn't it a bit too optimistic to expect Apple to double amount of iPhones sells next years?

Samsung just reached 300 million devices about a week ago, expecting that apple will sell twothird of the amount as Samsung sells is just ridiculously optimistic..
 
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scrapple

macrumors regular
Sep 23, 2004
191
5
just bought a windows phone ... sorry apple.
HTC Titan.

Thing is the biz
 
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nuckinfutz

macrumors 603
Jul 3, 2002
5,502
314
Middle Earth
just bought a windows phone ... sorry apple.
HTC Titan.

Thing is the biz

Ridiculous screen size (4.7)
Bluetooth 2.1 (two generations old)
720p video recording
Single Core Processor.
Minuscule software market

I think Apple is probably more sorry for you
 
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dokujaryu

macrumors 6502
May 3, 2011
359
12
Irvine, California
-- Could be true:

Almost everyone I know who bought an iPhone 4s would buy an iPhone 5 next year immediately when it comes out, regardless of contract break costs. Which basically means an iPhone 5 is worth ~$550 to them. They are looking for some of the rumored features such as more face of the phone used for screen, better battery, 4G LTE, etc. Probably like most guys on a family plan, I let my wife use our family plan phone upgrade to the 4s so she can have the better camera (for the kids). I'll probably wait to upgrade to the 5 when it comes out next year since it will be "free" to me.

-- But the iPad 3 seems more juicy...

However, the iPhone 4s is crazy popular and an extremely well polished product. It really is a first world problem to complain about a phone that is that well done. I would think when the iPhone 5 comes out, most normal non-tech people will go for a 4s at $100 or a 4 at $1 so they can justify an iPad 3. The iPad is very hot, and I would think some people are going to get or keep their 4 / 4s just to be able to afford an iPad 3, especially if the iPad 3 really raises the bar on laptop replacement even further.


At the end of the day, the iPhone is a PHONE, the iPad could replace many aspects of your computer. I really think a lot of consumers who have chosen Apple as their platform will be trying to decide which combo of iPhone and iPad to afford. Is a 3g iPhone 4 with a LTE iPad 3 a better combo? Tough call. I'm not an analyst, but I think at the very least Apple needs to strategize the release of the iPhone 5 and iPad 3 so as cost conscious consumers can get both if they want and not feel that they have to choose between them.
 
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GreyStreet

macrumors member
Nov 16, 2011
44
0
That's like jumping out the frying pan into the fire. Androids aren't known for battery life so leaving the iPhone for this would be silly.
No Apple fanatic buys an Android phone unless they have to for some reason.

This. The only thing I don't like about my Android is the battery life. We always have to use the wife's iPhone for Netflix parenting in the car.
 
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