Apple Predicted to Sell Nearly 200 Million iPhones Next Year

[superman23]

iPhone sales per year (roughly rounded)

2008: 13.6 million
2009: 25.2 million
2010: 47.4 million
2011: 86-91 million (estimated)


iPhone sales have been nearly doubling for the past 4 years. 200 million may be a little high but not that crazy. Hey guys look, I'm an analyst!

this is because Apple has been introducing the iPhone to more countries since its introduction. At least in the USA, I would expect iPhone sales to be flat within a year, especially after adding Verizon/Sprint.

OK, please hire me Morgan Stanley for only $2 million per year. Thanks bye.

 

[RWinOR]

I wonder when every human on earth will have one? Then the sales will begin to drop. So much for being unique.

Sales won't drop people will just upgrade. Iphone 5, 6, 7, etc.

 

[PCClone]

That's like jumping out the frying pan into the fire. Androids aren't known for battery life so leaving the iPhone for this would be silly.

No Apple fanatic buys an Android phone unless they have to for some reason.

Like if they have TMO like me. No Andriod yet, but getting close.

 

[SandynJosh]

I wonder when every human on earth will have one? Then the sales will begin to drop. So much for being unique.

That's like saying once every one has a TV, no one will want to buy a new one.

Gee, everyone has a car, I'd better dump my auto stock...

Some people's logic defies logic...

 

[RWinOR]

Ever heard of Skype? Does everything you want, and then some - and, you can actually call someone that doesn't live in Apple-land. Imagine that!

OH no.... Why on earth would we want to do that?

Cheers

 

[SandynJosh]

But she didn't do a SUPPLY analysis (at least it's not shown). She's only looking at the demand side.

Apple has been selling ALL the phones it can make (and having scheduling releases to new markets like China). This means the constraint is probably on the supply. I say probably because we don't really know... because the analysis is not shown.

Just because demand is 200 million, doesn't mean that you have the capacity to make 200 million phones. So the question isn't how many they can sell, it's also how many can they make.

What if they only can ramp up to make 140 million phones for 2012??? where's the analysis for this?.

THAT's a topic for another day. In the meantime, Brazil's production is now coming on line.

Apple is doing better and better. It will not be a surprise, when I see 200 million per year.
But, there is a threat. Android phones are becoming more and more important. HTC was good, but now we have also Samsung and Google, selling millions of phones...
Lets see what will hapen..

Hmmm...Google selling millions of phones...how did that earth-shaking factoid get past the everyone but you???

Calling it "cheating" is rather daft. But the reason for Samsung selling 300 million phones are phones like the Samsung E1080 for £14.99 without a contract. Of course they should make and sell phones like this, but it takes about 30 or 40 of these to make the same revenue as one iPhone (or one high end Samsung phone).

It takes several Samsung "high end" phones to make the same revenue as ONE iPhone. No one makes revenue like Apple does.

 

[divinox]

OH no.... Why on earth would we want to do that?

Cheers

Scary thought, huh? Interacting with the world outside of the garden. Definitely not Apple approved! ; )

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That's like saying once every one has a TV, no one will want to buy a new one.

Gee, everyone has a car, I'd better dump my auto stock...

Some people's logic defies logic...

Yours, you mean? Given the choice, where should you place your money: A saturated market with (or without) little differentiation, or, an emerging market with vast growth potential? Just look at the H&M stock. As organic growth becomes harder, pay off for potential investors becomes less. That said, you can certainly make a nice buck out of mature markets (if you manage to control it - cf. Windows/Intel) - but the buck - from a long term investment perspective - will always be greater when there is possible growth ahead.

Disclaimer: Theres nothing wrong with owning steady dividend stock. Heck, i own my fair share of H&M. Just saying. His post - while not overly serious, had a point.

 

[YMark]

Be interested in other things you don't like. I honestly like my phone better in almost every other category than my wife's outside of battery life. Maybe it's because I customized mine to the point that things are much easier and faster for me. But, if someone else picked it up they'd likely have no clue how to open anything.

Here are a few just off the top of my head....
- Laggy as all get out
- Bluetooth randomly drops
- email sucks (compared to Blackberry)
- if I want to flash a ROM, need to set up all screens again
- gps is slow, slow, slow

I'm running 2.2 (Bionix rom by Team Whiskey) on a Samsung Vibrant. Can't expect Samsung / T-Mobile to ever release a firmware update. This phone is my last Samsung, and I'm not too enamored with Android, although I do like my Kindle Fire.

I'm moving to an iPhone as soon as my contract is over. The crap email and Google sync is not something I want to deal with any longer. Much less always being hooked to a charger.

 

[TallManNY]

My iPhone 4 is serving me fine, but I can also upgrade at the end of February for $200. I will get the 4S and probably ebay my 4. I could also hold off on my update until the fall for the iPhone 5, but why deny myself an improved phone for six months especially when there will be no cost issue to upgrade. When the iPhone 5 comes out, if it really is a significant upgrade, I will just buy it full price and again ebay my 4S for $300 or so. So even with this frequent flipping, my iPhone 5 will only cost me about $200.

 

[Mechanic]

Samsung cheats by realising a phone every 2-3 months. Well, not cheats but you're comparing a company that has multi-devices against one device from another vendor?

200 Million is achievable if they keep the ball rolling.

You also dont realize that over half of those 300 million phones that samsung sells are dumb phones or "feature phones". Most are not Galaxy S II class type smart phones.
Samsung just lumps all of there cell phones in one big lump. It sounds better that way. Samsung also refuses to say how many of a new model of smart phone they sell. They dont even report it in there 10k filing. Apple does report actual sales to the end customer in there 10K. You can look it up.

Just to add checking samsungs website they currently sell 142 different models of cell phones worldwide.

 

[shompa]

I know I am off the topic here but .....what would be next killer feature in iPhone 5? I am not talking about screen size increasment. It seems there is nothing out there to wish for....just better processor, design and battery I guess.

Iphone5:
A6, bigger screen, NFC, 12 megapixel camera, double flash memory, LTE.

But them?
Iphone6: What more is there to put into a phone? Quod core ARM15 will be faster then most 2-3 year old PCs. And that with a lightweight UNIX system.

 

[gnasher729]

It takes several Samsung "high end" phones to make the same revenue as ONE iPhone. No one makes revenue like Apple does.

??? The most expensive Samsung phones cost the same as an iPhone.

 

[tdream]

Random surveyers vs Morgan Stanley analysts. I know who to put my money on.

 

[Big D 51]

They can count me as one.

 

[rman726]

I know I am off the topic here but .....what would be next killer feature in iPhone 5? I am not talking about screen size increasment. It seems there is nothing out there to wish for....just better processor, design and battery I guess.

I think LTE is going to be a major feature for the iPhone 5.

I can see NFC being a less major feature. Although I don't really need NFC for what it does now, if it's on the iPhone, it will help push the adoption at 10 times the speed it's being adopted now. Right now, only select Android phones have it, and as a result the technology isn't really advancing that quick. With every iPhone shipping with it, that will add an instant boom to the NFC adoption.

That on top of the 4" screen I think is going to be the iPhone 5.

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Ever heard of Skype? Does everything you want, and then some - and, you can actually call someone that doesn't live in Apple-land. Imagine that!

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...and what would that do to the 3GS? If both were free on similar contracts, why would one chose the older of the two?

I really despise people who use Google Voice and Skype. I think they are complete garbage services for those of us that have to call people on Google Voice/Skype. It's great for the people actually using it as they save some money, but I have nothing but issues trying to contact my two friends who use Google Voice and Skype. They never pick up their phone when I first call them. Ever. Instead, I have to call them, leave them a voicemail, and hope their notification system decides to let them know they have a voicemail. If you don't leave a voicemail, then forget it... they will never know you called. So anyways, once they find out you called (you know in the middle of the movie that you are at with the rest of your friends who actually responded), they call you back with pitiful call quality and you can barely hear a word they are saying.

So yeah, I'm glad you guys are saving some money by not having very many minutes on your plan. But don't expect me to call you unless I absolutely have to because it's just a nightmare experience.

 

[JAT]

??? The most expensive Samsung phones cost the same as an iPhone.

But they make less profit because a model only maintains the price for a short while before VZW and ATT begin "selling" them for free or very reduced rates. Also, they update too often, spending more than Apple on R&D (I assume) and not giving any particular phone enough time to give profit.

Hence, news articles showing that Apple is making over 50% of all profit made by cellphone makers.

 

[PlipPlop]

But they make less profit because a model only maintains the price for a short while before VZW and ATT begin "selling" them for free or very reduced rates. Also, they update too often, spending more than Apple on R&D (I assume) and not giving any particular phone enough time to give profit.

Hence, news articles showing that Apple is making over 50% of all profit made by cellphone makers.

The carriers will still be buying them from Samsung at a high price, the networks just lower them to attract more customers.

 

[divinox]

I think LTE is going to be a major feature for the iPhone 5.

I can see NFC being a less major feature. Although I don't really need NFC for what it does now, if it's on the iPhone, it will help push the adoption at 10 times the speed it's being adopted now. Right now, only select Android phones have it, and as a result the technology isn't really advancing that quick. With every iPhone shipping with it, that will add an instant boom to the NFC adoption.

That on top of the 4" screen I think is going to be the iPhone 5.

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I really despise people who use Google Voice and Skype. I think they are complete garbage services for those of us that have to call people on Google Voice/Skype. It's great for the people actually using it as they save some money, but I have nothing but issues trying to contact my two friends who use Google Voice and Skype. They never pick up their phone when I first call them. Ever. Instead, I have to call them, leave them a voicemail, and hope their notification system decides to let them know they have a voicemail. If you don't leave a voicemail, then forget it... they will never know you called. So anyways, once they find out you called (you know in the middle of the movie that you are at with the rest of your friends who actually responded), they call you back with pitiful call quality and you can barely hear a word they are saying.

So yeah, I'm glad you guys are saving some money by not having very many minutes on your plan. But don't expect me to call you unless I absolutely have to because it's just a nightmare experience.

Your friends never pick up when you call, and you blame Skype? Maybe your friends is the problem. And, how would FaceTime be any better? By applying senseless limitations? Yeah. Awesome.

p.s.

Dont blame Skype for your/their ****** internet connection either.

 

[twoodcc]

now this would be great for apple! we'll see