Apple Predicted to Sell Nearly 200 Million iPhones Next Year

[nuckinfutz]

-- Could be true:

Almost everyone I know who bought an iPhone 4s would buy an iPhone 5 next year immediately when it comes out, regardless of contract break costs. Which basically means an iPhone 5 is worth ~$550 to them..

I know i'm buying a 16GB 4s next month and if the iP5 comes out with a 4" screen (which to me is about the most logical size update for single hand usage) LTE and other goodies I'm upgrading early simple as that.

200 million sounds crazy but I could see roughly 160 million based on more worldwide partnerships and Siri in many more languages driving sales.

 

[Tunster]

I feel like this is a little bit optimistic. Even if iPhone would sell 40 millions this quarter it wouldnt reach 100 million devices this year. Isn't it a bit too optimistic to expect Apple to double amount of iPhones sells next years?

Samsung just reached 300 million devices about a week ago, expecting that apple will sell twothird of the amount as Samsung sells is just ridiculously optimistic..

Samsung cheats by realising a phone every 2-3 months. Well, not cheats but you're comparing a company that has multi-devices against one device from another vendor?

200 Million is achievable if they keep the ball rolling.

 

[Hastings101]

Ridiculous screen size (4.7)
Bluetooth 2.1 (two generations old)
720p video recording
Single Core Processor.
Minuscule software market

I think Apple is probably more sorry for you

At least the battery will last more than a couple of hours

 

[unlinked]

Samsung cheats by realising a phone every 2-3 months. Well, not cheats but you're comparing a company that has multi-devices against one device from another vendor?

200 Million is achievable if they keep the ball rolling.

Why do people keep claiming Apple produce one phone when by any reasonable definition they produce at least 3 and maybe more.

 

[dokujaryu]

Ridiculous screen size (4.7)
Bluetooth 2.1 (two generations old)
720p video recording
Single Core Processor.
Minuscule software market

I think Apple is probably more sorry for you

----------

Image

Just to add the Motorola Razr to this list:

2004 Motorola Razr

73458mm3 (-25%)
99g (+12.5%)


If Apple sells more than just 120 million iPhones in a year, they will have sold more phones in a year than the entire Motorola Razr line did:

- Wikipedia
Over the RAZR's four-year run, Motorola sold more than 130 million units, becoming the best-selling clamshell phone in the world (and is still today).

 

[gnasher729]

Samsung cheats by realising a phone every 2-3 months. Well, not cheats but you're comparing a company that has multi-devices against one device from another vendor?

Calling it "cheating" is rather daft. But the reason for Samsung selling 300 million phones are phones like the Samsung E1080 for £14.99 without a contract. Of course they should make and sell phones like this, but it takes about 30 or 40 of these to make the same revenue as one iPhone (or one high end Samsung phone).

 

[JAT]

I want voice-only FaceTime so that we can finally drop the wireless carriers. Sure you're going to need an open wi-fi connection, but the carriers prices are just insane.

Isn't that already available via 3rd party apps? If you're willing to be limited to wifi, the Touch works as a phone.

 

[Usual]

Apple is doing better and better. It will not be a surprise, when I see 200 million per year.

But, there is a threat. Android phones are becoming more and more important. HTC was good, but now we have also Samsung and Google, selling millions of phones...

Lets see what will hapen..

 

[JAT]

iPhone sales per year (roughly rounded)

2008: 13.6 million
2009: 25.2 million
2010: 47.4 million
2011: 86-91 million (estimated)


iPhone sales have been nearly doubling for the past 4 years. 200 million may be a little high but not that crazy. Hey guys look, I'm an analyst!

Congrats!

Frankly, China opening up could seriously impact such numbers. 200m still seems a bit high, though. It's not just Apple's production supply capability, it's the screens and flash chips and so forth that go into the phone. The planet needs to make food, too.

 

[andiwm2003]

200 Mio iPhones X $500 (estimated average sale price for Apple) = $100 billion in sales

That should translate in $15 billion profit or so.........

 

[paul4339]

But she didn't do a SUPPLY analysis (at least it's not shown). She's only looking at the demand side.


Apple has been selling ALL the phones it can make (and having scheduling releases to new markets like China). This means the constraint is probably on the supply. I say probably because we don't really know... because the analysis is not shown.

Just because demand is 200 million, doesn't mean that you have the capacity to make 200 million phones. So the question isn't how many they can sell, it's also how many can they make.


What if they only can ramp up to make 140 million phones for 2012??? where's the analysis for this?




.

 

[markyr17]

Why do people keep claiming Apple produce one phone when by any reasonable definition they produce at least 3 and maybe more.

They release a MAXIMUM of one iPhone every year. You say 3 - but The size/color do not count as different phones. The iPhone 4s is the 4s regardless of storage capacity/color. Just because they are selling 3 different generations of iPhones from previous years, doesn't mean they produce more. Samsung, and every company does this.

Samsung releases almost a phone every 3 months. Big difference. Get it?

 

[JAT]

They release a MAXIMUM of one iPhone every year. You say 3 - but The size/color do not count as different phones. The iPhone 4s is the 4s regardless of storage capacity/color. Just because they are selling 3 different generations of iPhones from previous years, doesn't mean they produce more. Samsung, and every company does this.

Samsung releases almost a phone every 3 months. Big difference. Get it?

Well, I think the point is that Apple is not selling one model, either. People here tend to make bizarre claims about things. Apple's old model was the #2 selling smartphone in the USA last year. And there is certainly more different between 3Gs and 4 than colors.

The strange thing is that Samsung and others have a very short tail-out period for most phone models. Meaning, when model A is replaced by B, A goes out of production. Apple was expected to have that, they have the shortest such period with most of their products (laptops, for instance). But they've kept the old iPhones going and are selling millions still.

 

[Swift]

It's always "Surprisingly"

Business school grads have been taught that a corporation can't be built on the Apple model. Or, maybe, you'll make more money using that model, like the Windows computer model. But who makes money? Not the manufacturers, who exist in a dog-eat-dog world, and these days, can't make a differentiated product for the cost-cutting. HTC is in trouble, and they didn't make much profit from their Android phones. Windows makes money. And Google makes money.

But here comes Apple, doing everything "wrong." Okay, the last 14 years were a fluke, or an aberration because of the individual genius Jobs. Normal schmucks can't use the Apple model, can they?

But look not at the numbers of Android, but the profits. Not so great, huh? And Apple's growth has been in a lackluster decade for much of American business.

And what's so crazy about making a product you control from manufacturing to software, to the package the thing comes in? People will pay for it, because of the overall value from being in the hands of a designer, not a money man or an engineer.

 

[oldMac]

Why would we believe her now?

So, if this analyst has historically been wrong, why would we believe her now?

 

[superman23]

someone please pay me lots of money to make up numbers

 

[PlipPlop]

Developers hedging their bets with Android are setting themselves up for a lackluster 2012 of missed opportunities.

I dont see how seeing as there are over 600k new Android phones activated a day.

 

[Swift]

They release a MAXIMUM of one iPhone every year. You say 3 - but The size/color do not count as different phones. The iPhone 4s is the 4s regardless of storage capacity/color. Just because they are selling 3 different generations of iPhones from previous years, doesn't mean they produce more. Samsung, and every company does this.

Samsung releases almost a phone every 3 months. Big difference. Get it?

The 3GS has been the first "free" phone, and that puts it in a spot like the old iPod mini. The idea, as always, is to make a device that spans the entire market, from iPod shuffle to Nano to Classic to Touch (which is an iPhone without the need to pay for networks).

----------

So, if this analyst has historically been wrong, why would we believe her now?

Well, it's nice to read media where they're always "surprised." Apple making money? Who'da thunk it?

----------

 

[divinox]

I want voice-only FaceTime so that we can finally drop the wireless carriers. Sure you're going to need an open wi-fi connection, but the carriers prices are just insane.

And can they finally publish the FaceTime specifications already, as Steve said they would?

Ever heard of Skype? Does everything you want, and then some - and, you can actually call someone that doesn't live in Apple-land. Imagine that!

----------

I think they actually have a chance if the iPhone 4 moves into the "free on contract" slot next year, which I assume it will.

iPhone 4 felt to me almost like the breatout iPhone, and if it's offered free next year that could be huge.

...and what would that do to the 3GS? If both were free on similar contracts, why would one chose the older of the two?

 

[YMark]

This. The only thing I don't like about my Android is the battery life. We always have to use the wife's iPhone for Netflix parenting in the car.

There are many things I don't like about my Android phone, but the battery life is the biggest flaw.

 

[divinox]

iPhone sales per year (roughly rounded)

2008: 13.6 million
2009: 25.2 million
2010: 47.4 million
2011: 86-91 million (estimated)


iPhone sales have been nearly doubling for the past 4 years. 200 million may be a little high but not that crazy. Hey guys look, I'm an analyst!

Congrats man!

Anal cyst 101: Extrapolation is fun and cool! :- )

 

[aristotle]

At least the battery will last more than a couple of hours

Are you talking about android LTE phones? My 4S last a couple of days on a charge. Sometimes it lasts two and a half days.

 

[GreyStreet]

There are many things I don't like about my Android phone, but the battery life is the biggest flaw.

Be interested in other things you don't like. I honestly like my phone better in almost every other category than my wife's outside of battery life. Maybe it's because I customized mine to the point that things are much easier and faster for me. But, if someone else picked it up they'd likely have no clue how to open anything.

 

[divinox]

Ridiculous screen size (4.7)
Bluetooth 2.1 (two generations old)
720p video recording
Single Core Processor.
Minuscule software market

I think Apple is probably more sorry for you

History repeating; e.g., Pre-4S: who cares about dual-core. Post-4S: Single core? Pfff..

----------

Samsung cheats by realising a phone every 2-3 months. Well, not cheats but you're comparing a company that has multi-devices against one device from another vendor?

200 Million is achievable if they keep the ball rolling.

Iphone 4S 16 GB, 32GB, 64GB
Iphone 4 8GB
Iphone 3GS 8GB

How is that 1 model?

edit: forgot about LTE versions.

----------

They release a MAXIMUM of one iPhone every year. You say 3 - but The size/color do not count as different phones. The iPhone 4s is the 4s regardless of storage capacity/color. Just because they are selling 3 different generations of iPhones from previous years, doesn't mean they produce more. Samsung, and every company does this.

Samsung releases almost a phone every 3 months. Big difference. Get it?

Quick question:

If i take the exact same internals, and make two different cases. Is that less or more the same phone than taking the same externals and changing the internals?

 

[divinox]

Business school grads have been taught that a corporation can't be built on the Apple model. Or, maybe, you'll make more money using that model, like the Windows computer model. But who makes money? Not the manufacturers, who exist in a dog-eat-dog world, and these days, can't make a differentiated product for the cost-cutting. HTC is in trouble, and they didn't make much profit from their Android phones. Windows makes money. And Google makes money.

But here comes Apple, doing everything "wrong." Okay, the last 14 years were a fluke, or an aberration because of the individual genius Jobs. Normal schmucks can't use the Apple model, can they?

But look not at the numbers of Android, but the profits. Not so great, huh? And Apple's growth has been in a lackluster decade for much of American business.

And what's so crazy about making a product you control from manufacturing to software, to the package the thing comes in? People will pay for it, because of the overall value from being in the hands of a designer, not a money man or an engineer.

Reference to your first claim, please. Having read my fair share of Ciborra, I know Business schools teach a lot of crap (his pet peeve) - but i have yet to come across anything in my studies that would point in the direction of your bold claim. Heck, one of the classic business cases takes "Apples model" (vertical integration) to the extreme, well beyond Apple, and this case is generally seen in positive light (Ford).

p.s.

While i agree with your overall point: i.e. those who control the platform (e.g. Wintel) control the rents (e.g. MSFT, Intel), i think you're partly off base with your Google/Android example. For Google, it seems to be less about direct rents, and more about indirect effects (increased use, better data). Similarly, if Facebook were to make a phone (as rumored), i don't expect them to leverage the phone for direct rents, rather i would expect to see them use it in order to add stickiness to (and add value to) their social platform.

Also, to comment on "can they?" - i'll paraphrase Gates. Gates reportedly said something in the line of: "Jobs (eventually) proved his model worked (too) -- what i left out: for it to work, you need someone like Jobs". Wont go in to debate whether he is right or wrong, just felt it was worth adding.