This may be a stupid question but who the f is Mark Gurman and why does everyone speculate and look to his very miss predictions? He doesn't know, and if he did he would have signed an NDA. We may as well ask a nest of tables.
I would say it’s a newbie question, but, weirdly, you’re a member and joined 10 years ago… And I don’t want to assume anything about your intelligence or lack thereof, but it is indeed an outright bizarre question coming from someone who apparently frequents MR and – here I’m actually assuming – should probably already know how the rumour mill works on a technical level. Maybe you just hang out more in very specific sub-forums instead of here on the main, rumour-focused one?
Anyway, you did ask, so I’ll have to “rumoursplain” you, then: Mark Gurman has insider information, i.e. he has sources, and do you know who has those? That’s right, reporters and journalists. Which he very much is. More specifically, he’s the chief correspondent for Bloomberg on all matters Apple-related.
Nominally, he doesn’t “know” anything for sure, or not when it comes to rumours, because he can a) be purposely fed wrong information and b) be fed true information on products that are delayed, cancelled or changed at the last minute, and indeed he
has got some rumours wrong in the past. That doesn’t change the fact that he seems to be very judicious with his sources (some of which
are, indeed, under NDAs, and spill the beans to him at great personal risk and especially cost if and when Apple catches them) and that, statistically speaking and in hindsight, he’s been the most accurate reporter when it comes to unreleased Apple products for at least a decade now (incidentally the exact amount of time you’ve been here).
There are, obviously, others, Ming-chi Kuo being an also very prominent and reliable one. That one in particular isn’t a reporter in the traditional sense, but he works as an analyst for International Securities, so he’s also got a vested interest in going out after accurate sources. And there is, of course… MacRumors! This is a multi-million-dollar business, after all, and there will always be people in the design and production chain willing to become sources, as well as reporters and other professionals eager to bridge that gap and give the info they’re fed some degree of credibility and especially anonymity.
It’s pretty obvious, then, why the rumour mill works this way: if we exclude the infamous ThinkSecret debacle (in a nutshell, TS was a prominent competitor of both MR and the also still active AppleInsider, and got basically bankrupt and shut down by Apple after they bought a lost iPhone 4 prototype and leaked it), Apple usually only goes after the leakers and moles (what I’d call serial leakers) and not the journalists themselves, as the latter usually have legal protection in the countries they operate from, which allows them to patently refuse to reveal their sources.
And here’s where it gets really ugly: the very existence of this website, or at least its permanence in where it’s currently headquartered in, hinges on the results of the next US presidential elections; without a free press, and Apple having free rein to go after those who give aid and comfort to the leakers, you can probably kiss all your rumour sites and even rumour-related reports on regular outlets goodbye. Apple executives paint themselves as these cute, principled and benign people, but the fact that they operate in countries dominated by horrendously undemocratic regimes and were willing to make overtures to the previous administration, combined with said aggressive lawsuit that basically bankrupted the kid who owned it and got his website shut down, is proof positive that they don’t give a damn about the First Amendment and will do whatever they feel is best for their shareholders’ interests. 🤷♂️