Same people that claim Apple is doomed whenever iPhone sales are slightly down? What do they want?
Exactly.
You also gotta remember that a quarter is only 90 days.
But people buy iPhones 365 days a year.
So if one quarter iPhone sales are up... and the next quarter iPhone sales are down... that's two different sets of people who bought iPhones during those times. So it's really difficult to make any kind of judgement.
A
person could buy a new iPhone once every 8 quarters. Or 12 quarters. Or maybe 16 quarters.
But
people buy iPhones every quarter.
We know people are keeping phones longer these days... so that screws up what we used to think was a normal replacement cycle of every ~2 years.
It always makes me chuckle when they say "
sales were lower than expected..."
What are they basing their expectations on? I'm sure Apple "expected" me to buy a new iPhone eight quarters ago. But no... I'm still using my iPhone 6S Plus!
I haven't been a part of these charts since 2015. But Apple is still getting some money from me from various subscription services, app purchases, etc.
I'm sure Apple would love for me to buy a new iPhone... but I don't
have to.
And that's what makes an analysts' job difficult. These are non-essential, totally-optional items... with a widely varying purchasing schedule. If you just bought an iPhone 11 Pro Max... you probably won't be buying another iPhone for a long time. Certainly not next quarter.
We love our iPhones... but we don't have to buy them often.
If someone said the milk industry is slowing... it's because people aren't drinking milk. You have to
keep buying milk in order to drink milk. It's literally a consumable with a very short shelf life.
But you can buy a phone once and keep it for many many years.
We always talk about quarterly sales... but a person only contributes to a single quarter. The next quarter it's all different people.
I don't know if anything I said makes sense... it was just an idea that's been rolling around in my head for a while.
