Cool stats bro. Buy the stock then if you believe what you write. (IE, put your money where your mouth is). I'm comfortable being on the sideline.
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Apple Reports Q3 2015 Earnings of $10.7B on $49.6B Revenue: 47.5M iPhones, 10.9M iPads, 4.8M Macs
- Thread starter MacRumors
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
It's funny, last quarter all the investors could nitpick about was the decline in iPad sales. This time around no one seems to care about that as they're busy making up Apple Watch unit sales. I bet by next quarter they will be back at obsessing about iPad numbers.
The sad part is that this will only lead Apple to stuff even more products in the Other category, starting with iPad. By next year we will have two categories: Hardware and Software/Services (aka Others).
The sad part is that this will only lead Apple to stuff even more products in the Other category, starting with iPad. By next year we will have two categories: Hardware and Software/Services (aka Others).
Do yourself a favor and do not invest in the stock market. Those bunch of guys guessing numbers is what sets expectations and drives performance of the stock, whether you or any Apple fan boy like it or not. If fanboy pride is what matters to you, then your line about 47 million vs. 35 million is spot on. If money is "what actually matters" (which it is to many who pay attention to a company's earnings), then 47 million vs. 35 million means absolutely nothing and does not in fact matter one bit.
To add to this, the reason it matters is those expectations were already priced in. While selling 10 million more sounds great ( and is great ) the market expected that. Apple stock is priced where it is due to potential and expectations, not sales. If sales flatline the stock will sink until sales match the stock price.
I wish more people would understand this. This is really Jobs fault. He would consistently sandbag expectations and blow out the numbers every quarter. Cook is trying to be more realistic and the analysts haven't all caught on yet.
The problem is these analysts seem to be missing the forest for the trees. They were dead wrong about Apple in 2012, and had retail investors needlessly panicking. This time around they seem to place an inordinate emphasis on Watch sales. Even a "wildly successful" launch of the Watch wouldn't have moved the needle much. The first quarter of Apple Watch sales were never going to make or break the product. Tim Cook confirmed what I have been saying for months now, which is that they see the holiday quarter as being pivotal. If "Other" is up only modestly on the call in 6 months, then we can say that Apple Watch needs a "do-over" or is relegated to a hobby. But neither today's results or whatever happens in 3 months will tell us all that much.
Doesn't Cook still aim low with his expectations? I recall reading that Apple is consistently conservative with their estimates and so this happens almost every single earnings call.
It looks like Apple's estimates were spot on. Analysts were way off.
Last edited:
I think people expect apple to behave like the AAPL of 5+ years ago where it's PE was in the hundreds and had huge swings and blowout earnings.
What do you expect a Apple to trade at with 50B in revenue and P/E of under 20?...purely based on technicals?
What I find a bit curious is just within the last couple days analysts started raising their iPhone estimates which I turn made the stock go higher. Then when Apple doesn't meet these higher estimates the stock gives back most of its gains from last week. My question is why the sudden increase in iPhone estimates? What data were they seeing that caused them to up their estimates? Clearly it was not good data.
Only if you day trade or invest in the short term. If you invest for the long term, ala Buffett et.al., then the gyrations of daily stock prices, due to analysts guesses and manipulations, averages out to not affect the resulting performance of any individual stock very much at all over the long run. Analysts can help cause entire market bubbles and crashes though, but it's hard to completely avoid that no matter where you put your money. And any highly diversified strategy almost has to include the stock market.
It's actually very common as analysts are also competing with themselves to be the most accurate. As each one raises estimates, others follow along so as not to be left behind.
Herd effect.
Pure money grab by the big boys, pump it up, get neophytes to dump on the " miss", buy low and pump it again.
This is sad but so true. If investors expect Apple to do record numbers, they buy stocks based on that assumption. And they have known for three months about Apple's Q3 projections (it was in the Q2 report) so the stock price has risen based on those numbers. The thing with trading is that if you know tomorrow's news today, then the stock value today will be based on tomorrow's news. When tomorrow's news arrives without any surprises this will send those with higher expectations to abandon their stocks. Remember, everyone buying stocks expects them to rise or they wouldn't invest in them. When they don't see any potential growth in said stocks they go elsewhere. Hence the panic drops. Not all investors buy [AAPL] stocks for the long run.
It has everything to do with what information and expectations you have today and nothing to do with actual growth.
What makes you think it was due to any actual data? Not emotion, senseless noise in networks of human brains, and perhaps manipulation of any gossip by traders?
It does make one wonder. And curious too that none of the financial news networks talked about the late increase in estimates (including Q4).