That's the thing we don't know and you can't prove otherwise.
No, 20% isn’t a margin of error.
Only if one thing is done. Otherwise battery life is not predictable at all.
I also disagree here. In my experience, it is very predictable. You have to have a little more data, but it’s very predictable.
You’ve repeatedly stated that you don’t monitor battery life. Give it a shot! You’ll be surprised when you start predicting SOT based on your usage patterns.
Like I stated: numbers aren’t perfect. There is always some variation, but it doesn’t matter: it’s very possible to make good estimates.
I’ll give a 6s on iOS 9 rundown with amazing battery health:
Light use on Wi-Fi? 8-8.5 hours, low brightness. This includes texting, Safari, some writing on a low-powered writing app, some reading.
Increase brightness a little? It’ll drop to around 7.5. Increase brightness with some social media? Maybe 7. Heavy social media use? It’ll probably strain to get 6, some apps are very heavy.
Moderate use? (Includes part of outdoors LTE, very occasional camera - maybe a few pictures, and higher brightness, maybe mixed with some Wi-Fi use): it’ll get around 6. The heavier things you include, the worse it’ll be. More social media? It’ll be below that number, for example.
Moderate to heavy? It’ll be around 5.
Heavy use? Far harder to predict. Why? Because heavy apps vary tremendously in power requirements. Gaming? Maybe 3 hours. Heavy maps? Maybe 3, too. But this is far harder to predict, like I said.
Go ahead, take a quick glance at the 6s thread which includes hundreds of screenshots. With a little description from the user, I can predict the battery life before I see the number. Like I said: predictable, once you know a little about the device.
I’m sorry but I have to say this: you said you haven’t ever tracked it, so of course you wouldn’t know.
Is it perfectly precise? Of course not. I never claimed my numbers were. But it’s far more predictable than you give it credit for.
Numbers deviate too much? (for the worse, so lower): okay, no worries. Two things: a possible hardware issue, but before that... try some settings. Maybe a combo within your specific configuration is killing your battery. Assuming it’s that, once you solve it? It’ll be in the realm of what I said. Always.
Battery life is far more predictable than many people think. Individual settings don’t have a dramatic impact. You have to tweak a bunch of very identifiable settings to make a significant difference.
Why did I complain so much about my iPad? I tracked its battery life for 3.5 years on iOS 9. I knew how much that thing would last to the damn minute. iOS 12 came... and now it’s the exact same patterns... except 3 hours below what they should be.
Give it a shot. You’ll find some outliers, of course. But those numbers are repeated throughout the entire thread, over and over and over again.
Funnily enough: all 4.7-inch iPhones have a similar battery life. I played a game with some users: describe your usage pattern and settings and I can predict (again, with some margin of error), your battery life. I was always within the realm of reality.
Again, this is not me being some sort of wizard: it’s a repeated pattern throughout every single iOS device. Give it a shot if you like! Your thoughts would be very interesting.
I would say the average iphone owner while doing similar things doesn't do the same thing the same way. For example, watching a youtube video in full sun on lte is quite different on battery life than watching a youtube video in a dark room next to a wifi router.
Sure, and you can account for that, very easily. In fact, now that you being that up: your point is correct. It is far more difficult to predict that, because people tend to post screenshots of less varying usage patterns: if you see the threads, many go “today I was out all day, full LTE”, or “today I had access to Wi-Fi, so, vast majority was Wi-Fi”.
Do you want to know what the most interesting part about this is? That you can make that a pattern! “Okay. Let’s see, today I watched some YouTube with Wi-Fi on a dark room, maybe for about an hour. Then, I went outside, disabled Wi-Fi, and used YouTube on full brightness because of the sunlight for this amount of time”. I am absolutely sure that if you maintain the iOS version and settings, that number is extremely replicable. Will it be different than one on full Wi-Fi on a dark screen and one of full brightness on full LTE throughout? Yes! But there will be a pattern that can easily be predicted (to a certain degree and with a certain margin of error).
Full Wi-Fi 8 hours, Full LTE 5 hours? Great. Something in the middle will be between 5 and 8. Where? Well, the more Wi-Fi, the closer it is. Predictable. A pattern. A perfect pattern? No! It can vary. But you can be sure that such a prediction (with repeatedly collected data), won’t be as poor as you imply it to be.
My overall take is that your numbers are fuzzy at best. In lieu of citations, they can't be proved and are guesstimates and imo, are some aggregated numbers based on information cobbled together from the internet.
Give it a shot. It would be great. I am confident enough to say “I know you’ll be surprised” instead of “I think you’ll be surprised”.
The 6s although sporting a great processor was grossly inefficient compared to the iphone 7 (imo) and hence battery life on the iphone 7 is better. (even though i cited the wrong ios versions - and it was impossible for the iphone 7 to run ios 8)
All of the information I’ve seen suggests that if the 7 is better, then it is negligible (on original iOS versions. It is likely that some versions affected the 6s more than the 7, for obvious reasons which I have alluded to a million times before).
Degradation is something uniquely individual and not applicable to all iphone owners across the board. More applicable to 32 bit devices and phones below the iphone x. Even Apples specs says the iphone 7 lasted more than the 6s. 2 hours is not "the same" as the 6s. So in your testing the 6s and 7 are the same but Apple claims differently. Hence my anecdotal claim that ios 16 has not had an impact on the battery life of my xs max with a new battery. As for my ipad 7th gen, ipados 16 has not had an impact either.
And here is how Apple conducts it's battery tests:
https://www.apple.com/iphone/battery.html
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Apple’s claims are irrelevant. They claim “up to 10 hours” on every. single. iPad ever released, and it is common knowledge among long-term iPad users that battery life isn’t the same for every iPad ever released.