Why do you always act like I've said something I haven't? I swear, Dean, you act more and more belligerent the more time you spend on here.
Through my work, I am personally aware of at least one non-public market research study measuring two of the things you mentioned. I am not conducting or directly involved with that study myself.
I'm not making ANY claims myself on the size of the affected class or the harms. I like facts first, deductive logic second, and inductive inferences third. Guesses are OK beyond that, properly qualified as such, for purposes of discussion.
What I AM saying is that "Only Apple knows" isn't correct. Good MR work can get you reasonable estimates of things--certainly within orders of magnitude, which is what's relevant here. And I do know, for a fact, that there is MR work being done on that issue right now.
You're correct that the person to whom you replied is merely guessing. Given units sold and the screenshots we have seen of the upcoming beta, I would guess his "millions" isn't wrong, just based on how many units Apple sells and the rapid adoption of iOS upgrades, both of which are numbers we DO know from both Apple and MR work. (Actually that's more of a hybrid between induction and a guess. But hey, you said I like to be pedantic, so why stop now?)