I'm guessing they will announce plans for a special dividend sometime in 2012 (maybe $15-25/share). Right now, qualifying dividends are taxed at 15% rather than at normal income rates (i.e. the same as long term capital gains). That special tax treatment is set to expire at the end of the year. It is also possible they will announce a small regular dividend (perhaps $1/share) that would not be very costly, but would open up their stock to investment by pension plans and mutual funds whose charters require them to invest in dividend-paying stocks. A stock buyback is also possible, but a bit silly when the stock is trading at record highs.
I also would not be surprised if they announce plans to invest a portion of their stockpile in an "incubator" for research and development (i.e. making private equity-type investments in startups). That would be productive use of the money, and potentially give Apple some leverage in the coming years in terms of intellectual property. Apple has a big enough stockpile of cash and investments that today, it really looks like an investment manager and technology company rolled into one. I'm not saying they will, but it would not surprise me.
Good thoughts, quite possible scenarios -- though I'd expect a regular dividend on the order of 1-2% if they go that route. A $1.00 dividend wouldn't even be worth processing the paperwork. It comes to something like 0.15%, pretty much a joke dividend, and especially for a company that takes in that kind of free cash every five days.
Buybacks, I just don't like. They don't do much for stockholders except in the abstract.