Apple Vision Pro Unlikely to Hit 500,000 Sales This Year, Says IDC

[turbineseaplane]

I know Apple doesn't want to pigeon hole the device too far into entertainment but they have to start somewhere.

Maybe Apple should shelve their ego and actually embrace the one thing that DOES move some VR units...

Gaming with controllers/peripherals

I swear they are such a nauseatingly "up their own rear end" company these days

It's actually kind of pleasurable to watch them getting force fed so much humble pie

 

[TigerNike23]

I’ll be blunt: FLOP

Now, if they want to continue the category a la Series 1/2 Apple Watch, with refinements… they can try it and it might work.

 

[jz0309]

“They” are Apple. Context clues. The source is various articles posted here and elsewhere.

Ok, keep on making up numbers as you wish and keep us updated, I’m done here

 

[citysnaps]

It's an introductory product in a relatively new product space. Not surprising about the 400K units. Many of those are developers for creating content. Or companies wanting to use it in their operations - Home Depot for kitchen designs as just one example.

 

[Surf Monkey]

I'm afraid that to start the "killer app" would need to be a really great game. I know Apple doesn't want to pigeon hole the device too far into entertainment but they have to start somewhere.

The tech inside the Vision Pro would truly make for a mind blowing game in VR that could set a new standard and create buzz. The problem is, Apple needs to front the entire cost. Perhaps they are doing that and we don't know it--but just a few experiences like that would motivate me.

Agree. And it begs the question: why doesn’t Apple know what it’s for? In the case of every successful Apple product they started by demonstrating why we needed a thing we didn’t know we needed. In the case of the Vision internal software development for the platform appears to be an afterthought. Where’s the “look at this thing’s vast potential” app?

 

[Surf Monkey]

You mean the company that is currently the most valuable company in the world?*

*which does not matter to me at all. But the constant "Apple is doooooomed" riffs here on MR make me giggle.

Literally no one here said that they think Apple is doomed.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Ok, keep on making up numbers as you wish and keep us updated, I’m done here

Accusing me of making up numbers is inappropriate.

 

[PlainviewX]

Prohibiting porn doomed it.

 

[nathansz]

$999, more comfortable, M4 or M5 chip with Apple Intelligence and similar amounts of content and games to Quest and it will succeed. Maybe.

The silicon or presence of ai doesn’t change the fact that the device has no discernible purpose

 

[Sundaypapers123]

$3500 for what is essentially an ultra-fancy iPad. Of course it's not going to sell. It's an entertainment machine - not a serious productivity device. They won't sell these in serious numbers until it gets to the $500 mark. And even then, we know the market for VR/AR is tepid at best - so not hard to see it flopping. (That said, if I knew someone who owned one, I'd jump at the chance to give it a go!)

 

[mlenger]

it wasn't released in 3D in theaters. the first one was

Correct. The first one was converted to 3D in post production, as they had the time to do it due to Covid. So there is still hope for a 3D version of the 2nd one, as neither where shot in 3D.

 

[robgreene]

The iPod was instantly desirable to anyone who had exposure to it
Absolutely zero useful to glean there in a comparison with the AVP

The only reason iPods didn't take off even quicker is that music downloading and purchasing was still becoming a "thing" and also the initial ones (& iTunes) were Mac only (which was just a twinkle in mainstream eyes at that particular point in history)

The AVP is standalone, available easily ... and basically nobody wants it

The sales numbers suggest the iPod was not "instantly desirable to anyone who had exposure to it."

Why? In part because, as you stated: "music downloading and purchasing was still becoming a 'thing'". It was only desirable to those who had embraced downloading and purchasing music.

To say that "basically nobody wants it" overlooks that they are on track to match or eclipse iPod sales numbers in year 1. The data suggests that an equal or greater number of people want in year one.

The more likely scenario here is that you, and others in these forums, "basically don't want it," and you are projecting your feelings about the product on to the market at large, despite numbers to the contrary.

It's ok. You're allowed to not like it. Not every product is for you.

Just don't project that feeling on to hundreds of thousands of people who actively disagree with you with your wallets.

 

[ToastErickson]

If this was was TRUE Augmented reality, with images projected onto your retina, then I would be all for it.... but since this is basically upgraded tech from the first Oculus Rift/HTC Vive... at an astronomical cost, im surprised they were able to sell as many units as they did.

So much of the tech in it is necessary, and immediately breaks the future proofing of the device. The Fake Eyes are 100% not needed, and having a display that just is there to do that breaks the refined minimalism apple is known for.

For the first version of the Vision: they should have had it be a wirelessly tethered device that would use the processing power of your phone, iPad or Mac.

Having a non upgradeable device at over $3000 with its limited toolset that will undoubtedly have an upgraded version within 2 years is ridiculous. $1200 for a tethered device who majority of upgrades will be from a more substantial device that people are more comfortable with upgrading would make it feel like a safer investment.

 

[ToastErickson]

The sales numbers suggest the iPod was not "instantly desirable to anyone who had exposure to it."

Why? In part because, as you stated: "music downloading and purchasing was still becoming a 'thing'". It was only desirable to those who had embraced downloading and purchasing music.

To say that "basically nobody wants it" overlooks that they are on track to match or eclipse iPod sales numbers in year 1. The data suggests that an equal or greater number of people want in year one.

The more likely scenario here is that you, and others in these forums, "basically don't want it," and you are projecting your feelings about the product on to the market at large, despite numbers to the contrary.

It's ok. You're allowed to not like it. Not every product is for you.

Just don't project that feeling on to hundreds of thousands of people who actively disagree with you with your wallets.

Eh... comparing it to iPod sales is not really fair. When the iPod came out, MP3 players were not a common thing, more people were comfortable with CD players. A lot of people actually were trying out MiniDisc players... and even then the iPod was only slightly more expensive than the Creative MP3 devices.

It was the marketplace that sold it... but Music was also a thing that almost everyone enjoys in one way or another... and having your library contained in a pocket sized device was an alluring thing that soon drew everyones attention.

the Vision will not have much content that draws people like Music does... while I do love VR content, It is not something that I would bring with me... and till it becomes images projected onto the retina, AR is not going to be a think most people will want.

Also when the iPod came out the world population was 6billion people. It's now over 8billion, so 100,000 then would be 133,000 now. And more people had more disposable income back then.

 

[hans1972]

The problem is size, weight, looks, and prize.

I wouldn't buy it and have to use it regularly even for $0.


If someone paid me $50/h to use it, I might use it a few hours per week to watch some movies or something.

 

[spaxxedout]

Oh it's totally dependent on use case but I live alone so it's ideal for me. And there area a lot of couples out there who don't watch the same things(like my parents) or families where ya might want to get away from kids programming or watch a big loud movie after the kids go to bed, or apartments where people can't blast surround sound. I'm sure there are a lot of situations where this thing is ideal for entertainment. Isolating yes, but I love that about it, I sleep great after using it and I watch movies and tv without distraction

Solid point. The only way you’re going to match the size and fidelity of Vision Pro is a short throw projector, and those are about the same price.

 

[Rychiar]

Solid point. The only way you’re going to match the size and fidelity of Vision Pro is a short throw projector, and those are about the same price.

I went to a movie theater this past weekend for the first time since buying it and felt like I needed glasses the screen was so blurry by comparison to the Vision Pro

 

[turbineseaplane]

The sales numbers suggest the iPod was not "instantly desirable to anyone who had exposure to it."

Why? In part because, as you stated: "music downloading and purchasing was still becoming a 'thing'". It was only desirable to those who had embraced downloading and purchasing music.

To simplify this for you:
What I meant is..."anyone who used it wanted it"

What platform it took to get it initially, or where music was sourced from is a different issue that isn't relevant.
The key takeaway is everyone used it was instantly in love with what it was and what it could do.

That is absolutely the opposite of the AVP situation
With AVP we have Apple podcasters and developers who don't even want it

 

[211]

The biggest problem is clearly the price. Tech-wise, it’s amazing. I would get one, but it’s far too expensive. Macs are too expensive for what they are, but they’re still significantly cheaper and would be more frequently used than Apple Vision Pros

 

[daniesy]

Called it! But, but, but, VP isn't a commercial flop. 🤣

Love your avatar )

 

[turbineseaplane]

The sales numbers suggest the iPod was not "instantly desirable to anyone who had exposure to it."

Why? In part because, as you stated: "music downloading and purchasing was still becoming a 'thing'". It was only desirable to those who had embraced downloading and purchasing music.

To say that "basically nobody wants it" overlooks that they are on track to match or eclipse iPod sales numbers in year 1. The data suggests that an equal or greater number of people want in year one.

I would encourage you to read your own post more critically as you're making the opposite case you think you are.

The fact the iPod was so constrained in terms of platform and music access requirements yet sold as well as it did ... is a true testament to what an amazing concept and product it was and how immediately desirable it was.

That's the total opposite of the AVP situation, which is widely available to anyone and fully standalone and is struggling to match numbers of a, to your point, hyper constrained and very niche initial iPod, sold by a tiny company (relative to now)

That's not a "good thing" for AVP

 

[blocsapp]

Excited for mine to arrive here in the UK tomorrow. As well as developing software for it, I’ve always wanted my own movie theatre, so it’s worth every penny.

 

[iMac The Knife]

Love your avatar )

Thanks! vegetassj4 was kind enouhg to make it for me earlier today upon my request.

 

[Surf Monkey]

The sales numbers suggest the iPod was not "instantly desirable to anyone who had exposure to it."

Why? In part because, as you stated: "music downloading and purchasing was still becoming a 'thing'". It was only desirable to those who had embraced downloading and purchasing music.

To say that "basically nobody wants it" overlooks that they are on track to match or eclipse iPod sales numbers in year 1. The data suggests that an equal or greater number of people want in year one.

The more likely scenario here is that you, and others in these forums, "basically don't want it," and you are projecting your feelings about the product on to the market at large, despite numbers to the contrary.

It's ok. You're allowed to not like it. Not every product is for you.

Just don't project that feeling on to hundreds of thousands of people who actively disagree with you with your wallets.

Did you own a gen 1 iPod? I did. It was the focus of a TON of attention and was absolutely desired by everyone I showed it to. And I’m not the only one with this experience.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Ahh yes ... folks are just "in love" with AVP