Apple Watch 2 Expected to Focus on Internal Upgrades Rather Than External Changes, Launch in Late 2016

[Ted13]

Siri isn't the fastest on the Watch, I agree. But it is capable of handling some backlog. Most of the times, I raise my wrist, I say "Hey Siri, set a timer for 15 minutes", I lower my arm, and I check back 10 seconds later if it succeeded. 99% of the times it did.

But I fully agree the watch needs more CPU power and way faster response. And they should fix the 1% of the times when it didn't work. And its Siri should be capable of doing all the things the phone Siri can do.

I totally agree, but the CPU issue is really a battery issue: in other words Apple's ARM CPUs are very fast and advanced as is, but the reason the one on the Apple Watch is so slow, they needed to lower the CPU clock speed to make sure the battery lasted all day long.

If Apple succeeds in having a battery breakthrough in the next decade, they will have huge success with most of their products from Apple Watch to the rumored Apple Car.

So far as the predictions for Apple Watch sales for 2016: they are of the same level as analysts predictions that Windows Phones would be well ahead of iPhones by 2015 - pure fantasy.

 

[Mac 128]

Why?

Apple has sold $5 Billion+ worth of watches and bands since launch. With more than twice as many units sold as the 1st generation iPhone.

And now, analysts are predicting in its second year, instead of growing, it will sell about the same or less than the original iPhone. Not to mention they've sold less than 4% of the potential market for the watch, which is anyone with an iPhone. While those numbers are fantastic for any stand alone business, they're terrible for Apple, especially given the potential market of over 500 million iPhone users, and no business wants to sell half as many units during their second year of sales.

 

[dogslobber]

I really think the problem with the Apple watch is it just wasnt good enough. Not fast enough, not receptive enough, not small enough.

It feels like if Apple tried to deliver the iPhone in 2006. They could have, but it would have been a far lesser product.

A good observation. Would Steve have allowed the iWatch to be released as-is on his watch? The question is whether he'd have said 'No.' 'No' is a powerful word but I wonder if the Apple executives got weak and caved to so-called market demands. A panic release in essence.

 

[BlueMoon63]

Niche market not the next big thing Tim.

Not sure I disagree with you because a watch may always be a niche market - or at least for years to come, but your use of the word Niche made me recall...

Original iPhone Quotes from 2007:

Ed Zander (CEO of Motorola) - "How do they deal with us?"
Steve Balmer (CEO Microsoft) - "There is no chance that the iPhone is going is going to get any significant market share."
Anssi Vanjoki (Nokia's Chief Analyst) - "Apple has attracted much attention at first, but they have still remained a niche manufacturer. That will be in mobile phones as well."

We really need to wait a few more years, but no one really needs an Apple Watch in my opinion, but people smarter than I have said much worse and were way wrong.
[doublepost=1460386687][/doublepost]

The Garmin's Fenix 3 is a superior product. Apple needs to take notes on that design and functionality.

It's definitely superior for what it does, but it is way too big to be a comparable product and what it is good at isn't a real comparison product. Can't really compare battery for something that is twice as big and is really a device most would wear for fitness only. Still, it is a great product, by my gawd that this is enormous and wouldn't fit under any business man's button down shirt with the sleeves down.

 

[dogslobber]

Why?

Apple has sold $5 Billion+ worth of watches and bands since launch. With more than twice as many units sold as the 1st generation iPhone.

But they need to be able to demonstrate sustainable growth in the long term. If the iWatch market collapses after 1 year then the product is a flop. Sustained growth is what makes the stock price increase, not another product flop.

 

[ike1707]

This. This is the news I've been watching for.

 

[spazzcat]

Not sure I disagree with you because a watch may always be a niche market - or at least for years to come, but your use of the word Niche made me recall...

Original iPhone Quotes from 2007:

Ed Zander (CEO of Motorola) - "How do they deal with us?"
Steve Balmer (CEO Microsoft) - "There is no chance that the iPhone is going is going to get any significant market share."
Anssi Vanjoki (Nokia's Chief Analyst) - "Apple has attracted much attention at first, but they have still remained a niche manufacturer. That will be in mobile phones as well."

We really need to wait a few more years, but no one really needs an Apple Watch in my opinion, but people smarter than I have said much worse and were way wrong.

Wearables is the next big thing, it's just not going to be as huge as other markets. Look at all the products out there now and all the projects in progress on sites like kickstater. Most of these are fitness focus and the next Apple Watch needs to be much more focus on fitness.

 

[Floodzie]

I will upgrade instantly as long as they do one thing: keep compatibility

This is Apple, and based on their history with chargers and connectors, I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

[Precision Gem]

All possible with an iPhone...that you already have with you.
That's a large part of why I believe the Apple Watch is a failure. Maybe not in a financial sense, but as a product. It truly serves no greater purpose other than a bit of convenience. Apple has prided itself on green lighting products that solve a problem or make a difference. The Apple Watch is an unnecessary answer looking for a problem.

When I am at work, sitting at the desk, I don't like the phone in my pocket, so I lay it on the desk. Often I will get up and move about the office to talk to others, and not pick up the phone. Many many many times I have gotten calls or other notifictions when the phone isn't in my pocket, but the watch is on my wrist. The same happens at home all the time. I will be upstairs, and my phone downstairs, a call come in and I take it on the watch.

When walking on the streets or in a mall, I would often not hear my phone ringing in my pocket, with the watch I get those calls and notifications. It is a great extension to the phone, and something that now after 1 year of wearing every day, I would not do with out.

 

[BlueMoon63]

Apple Watch = epic fail.

I work with a lot of lawyers who use tech as status symbols. I've seen 3 apple watches. And more Galaxy S7's than iPhones these days.

Back in iPhone 4/4s era, every single person had an iPhone and if anyone did show up without one, he was mocked until he got with the program. Now among the same group iPhones are a pretty rare sight.

Granted these are not tech people and not the brightest bunch, but they do buy base on image.

I probably see 10 iphones for every 1 Galaxy every single day that I go out. 99/100 TV shows and movies have iPhones and Apple Laptops. I say this knowing how much I like the new look of the Galaxy S7 and it will sell more worldwide than the iPhone 6/6s.

"Google it" is an everyday term. iPhone is an everyday term. Galaxy S7 isn't... Samsung is banned from our company of 250,000 + employees because it is a known virus/malware risk.

 

[npmacuser5]

Because people don't buy new smart watches every year. Because those that wanted one, most have purchased them. There is still a very viable market - but I don't think we're going to see "iPhone" numbers on the watch any time soon. Very respectable numbers within its category - but not as strong of a pillar.

Agree...The whole consumer technology market is now saturated in both the number of devices and expense. Too many Cool Devices. Think about it, the iPhone was really the One cool thing, just a few years ago, now we have lots of cool things. To purchase all the cool things one needs deep pockets and a good deal of time managing all the cool things. In my own situation, we had one MacBook Pro, one iPhone, a couple of iPods and a router, just a few years ago. Now we have two iPhones, MacBook, MacMini, two iPads, two Apple Watches, Apple TV, FireTV, second router, iPods, Echo's, and a new oven that takes a PHD in computer science to bake with. One more example home automation, very slow go from a sales numbers perspective, Nest Thermostat an example. I actually enjoy messing with technology but it can become tiring and no argument expensive. The end result, consumers are now being forced to make decisions in both time and costs. A cool new Apple Watch however attractive, now becomes a like to have as opposed to gotta have purchase where the iPhone still commands a more gotta have position.

 

[doelcm82]

And now, analysts are predicting in its second year, instead of growing, it will sell about the same or less than the original iPhone. Not to mention they've sold less than 4% of the potential market for the watch, which is anyone with an iPhone. While those numbers are fantastic for any stand alone business, they're terrible for Apple, especially given the potential market of over 500 million iPhone users, and no business wants to sell half as many units during their second year of sales.

Come on! Apple's fiscal year ends in September. If they launch the Apple Watch 2 in September, the bulk of the sales will happen in FY2017, even if the Apple Watch 2 is a breakout product like the iPad 2 or the iPhone 3G.

Most big movies drop 50% in the second week, and there are always trolls who lurk on IMDb message boards gloating about how that means the movie is a financial failure.

Look at how the iPhone sales dropped in the first-half of 2008. Anyone can see that (and they'd be wrong if they think it proves that iPhone was not successful).

Apple knows what to expect with first generation Apple Watch sales, especially with a potential Apple Watch 2 coming late in the year. The question is whether they can generate excitement over the second generation model, and the answer is not going to be known until next year.

 

[Santabean2000]

This isn't surprising. The watch still seems like a product that was made because analysts said they should make it and other companies were trying it rather than because Apple had real ideas or a market for it.

Definitely 'UnderCooked'.

 

[nt5672]

...and then die.

Really, you don't get it do you. We played with mercury when I was a kid, we rolled it around on the floor, stepped on it to see it shoot in all directions then come back together, etc. And none of us kids are dead. Granted we were smart enough to not eat it and that is a stretch for todays youth. It was included in our chemistry kits. You say, whats the point? The point is that most warnings about chemicals and products today are just scare tactics to get you under control of the politicians.

Sure there were some really bad things that needed regulated, but the other 70 to 80% (and mostly the focus today) are nothing more than scare tactics. Remember DDT the first win for the environmental movement. Well guess what? The science published in every newspaper and shown to Congress was completely fabricated for political gain.

Today that exact same DDT is approved for use in exactly the same way in some 60% of the world outside of the U.S. Oh and banning it resulted in, depending on who you choose to believe, the deaths of 5 to 25 million children and elderly. No one estimates less than 5 million. You won't find that in the news because its not politically correct and its not what the politicians want you to know, but a little research will give enough evidence for anyone with an open mind.

The scared always follow orders. Remember WMDs? Politics is all about getting you to follow orders and it applies to both political parties or any of the political power hungry elite.

 

[MaulRx]

Really, you don't get it do you. We played with mercury when I was a kid, we rolled it around on the floor, stepped on it to see it shoot in all directions then come back together, etc. And none of us kids are dead. Granted we were smart enough to not eat it and that is a stretch for todays youth. It was included in our chemistry kits. You say, whats the point? The point is that most warnings about chemicals and products today are just scare tactics to get you under control of the politicians.

Sure there were some really bad things that needed regulated, but the other 70 to 80% (and mostly the focus today) are nothing more than scare tactics. Remember DDT the first win for the environmental movement. Well guess what? The science published in every newspaper and shown to Congress was completely fabricated for political gain.

Today that exact same DDT is approved for use in exactly the same way in some 60% of the world outside of the U.S. Oh and banning it resulted in, depending on who you choose to believe, the deaths of 5 to 25 million children and elderly. No one estimates less than 5 million. You won't find that in the news because its not politically correct and its not what the politicians want you to know, but a little research will give enough evidence for anyone with an open mind.

The scared always follow orders. Remember WMDs? Politics is all about getting you to follow orders and it applies to both political parties or any of the political power hungry elite.

...it was a joke. We get it you went to college. Money obviously well spent.

 

[maflynn]

Kind of a microcosm of the iPad. I think many of the issues the iPad faces with declining sales, can also be attributed with the apple watch to some extent. I think the apple watch 2 will be a hard sell for current apple watch owners, so that means Apple will need to try to convince those who held off already that the AW2 is a worthy product

 

[0007776]

Apple was way too quick on this one.

Fortunately, wearables are absolutely the future. The tech just isn't mature enough yet.

Maybe getting in so early will give them an advantage. Either way I still feel people will look back and say it could have been done better...and later.

Assuming you are correct that wearables are the future (something that I would question) I think the watch will end up with a fate like the Newton. Discontinued, but eventually looked back on as ahead of it's time and Apple will jump back in when they can figure out how to offer something that stands out from the other wearables on the market like they did with the iPhone.

 

[BlueMoon63]

Because people don't buy new smart watches every year. Because those that wanted one, most have purchased them. There is still a very viable market - but I don't think we're going to see "iPhone" numbers on the watch any time soon. Very respectable numbers within its category - but not as strong of a pillar.

Agreed! Almost seems safe to safe that we will never see "iPhone Numbers" with the watch unless the smartphone market becomes so saturated and technology never moves forward. No one really needs an Apple Watch if they have a smartphone. Many people will never wear a watch no matter what.

 

[doelcm82]

But they need to be able to demonstrate sustainable growth in the long term. If the iWatch market collapses after 1 year then the product is a flop. Sustained growth is what makes the stock price increase, not another product flop.

Nope. It's only a flop if the Apple Watch 2 flops. We won't know that until FY2017. 2016 numbers are just the tail of the first generation Apple Watch sales.

 

[BlueMoon63]

Apple Watch = epic fail.

Using the term Epic Fail really needs to go the way of First World Problem and Safari is Snappier or even "-Gate" - it's such a childish comment. Now, if Epic Fail was actually true and they sold 100 watches, then you can use the term. Selling 10mm-20mm watches in the first two years making apple profit $10's billion is hardly a fail. They have probably made $1bb on bands and accessories alone.

 

[FieldingMellish]

Is this the only Apple product whose demand is in decline in its second iteration?

 

[NufSaid]

Realize that this is like 3 billion + dollars?

Wish I could fail so bad

PS I don't own one but I am going to get the watch2 the moment it is released (new macbook pro as well)

 

[b001ean]

The opening of the second paragraph of the article needs to be revisited.

The analyst describes an "immature wearable device market" and a few key lacking features of the first-generation Apple Watch -- iPhone independency, no killer app, limited battery life...

The way this was written should be improved. A lacking feature would be a feature that is missing from the device. With the way it's currently written, "limited battery life" should be "long battery life". This is because limited battery life is a limitation, not a feature that is lacking.

While I'm at it, the 'no' in "no killer app" should be replaced with 'a'.

If you ever need an extra editor, let me know.

 

[iPadCary]

2017 for a massively redesigned wearable from Apple?
I'm interested.

Me, too. Hopefully it's something from the FuelBand guys they poached from Nike.

 

[Popeye206]

Well... I know I'm going to be watching what's in the new Apple Watch 2.0 and more than likely will buy this version. I held off on the 1.0 version as I felt waiting would bring a much better product.

So is this guy right? Who knows???? But there could be many others like myself who have been waiting or the 2.0 version from the beginning. And if it's compelling enough, Apple may actually increase the sales.