Is that a valid comparison ? Are you going to take into account how many customers apple had in 2007 v 2015 ?
Yes we know the 2001 iPod, 2007 iPhone etc went onto be huge. The real test will be generation 2.
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Apple Watch Demand Flattening as 42mm Models Estimated to Represent Over 80% of Orders
- Thread starter MacRumors
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
Is that a valid comparison ? Are you going to take into account how many customers apple had in 2007 v 2015 ?
Yes we know the 2001 iPod, 2007 iPhone etc went onto be huge. The real test will be generation 2.
It's a bit rich accusing the analysts of pulling their numbers out of their behinds and then posting your own dubious figures.
89 companies sold 6.8 million smartwatches in 2014
My point wasn't comparing sales, it was that these were people who were in the Apple ecosystem and love the brand - and that they're not tight with their money, they're willing to put money forward regularly.
I wasn't making any reference to a sales comparison.
If your phone is always in your palm, then the watch is not for you.
My phone is in my pocket, on the coffee table at home, or on my desk at work. It's not always easy to get to. My watch is always with me, and I'm NOT checking my watch 'every two seconds'.
I've worn watches my whole life. I like them. I absolutely hated when cell phones came out. Who wants to carry a chunk of plastic/metal in their pockets? And pull it out / put it back all day long? It's ridiculous.
I'm not on twitter or Facebook. I don't play games on my phone. The main use for my phone is to keep in contact with family and friends through phone calls and text messages. It's so much more convenient with the watch.
If you're into your phone 24/7, then the watch isn't for you - you'll be on your phone anyways, so what's the point? The watch is for people who want to feel less connected, while still being connected.
Oh, the battery is fine. It was at 42% when I put it on my charger last night, after about 100 text messages - I responded to about 10 of them. 3 phone calls - I made 2 phone calls and received 1. Checked the time every 5-10 minutes. Maybe 10 alerts. Plus a workout session. The battery is awesome.
----------
The Apple Watch is smaller and thinner than any other watch that I own. I own about 10 other watches - they're all analog watches.
I'm waiting for Samsung to do a 50mm one....
----------
15m sales in the its first quarter is "not a market"? Wow - every other tech company in the world wishes they had a product with no market that popular.
I think MacRumors should probably do a story on this too, but they won't because it's not click baity enough:
http://fortune.com/2015/05/21/heres-the-real-scoop-on-apple-watch-demand/
http://fortune.com/2015/05/21/heres-the-real-scoop-on-apple-watch-demand/
It's a bit rich accusing the analysts of pulling their numbers out of their behinds and then posting your own dubious figures.
89 companies sold 6.8 million smartwatches in 2014
So, Sportsbands are now smart watches... (a recent upgrade in definition btw) Seemingly... OK then. BTW, the 800K were the Android wear in the first 6 months, the only ones really comparable with Apple's watch (except of few Samsung Tizens). But, off course if Apple sells less than the the $100 "watch" one function band maker, they're "losing".
And even there, the numbers are kind of iffy (considering they're not sell through numbers when they exist at all) and most companies don't really report these numbers precisely all in their annual report (it they even have annual reports). Samsung's numbers are notoriously way off with reality (as seen in a few court cases).
----------
Is that a valid comparison, are you going to take into account the size of the mobile phone and smart phone market at the time.... And the fact that this product has a much narrower scope in a much smaller market. Unlike cell phones in 2007, the very need for the product is in question (beyond the pure watch aspect). It's also addressed at current Iphone users (not even all of them) and not the general market. Those are much more relevant than Apple's size at launch.
If Apple sells 65% of smart watches (even more if you discount the dedicated sport watches and bands) this year and makes 95% of profits (both seem likely), then they've got a major success on their hand.
We don't have any official sales figures for the Apple Watch either.
I wasn't suggesting Apple are "losing", I actually think the Apple Watch is going to be successful and expect them to really take off when the improved 2nd generation models appear some time next year. But there is still room in the market for alternatives to the Apple Watch, especially as it doesn't work with the majority of smartphones out there.
I'm sure the Apple Watch will also help and encourage other manufacturers to come up with much improved alternatives, as we've seen with the growth of Android alongside the massive success of the iPhone.
Because I said the Apple Watch isn't as useful as the iPhone, iPad, and laptops, I had several people reply to me pages ago to tell me how useful the watch really is.
I didn't say the watch wasn't useful at all. I said the watch is a far harder sell than most of Apple's previous products.
The iPod was instantly recognizable as a breakthrough in portable music players, and most human beings enjoy listening to music.
The iPhone was instantly recognizable as the best phone ever made, and it's usefulness is massive, and who doesn't need a phone?
iPad's instantly created a new category of simple to use computer like devices. People from every age group can find numerous uses for an iPad.
I don't even need to tell you why Macbooks and iMacs are useful.
But the Apple Watch? For starters you can eliminate most people who simply don't wear watches anymore, or don't want to wear watches, which is a lot of people. Then you have to justify to the potential customer base that this new watch is worth $400+. It's just a much harder sell than any of these other major Apple products. It's potential market is limited by all sorts of things. Old people will be just fine with regular watches, and would probably want nothing to do with trying to read anything on that tiny Apple Watch screen.
The Apple Watch has a market, but it's simply never going to approach the size of the markets for Apple's other major product lines. Especially at it's current price.
I didn't say the watch wasn't useful at all. I said the watch is a far harder sell than most of Apple's previous products.
The iPod was instantly recognizable as a breakthrough in portable music players, and most human beings enjoy listening to music.
The iPhone was instantly recognizable as the best phone ever made, and it's usefulness is massive, and who doesn't need a phone?
iPad's instantly created a new category of simple to use computer like devices. People from every age group can find numerous uses for an iPad.
I don't even need to tell you why Macbooks and iMacs are useful.
But the Apple Watch? For starters you can eliminate most people who simply don't wear watches anymore, or don't want to wear watches, which is a lot of people. Then you have to justify to the potential customer base that this new watch is worth $400+. It's just a much harder sell than any of these other major Apple products. It's potential market is limited by all sorts of things. Old people will be just fine with regular watches, and would probably want nothing to do with trying to read anything on that tiny Apple Watch screen.
The Apple Watch has a market, but it's simply never going to approach the size of the markets for Apple's other major product lines. Especially at it's current price.
Did you actually try one on? I did and it doesn't seem any bigger or thicker than any other watch I've owned. It's actually smaller than my current watch that's round.
----------
Well, it's an iPhone accessory so I don't know why anyone would expect it to sell as well as a standalone product. But I do expect it to sell better than anyone else's, despite the fact that only iPhone users can use it. I think it will entice many people who are on the fence about Android and Samsung phones to come over to Apple. Not the rabid Apple haters but the more reasonable people.
Widescreen
Watch. Good idea...----------
Last year I was considering a Pebble smartwatch. Then Apple announced the
Watch. As a result, I held off on getting a Pebble and now Pebble is in financial trouble, needing a $5M loan to stay afloat. I think in terms of quality, there is no comparison between the Watch and other devices.
15 million is the prediction for Apple's total fiscal 2015 sales. Still a really nice figure, of course.
Apple's reported sales numbers aren't sell-through, either. Moreover, they separately account for returns, which judging from surveys, could account for up to 1/3 of the first Apple Watch pre-orders where people got an extra with the intention to return the one they don't like.
Good point and true. Analysts have to depend on their network of factory insiders, parts suppliers, customs warehouse counters, surveys, and store exit polls. Which can be pretty accurate, or way off. The trick is to look for the middle of the estimates from multiple sources.
Actually, they were accurate. Unfortunately, there were some poorly researched, but widely repeated, articles that mixed up US infringement figures and world sales figures.
Yep. Although the percentage of all sales is kind of meaningless, since it doesn't directly compete with any Android Wear watches, for instance. The important percentage is how much of the iPhone compatible smartwatches that Apple sells.
Yeah, but it's kind of setting in earlier than you would expect. We'll probably need a few more months to confirm, but it's possible that Apple's new product category luck may have run out. Well, even if things don't work out for the Apple Watch, I still think it was a fine first attempt. Maybe a slimmed down version with improved battery life will be more appealing. Maybe a price reduction will convince more people to buy one. Maybe the smart watch product category is just too meh to succeed, even for Apple.
I would only use it when i'm walking, but that's about it,, since i prefer a larger display.... Trust me.. i can afford to take my phone for a mere 2 seconds.
However, making it cheaper will definitely get more people to buy them, but that's not the only point. To me, its what you can do with it, and there is nothing that comes to mind apart from convenience & fitness to just raise your wrist, a phone wouldn't do better with a bigger display.
I cancelled mine because i couldn't wait, but i may order again... I'm on the fence with this.
However, making it cheaper will definitely get more people to buy them, but that's not the only point. To me, its what you can do with it, and there is nothing that comes to mind apart from convenience & fitness to just raise your wrist, a phone wouldn't do better with a bigger display.
I cancelled mine because i couldn't wait, but i may order again... I'm on the fence with this.
@Camusrieux
Judging from the length of your frothing-at-the-mouth, irrelevant reply, methinks I touched a nerve ....
And I've been contacted by mods for a lot less.
Let's see what happens with this ....
Also: why, oh, why is not being a lemming being a "troll"?!?
Blecch ....
Judging from the length of your frothing-at-the-mouth, irrelevant reply, methinks I touched a nerve ....
And I've been contacted by mods for a lot less.
Let's see what happens with this ....
Also: why, oh, why is not being a lemming being a "troll"?!?
Blecch ....
Your guess may be unfounded. Having used Apple for many years along with a good majority of my friends, only a few of us bought Apple watches. All were returned once we gave them a fair trial. What we share in common is the desire to try each new Apple product so as to have the first hand experience to base our decisions on instead of purely relying on reviews.
None of us found a compelling reason to keep the watch. It's well done, yet it's only for certain people. It's likely to be a very limited market outside of Apple disciples that rely on Apple to decide what's best for them. It's a way of life that's on display here in the forum.
Just my personal observation at two nearby Apple stores over the past couple of weeks- very few people looking at the watch and almost no one trying it on. A big contrast from the first week or two when it was released.