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Apple Watch Demand Flattening as 42mm Models Estimated to Represent Over 80% of Orders

spiderman0616 said:
I've been using the Apple Watch for a few weeks now, and I would say about half of the benefit of owning it is the fitness features.
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Agreed. I do plenty with my Watch, but I find the fitness functions are the biggest value by a substantial margin.

I expect that balance to shift when (1) third-party apps provide meaningful usefulness (so few have, thus far) and (2) Apple Pay and other NFC functions become more ubiquitous in the world around us.
 
mrfoof82 said:
Not entirely surprising if the majority of watch buyers are men.

Historically, a watch was the only piece of jewelry men wore outside of an engagement/wedding ring. Rings, bracelets, and necklaces were almost exclusively bought and worn by women. Yes, things have changed in the past few decades, but by and large this remains true.

Though it wouldn't surprise me if people (regardless of gender) just opt for the larger face. Just like large sunglasses have been in fashion for a while, the same simply could hold true for watches.
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While men may very well be in the majority, to conclude that the presence of a penis is directly related to wrist size is asinine.
 
furam90 said:
But what major product has ever taken off by having the 40+ demographic adopt it first? You need the young people to expand. If prices don't go down and if it doesn't distinguish itself from the iPhone more, I don't think there's that much room for growth.

The biggest issue I've heard over and over again is, "So what does it do that your phone doesn't" and I always struggle and say "uhhh well you can have notifications on your wrist and there's a heart rate sensor" and then people look at me with a puzzled look.
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I agree with this and I think it's a major point worth emphasizing.
 
I signed in just to upvote this.

icanhazapple said:
good, let it flop. focus on making a computer that is upgradeable and stop being so hostile to enthusiasts.
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amen.


(don't really want it to flop, but definitely DO want upgradeable computers from Apple)
 
icanhazapple said:
The one where Lenovo is about to pass them, and ASUS as well.

So you have HP at the top growing at 3.5% and eclipsing Apple by a huge amount, Dell at No.2, which is still ahead of them in total marketshare by 10% (albeit decreasing slightly at (-3.8%), Lenovo at No.3 by next quarter, and ASUS a year or two away (they will carve out the low-end from 'Other' category that lists 2.7m shipments) from the No.4 spot. These 'Others' are not going to Apple. Apple is stealing the high-end from Dell/HP. Many devs I know are just walking away from the ridiculous Apple pricing, and Win10 is shaping up to be very solid.

That will leave Apple in the No. 5 spot by 2017.
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So Dell decreasing marketshare vs. Apple's increasing marketshare make your point how, exactly?

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mattopotamus said:
b.c having a watch half way up your arm is a good idea...

This is a 38mm on my 165mm wrist. You cannot tell me the 42 would look better/right
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Has an Watch, but doesn't know how to rotate a picture. :D
 
I haven't seen a single Watch at a major Los Angeles gym I work out at. Nor have I seen a single Watch on any of my colleagues in the Entertainment business. That stands in stark contrast to all other Apple products which permeate the entertainment business. Almost everyone I worked with had the original iPhone when it was released. Nobody has the watch. Perhaps the watch is gaining traction for traditional business types, either way, it's a paradigm shift from other Apple product launches.
 
What will be interesting to see with the Apple Watch is if it gets the same treatment as the Apple TV with extremely slow development, improvement, and overall lack of focus from the company. I have a feeling people hoping for V2 at the 1 year mark are going to be severely disappointed. Whether it's hardware driven or lack of killer App, the demand will plummet if people start the "I'll wait for version 2", and then its years before we see it.
 
kdarling said:
It'd be neat if each watch type worked perfectly on the other platform as well as its native one. Then price and features would come into play.
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That would be a fundamental departure from Apple's business model. A huge reason that they have the reputation for building devices that 'just work' is that they don't try to be everything to everyone. As a result, they can limit the variables in both software and hardware design. Fewer variables means there are fewer ways for unanticipated issues to arise, and voila, 'it just works!'

Opening Apple Watch to function with competitors' devices would represent an abandonment of that (highly successful) business model, in favor of being more like Microsoft or Android. That wouldn't make any sense and it's not going to happen.
 
chrismac2 said:
If they don't appeal to you, and you don't see the need. That's fine, but why do people in that category feel the need to, basically, evangelize their own "meh-ness" to others? What's the point?

People complain about $399 for a smartwatch, which they don't need, but does anyone really need a new 700 phone every year or two? Yes, that's what we pay.....just often it's subsidized through higher cell phone service plans.

If someone doesn't want an Apple Watch, fine, but what's the point in coming online to make sure the world knows how much you don't want a watch?
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It's more that it's the Internet, where jerks can loudly proclaim their unsolicited opinions to make them feel better about being unable to afford something. Anyone acting like this in real life gets one pretty swiftly ignored. It's not an attractive personality trait.

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Benjamin Frost said:
I'm afraid to say that if sales for the first year are below 10 million, a certain head chef's head will be rolling.

Here is the first evidence of the Apple Flopch.
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Ah yes, the Benjamin Frost from AppleInsider who got banned because all he does is crap on Apple:

http://forums.appleinsider.com/u/199133/Benjamin-Frost
 
It's all about the apps, stupid.

No killer apps, no sales.

Remember when Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone? It was the best iPod, the best phone, and a mobile web browser. 2 out of the 3 were use cases people already knew they had and were willing to pay hundreds for. The mobile web browser was something amazing most people had never seen and instantly knew they wanted.

How was the Apple Watch introduced? It's the best at telling time? Who the hell cares? You can track your health? Okay, some people want that, but that's really nowhere near as close to es many people who wanted an iPod, phone, or mobile web browser. And... An intimate communication device? What? That was just downright awkward and weird. Our iPhones are sufficiently intimate when we want them to be, and, more importantly, we can have non-intimate conversations with contacts using them.

It seems Apple is entirely banking on third party apps. Many seem a lot better than the intimate communication built in, but none of them are the needed killer apps for the Apple Watch to have broad appeal and really sale.
 
AmpSkillz said:
Look better... that's debatable, since you have a small wrist and the 38 isn't tiny on you, but i can certainly tell you that a watch face that is 4mm bigger would not be "half way up your arm" nor would it look silly on you at all.
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I meant the way the picture of the two watches had the 38mm on the wrist and the 42mm on the arm.

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bbbb4b said:
So Dell decreasing marketshare vs. Apple's increasing marketshare make your point how, exactly?

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Has an Watch, but doesn't know how to rotate a picture. :D
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Use attachments on a desktop from the photo app. It makes them sideways :)
Click on the photo and it looks normal.
 
Mac 128 said:
I haven't seen a single Watch at a major Los Angeles gym I work out at. Nor have I seen a single Watch on any of my colleagues in the Entertainment business. That stands in stark contrast to all other Apple products which permeate the entertainment business. Almost everyone I worked with had the original iPhone when it was released. Nobody has the watch. Perhaps the watch is gaining traction for traditional business types, either way, it's a paradigm shift from other Apple product launches.
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That's just a silly assessment. We all know about the supply issues. That's been a problem, but it doesn't really have major long-term implications. People quickly forget about the slow start once things get going. Look how many people on this thread have the mistaken impression that the original iPhone became ubiquitous in the first week it was out.

The reason you haven't seen all your workout and entertainment buddies wearing them yet is because most of the people walking around with one on right now are people who stayed up or got up in the middle of the night on April 10th to order one online. The reason your otherwise Apple-using friends don't have one is because they didn't or couldn't get one yet. Come back in July, once the logjam has been broken and see whether nobody has one. You'll probably start seeing a lot more of them in the wild by then.
 
I would buy one if I worked in a office all day, but I don't wear a watch. I think the price is too high anyway.
 
solipsism said:
Per my previous post, I don't think that will be too many generations away. Although perhaps more of a 40mm and 44mm move.
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My currently watch is a 10 year old Casio Baby G-Shock and it's only 30mm wide, but then that's all I need. Granted all it does it tell the time... I guess, assuming the strap size doesn't limit me, the 38mm watch would suite me better.

I'll just strap a iPod nano to my wrist if I need it bigger. :)
 
Looks like the Apple Watch hype might die even quicker than the iPad hype. lol. No problem with that for me. I'd rather them focus on amazing Macs and iPhones anyway.
 
icanhazapple said:
good, let it flop. focus on making a computer that is upgradeable and stop being so hostile to enthusiasts.
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A computer that is upgradeable is not Apple's MO, you're basically saying 'completely change your style as a company'.

I don't get what you mean by the second bit - hostile to enthusiasts?
 
MacRumors said:
Kuo concludes that the Apple Watch, like the original iPhone, has potential albeit several areas that could be improved. In particular, he says the Apple Watch has a lack of killer apps, not a very useful Digital Crown, insufficient battery life, room for form factor improvement, sometimes sluggish processing and response times and iPhone dependance for most settings and internet access.
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Several areas? Haha... More like every area! Seems Kuo ain't a fan and who can blame him at this point.

But as another poster pointed out, it'll get better and by the 3gen it might have that killer app that will make people want to buy it rather than just a curiosity at the moment.
 
sjinsjca said:
Obviously you've not shopped for watches anytime recently, at least not past the Timex/Armitron aisle at Walmart.

Apple's prices are by no means out of line for mid-market watches. Compare to Citizen, Seiko, Movado, higher-end Casios, etc... the prices of such watches are equivalent, but their functionality is clearly not.

I really don't get how this is so hard for folks to understand. This isn't a computer or a tablet or a phone. It's a watch. And so it has to fit into the watch market's established price points. It does.

The only question is whether watch-wearers (and some watch non-wearers) want on their wrists the functionality the Watch provides.
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But here's the thing...those watch brands command those prices because they are, you know, in the watch business and have been forever. They have brand clout in that space and have a craftsmanship selling point that Foxxcon can't replicate. They are also timeless to some extent and won't be obsolete in 2-3 years.

Apple is an electronics company and this should be subject to the price point expectations they've established for their array of gadgets.
 
applezulu said:
Opening Apple Watch to function with competitors' devices would represent an abandonment of that (highly successful) business model, in favor of being more like Microsoft or Android. That wouldn't make any sense and it's not going to happen.
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Of course it won't. I totally agree :)

My comment was simply a more polite way of saying the same thing as you did: Apple keeps crucial APIs to themselves, so that others cannot compete directly with them, and take sales away.
 
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