For most people here interested in the Apple Watch the prime criteria IS adding another Apple device, but not just because it's Apple, but because it infuses much better with the ecosystem. Most people here aren't asking for alternatives. You might want to start posting on CNET if you're looking for more people in your very unique situation.
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Apple Watch Orders Estimated to Average 30,000 Per Day in U.S. After Initial Surge
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For most people here interested in the Apple Watch the prime criteria IS adding another Apple device, but not just because it's Apple, but because it infuses much better with the ecosystem. Most people here aren't asking for alternatives. You might want to start posting on CNET if you're looking for more people in your very unique situation.
Relative to the claim that 800,000 units was the entire history of sales for all other manufacturers, the fact that fitness bands were included is irrelevant. The claim simply wasn't true. In 2014 alone Pebble sold 700K, Moto sold 500K, LG over 400K, Sony 550K, and Samsung sold over 1 million. Not hard to see that claim was, as I said in my original quote, wildly inaccurate.
Maybe you should take a look at my quote. Not sure why you're bringing up any of this since it wasn't part of the discussion. But you are right, it has no bearing on a product that wasn't even on the market when those watches were sold. So okay, I guess.
Again, not really sure where you were going with this.More meaningful to whom? Fanbois flaming each other?
Btw, those reports do exist. They're usually behind paywalls, but they can be found. A cursory google search can be your friend. Apple caring about market share is another subject that isn't relevant to the topic.----------
Please don't take this the wrong way. What's the relevance? You put up the chart. I gave an opinion of my interpretation of the numbers. Comparatively speaking, the Wii's launch numbers were benign compared to their later numbers. We are looking at the same chart right? Based on what you presented, what exactly do you see as inaccurate in my quote?
Seems this forum is mostly full of people who can't afford the watch and bitch about it. Probably just jealous. All reports point to Apple Watch being the most successful new product launch in Apple's history. Deal with it.
Anyway I got my Stainless Steel Space Black this past Tuesday and LOVE it. Early experience has me using the watch for about 60% of tasks that I used to do on the phone. Basically because the watch experience is superior for about half of all phone tasks. Also the killer app for me is, believe it or not, Siri. Its AI is now surprisingly accurate. It corrects faulty voice interpretation on the fly based on context, personal info etc. For example I was listening to a podcast on my BT earphones while biking and an ad came on. I raised my wrist and said 'Hey Siri fast forward 30 seconds' and it did just that. Brilliant. Also battery life is a non issue so far. I've had 30-50% battery life left at the end of the day - and that's after using the fitness app for a total of 1 1/2 hours.
So I'm certainly happy with the watch. Seems all this forum bitching is by a vocal minority of depressed, broke losers. Sorry for the dose of reality.
Anyway I got my Stainless Steel Space Black this past Tuesday and LOVE it. Early experience has me using the watch for about 60% of tasks that I used to do on the phone. Basically because the watch experience is superior for about half of all phone tasks. Also the killer app for me is, believe it or not, Siri. Its AI is now surprisingly accurate. It corrects faulty voice interpretation on the fly based on context, personal info etc. For example I was listening to a podcast on my BT earphones while biking and an ad came on. I raised my wrist and said 'Hey Siri fast forward 30 seconds' and it did just that. Brilliant. Also battery life is a non issue so far. I've had 30-50% battery life left at the end of the day - and that's after using the fitness app for a total of 1 1/2 hours.
So I'm certainly happy with the watch. Seems all this forum bitching is by a vocal minority of depressed, broke losers. Sorry for the dose of reality.
I see apple watch adoption as a function of brand participation: its a very visible way to express one's appleness. I agree the product will only be determinable over a longer term--but i would put it at 6 months to a year. Right now market bottlenecks have made aquiring the watch a sort of sport for brand enthusiasts.
Considering those "stats" basically have a sampling that we don't even know if it actually reflects reality and no real way to determine either way, it's meaningfulness is borderline at best.
Even if we take this estimate of 20K online orders as cash, they'd still reach 8-10M in the US this year even without a significant Christmas push in sales (which is unlikely) and without any retail presence. People can't go to an Apple store and walk out with the product right now, a major limit on sales for a product where trying it seemingly is a big sales driver (from people who actually tried it in the stores).
That means they'd easily reach 15M world wide... As expected... This year.
You're overthinking it. The headline actually says "Apple Watch Orders Estimated to Average 30,000 Per Day in U.S. After Initial Surge"
Apparently the poster you responded to doesn't understand what average means. Or they intentionally ignored it to make their point seem relevant.
No, I'm just reading the headline and looking at the graph. I wouldn't consider an "initial surge" to last only one day!
So if the graph is accurate, the average has leveled off to less than 20,000/day - now that the first few weeks have passed.
But I don't know why it labels the graph as a "projection" when the dates are all historical. It's an estimate, of course. But a projection?
All I was really saying is the headline is misleading. And probably deliberately so.
I realize there will be peaks for holiday shopping and so forth, but the current rate comes out at less than 7 million annually, whereas the headline figure works out to over 10 million annually. To some people, these differences matter a lot, and they'd rather mislead than simply confront the reality. Considering orders only started in April, it's conceivable these numbers could approximate the totals for the calendar year - surge, holidays, and all.
The point is that demand is down to a significantly lower volume than they want it to be, so they find a way to state that it's close to what they wish were true.
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Stunning numbers for USA only sales, here in Asia desire is off the charts and sales in China will probably exceed the USA, I can't imagine the numbers when you have 20 or 30 countries demand.
I'm so tired of showing and explaining I sometimes just want to take it off....not.
I'm so tired of showing and explaining I sometimes just want to take it off....not.
What form of math are you using? 2.5 million estimate. Over half on first day (let's say 1.5 million). That leaves 1 million over the next 5 weeks minus the 1st day. 1,000,000 orders/34 days is a 29.4K per day average. <-- that's just an example btw.
It's not that hard. 42K day 5, 19K day 6, and 29K day 7 still average out to 30K per day.
Estimate and projection are synonyms. Since all the numbers were based on 14,000 receipts, Slice is saying when the actual numbers come in, this is what they're projecting the numbers to be. I do agree with you that the word 'estimate' would have made that an easier read.
Based on whatever calculation you used it's misleading. Based on my math it's pretty straight forward. Not sure why you're going over yearly estimates since none were discussed in the OP.
Who is this mysterious they you're talking about? Slice? Apple? Samsung?
Slice is just reporting estimates. They have no skin in the game. Apple has nothing to do with these numbers. Your conspiracy theory is missing conspirators.I agree. My girlfriend works at a nursery here in the UK - one of those £90 a day places - (the parents are all loaded) and she says she sees loads of Apple Watches now. But, we shall see whether they become as part of popular culture and mainstream society as previous Apple products. But I think it'll take at least a year to see.
There are a few things that are affecting the sales of the watch.
1. Not being available yet in stores
- Once in the store, its obvious the sales figures will rise.
2. Long online wait times
- Not many are willing to wait for a order online. The need is not there so online order is not necessary for most.
3. Popularity
- It has not been out long, and many people do not have them yet. What is very sad is the fact that most people buy luxury, fashion, and "cool" products because of popularity. Many people live under a rock and have no idea what the apple watch even does and my prediction is that constitutes for more than 50% of people.
With that said, the sales are great so far, but with the previously mentioned beginning to catch on I would expect the next few months to be strong. As well as a VERY strong holiday season for the watch.
1. Not being available yet in stores
- Once in the store, its obvious the sales figures will rise.
2. Long online wait times
- Not many are willing to wait for a order online. The need is not there so online order is not necessary for most.
3. Popularity
- It has not been out long, and many people do not have them yet. What is very sad is the fact that most people buy luxury, fashion, and "cool" products because of popularity. Many people live under a rock and have no idea what the apple watch even does and my prediction is that constitutes for more than 50% of people.
With that said, the sales are great so far, but with the previously mentioned beginning to catch on I would expect the next few months to be strong. As well as a VERY strong holiday season for the watch.
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I saw my first Apple watch in the wild today, on the tube in London. It made me smile a bit.
I guess no one noticed that two weeks ago Slice Intelligence estimated that 1.3 * 957000 = 1244100 watches was ordered on the first day. Now they estimate that nearly 1.5 million was ordered, apparently based on the same data.
Pretty huge difference with no explanation. Obviously these projections cannot be trusted.
Pretty huge difference with no explanation. Obviously these projections cannot be trusted.
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I'm one of those guys who's bought pretty much every major Apple product / product category released in the last 15-20 years or so. I received my Apple Watch a couple of days ago. And I have to say that this is it: the first ever Apple product that I'm disappointed with as a whole. I mean - I've received products that were DoA one or twice from Apple etc. and vocally complained about that, but the product itself was never the issue once I got it replaced.
It's in no way better than Android Wear in terms of software and the hardware looks impersonal, sterile and boring. There's almost zero added value of having this thing and it adds some annoyances (such as having to charge it every night). It would work better if Siri were better - but it isn't. I just can't for the life of me understand why Apple would release a product that isn't even able to list the reminders I just had it create without telling me to use handoff to look them up on the phone.
Right now, it's a glorified Bluetooth headset that'll also tell you the time and annoy you more than it'll benefit you.
Which brings me to the conclusion that smart watches in general are doomed for the foreseeable future. If Apple can't pull it off, nobody can.
Right now, Apple benefits from the fact that almost all the people who bought one hadn't had a chance to check it out before they did. Once sales focus shifts to in-store customers, it'll be as hard to sell as the iPod Nano. I most certainly wouldn't have bought one had I had a chance to see the abysmal usability of this thing in store ahead of my purchase.
No go ahead and tear me apart - but this is my honest opinion.
It's in no way better than Android Wear in terms of software and the hardware looks impersonal, sterile and boring. There's almost zero added value of having this thing and it adds some annoyances (such as having to charge it every night). It would work better if Siri were better - but it isn't. I just can't for the life of me understand why Apple would release a product that isn't even able to list the reminders I just had it create without telling me to use handoff to look them up on the phone.
Right now, it's a glorified Bluetooth headset that'll also tell you the time and annoy you more than it'll benefit you.
Which brings me to the conclusion that smart watches in general are doomed for the foreseeable future. If Apple can't pull it off, nobody can.
Right now, Apple benefits from the fact that almost all the people who bought one hadn't had a chance to check it out before they did. Once sales focus shifts to in-store customers, it'll be as hard to sell as the iPod Nano. I most certainly wouldn't have bought one had I had a chance to see the abysmal usability of this thing in store ahead of my purchase.
No go ahead and tear me apart - but this is my honest opinion.
Perhaps you are right. But let me put it this way: I may be considered an Apple fan. I will not consider any other phone to replace my iPhone. I will not consider a Windows PC to replace my Macs. I will not be happy to use any other AP instead of a Time Capsule, Airport Express or Extreme. I will not consider to replace my Apple TV with anything except a newer generation ATV.
BUT... I really don't see any need or value or desire in owning an Apple Watch. Can I live without my iPhone? Well, maybe but I will not be too happy about it. Can I live without an Apple Watch? Most certainly I can and won't miss it one bit.
Apple Watch is the first Apple product that doesn't stir any emotion in me to own one.
I may not represent the majority, but I'm sure I'm not the only one feeling it this way.
(Read the post just above mine by kis as an example).
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How can you say you won't miss what you never had?
I may not represent the majority, but I'm sure I'm not the only one feeling it this way.
At sales of over 30,000 orders per day (and that's just in the U.S) post the initial craze of pre-orders I would say not only are you in the minority but very few people share your sentiment. To each his own. I'm not a customer for an Apple Watch but only because I'm not a trinket wearer. However I have to say you're not proving your point much by having me check out another member's post that agrees on the lines of your lack of interest in the iPhone. You do realize that MacRumors' members are a very very very small percentage of Apple's customers, although many people here seem to think we are their only customers.
The fact that no other premium smartwatch is really designed for an iOS device has a great deal to do with it too, I would think. Most of these orders clearly happened with no more insite to the watch other than the marketing (and maybe some tech reviews people have done) of the watch. So clearly, at least some of the sales happened based on inertia of the brand itself and of course, as you mntioned, because of Apple's track record.
This is neither in defense of or against Apple, but it is the truth. I would argue the best smartwatch out there, not including Apple watch, is the Moto G, and that won't even function with iOS.
I think you are right, there will likely be ways of tracking failure. It's too early to call it either way right now, despite that being what everyone seems to be wanting to do.
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It's lovely to know there are other calm, reasonable people on this forum.
Though I'd say I prefer the Moto 360 when it comes to Android Wear
Luckily, you have 14 days to return it.
No I don't - I had to import it as it's not available yet where I live. I was very enthusiastic about before I actually got it. I'm considering selling it, though.
I don't think he's in the minority at all.
At 30,000 orders a day, it would take almost seven years for every iPhone owner in the US to buy an Apple Watch.
In other words, only about 12-15% of US iPhone owners are buying a Watch right now each year. That's higher than the predicted 5%, though.
He's in the minority. And where are you getting you numbers for how many people own an iPhone?