Apple Watch Orders Estimated to Average 30,000 Per Day in U.S. After Initial Surge

[whatos]

Our house is full of Apple hardware but nobody in our house is least bit of interested in getting an Apple Watch.

This is the first Apple product that doesn't stir up any desire in me to own.

For a dress up watch, I rather wear my Hublot, Bvlgari, Omega or Cartier and for sports use my Casio G-Shock or Garmin serve my needs better than an Apple watch.

I wonder if this attitude is so far off the main stream

Walk into my office at home and it's like walking into an Apple Museum, past and present Apple computers, pads, pods, and phones abound. But NO Apple Watch. Bought one, gave it a very fair trial then returned it.

Walk into my office at work were we live in a mutiplatform environment, hence a wide variety of desktops, laptops, smartphones and more. With a company roster of over 12,000 employees...with a huge contingent of Apple lovers, yet an incredibly few who care one wit about Apple Watch.

It's a very interesting and revealing statement about Apples current focus.

 

[paulsdenton]

Last week on the radio at work there was a short commentary show called "Kim Komando" who said that Apple Watch sales were "disappointing". These sales figures look pretty impressive actually. Certainly compared to any other competitive product.

I wonder what the source for her comment was?

The watch does "grow" on you; mine certainly has. It has its quirks in the fitness area, but overall is a considerable device.

 

[numlock]

Last week on the radio at work there was a short commentary show called "Kim Komando" who said that Apple Watch sales were "disappointing". These sales figures look pretty impressive actually. Certainly compared to any other competitive product.

I wonder what the source for her comment was?

The watch does "grow" on you; mine certainly has. It has its quirks in the fitness area, but overall is a considerable device.

which in particular?

what more did that kim say on the watch?

 

[paulsdenton]

which in particular?

what more did that kim say on the watch?

James McQuivey of Forester Research was quoted in FORTUNE saying that the Apple Watch had outsold all other competitors combined in its initial days on sale, so no specific products were mentioned. Not sure how far down in the market this goes, however. McQuivey opines that these high sales are welcome news to competitors, in that they legitimize the product category and should ultimately "raise all boats".

Kim Komando basically downplayed the utility of the product. She wasn't enthusiastic at all. It was not a detailed review; it's a 60 or 90 second commentary.

 

[kis]

James McQuivey of Forester Research was quoted in FORTUNE saying that the Apple Watch had outsold all other competitors combined in its initial days on sale,

Which doesn't say much. The other smart watches equally suck. Plus android users don't typically have the cash to invest in experiments.

 

[Keirasplace]

He's in the minority. And where are you getting you numbers for how many people own an iPhone?

Apple has a nearly 44% penetration of the smart phone market in the US. That would mean about 86M Apple Iphones presently in circulation in the US.
http://www.statista.com/statistics/201182/forecast-of-smartphone-users-in-the-us/
If they sell 9M by January 1 2016 in the US (probably about 90M Iphones by then), that would mean, about 10% of current Iphone users would have one in the US. That's pretty darn good for a generation 1 product.

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Which doesn't say much. The other smart watches equally suck. Plus android users don't typically have the cash to invest in experiments.

Even at the current lower rate, its on track to sell 15M world wide easily. So, I guess Apple users have way more money than those downtrodden Androites.

 

[JustThinkin']

What form of math are you using? 2.5 million estimate. Over half on first day (let's say 1.5 million). That leaves 1 million over the next 5 weeks minus the 1st day. 1,000,000 orders/34 days is a 29.4K per day average. <-- that's just an example btw.
It's not that hard. 42K day 5, 19K day 6, and 29K day 7 still average out to 30K per day.




Estimate and projection are synonyms. Since all the numbers were based on 14,000 receipts, Slice is saying when the actual numbers come in, this is what they're projecting the numbers to be. I do agree with you that the word 'estimate' would have made that an easier read.



Based on whatever calculation you used it's misleading. Based on my math it's pretty straight forward. Not sure why you're going over yearly estimates since none were discussed in the OP.



Who is this mysterious they you're talking about? Slice? Apple? Samsung? Slice is just reporting estimates. They have no skin in the game. Apple has nothing to do with these numbers. Your conspiracy theory is missing conspirators.

Thank you for pointing out this obvious fact. It was right in front of my face and I missed it. The deliberate choice of the word Projection actually proves my point.



You see, they tell you what they're lying about right up front. They're taking the initial surge and presenting it as a future sales projection.



If I were a liar who could figure, I would've done exactly what they did. Look at the recent downward trend in the chart. I'd say:

"Cut it off now! - the initial surge is clearly over!"
"Next, redefine 'Initial Surge' as only the first day."
"Most importantly, get this article out now while we can still take this data and misrepresent it as the current and future trend!



Why would you defend this manipulation?

 

[69Mustang]

Thank you for pointing out this obvious fact. It was right in front of my face and I missed it. The deliberate choice of the word Projection actually proves my point.

I'm sorry man, apparently what ever you're trying to say is still stuck in your head. What point do you think you proved? The only thing you've actually done is walk away from your previous quote as if you didn't type it. What happened with your 20,000 estimate? Wasn't that part of your basis for saying they were lying?

You see, they tell you what they're lying about right up front. They're taking the initial surge and presenting it as a future sales projection.

Lying? Do you know what that word actually means? Plainly they are presenting projections based on extrapolated numbers. So where's the lie?

If I were a liar who could figure, I would've done exactly what they did. Look at the recent downward trend in the chart. I'd say:

"Cut it off now! - the initial surge is clearly over!"
"Next, redefine 'Initial Surge' as only the first day."
"Most importantly, get this article out now while we can still take this data and misrepresent it as the current and future trend!

Your thoughts had an accident in your inner monologue and what came out is the wreckage. I have no idea what you're trying to say.

Why would you defend this manipulation?

What manipulation? I'll help you focus and you help me understand.
What lie are they telling?
Why do they want to get this info out now?
Who benefits from this manipulation/lie/deception?

 

[JustThinkin']

I'm sorry man, apparently what ever you're trying to say is still stuck in your head. What point do you think you proved? The only thing you've actually done is walk away from your previous quote as if you didn't type it. What happened with your 20,000 estimate? Wasn't that part of your basis for saying they were lying?

Your thoughts had an accident in your inner monologue and what came out is the wreckage. I have no idea what you're trying to say.


What manipulation? I'll help you focus and you help me understand.
What lie are they telling?
Why do they want to get this info out now?
Who benefits from this manipulation/lie/deception?

Please try to be a little less condescending. I don't automatically have a defective brain just because you had trouble comprehending what I wrote.

I'm sure you're familiar with the original Mark Twain quote about how "figures don't lie." My statements might be confusing without this background.



20,000 isn't my estimate - it's actually what the source data (chart) says for the more recent days.

- I put the lie in bold print in the second paragraph so you wouldn't miss it.

- Since the order/sales trend appears to be going down, they need to get this report out now, before the (historical) average is dragged down any further.

- Anyone who has a vested interest in the sales "success" of the Apple Watch can potentially benefit from this misrepresentation. You remember Hitler's statement about how to get people to believe lies, don't you? Our primary job is to first recognize the lies so we're not manipulated by them. We can later figure out who's responsible for them (if it becomes pertinent).

 

[69Mustang]

Please try to be a little less condescending. I don't automatically have a defective brain just because you had trouble comprehending what I wrote.

I'm sure you're familiar with the original Mark Twain quote about how "figures don't lie." My statements might be confusing without this background.



20,000 isn't my estimate - it's actually what the source data (chart) says for the more recent days.

- I put the lie in bold print in the second paragraph so you wouldn't miss it.

- Since the order/sales trend appears to be going down, they need to get this report out now, before the (historical) average is dragged down any further.

- Anyone who has a vested interest in the sales "success" of the Apple Watch can potentially benefit from this misrepresentation. You remember Hitler's statement about how to get people to believe lies, don't you? Our primary job is to first recognize the lies so we're not manipulated by them. We can later figure out who's responsible for them (if it becomes pertinent).

Your argument is unassailable. Logic impeccable. You win.

 

[JustThinkin']

Your argument is unassailable. Logic impeccable. You win.

Disagree if you like, but there's no need to be a jerk about it.

 

[numlock]

James McQuivey of Forester Research was quoted in FORTUNE saying that the Apple Watch had outsold all other competitors combined in its initial days on sale, so no specific products were mentioned. Not sure how far down in the market this goes, however. McQuivey opines that these high sales are welcome news to competitors, in that they legitimize the product category and should ultimately "raise all boats".

Kim Komando basically downplayed the utility of the product. She wasn't enthusiastic at all. It was not a detailed review; it's a 60 or 90 second commentary.

obviously outselling all of them combined is very impressive. but considering that watches are a somewhat expensive accessory and the iphone is the leading "premier" selling phone i would expect it to be the best selling watch. then of course is the fact that the watches only really work with the same brand phone.

i have such mixed feelings about the watch that i dont know what to think about these figures (or most others).

 

[paulsdenton]

i have such mixed feelings about the watch that i dont know what to think about these figures (or most others).

Well I wondered if it was worth it also, but I've had such good luck with other Apple products that I thought it was worth a try.

Maybe the only way to find out for yourself is to get a low cost model and try it out? If it doesn't work for you it should be possible to sell it and recoup most or all of your investment.

I bought it mostly for the fitness aspect, and so far it has been satisfactory, but a bit quirky. The GPS and heartbeat monitor features are somewhat inconsistent but not outrageously so. I think they will improve as Apple gains real-world experience.

Most of the other stuff (email, messaging, phone calls, clock, glances, etc.) works as advertised and is useful when the iPhone is elsewhere in the house or office, but still within Bluetooth range.

I think the fact that it can do so many things, albeit on a limited basis, makes it a good extension of the iPhone. Of course, all of this is just my humble opinion!

 

[Cashmonee]

I find it interesting that so many are questioning the source of the numbers. This is the same company that the fans here were quoting to show huge initial sales of the watch. Why weren't their numbers questioned then?

I also find it interesting that 30,000 a day, and 2.5 million (possibly) in it's first quarter is all of the sudden good for the people here, who were mostly predicting significantly higher sales for the watch.

Look, it is way to early to say success or failure. It will take a few years for the market to show whether it is interested or not. Anyone who thought the sales would look any different than this is blinded by their love or hatred.

One thing can be determined at this point, however. There are far too many people who care way too much about a company that couldn't care less about them, and whether or not someone else is making billions of dollars.

 

[Keirasplace]

I find it interesting that so many are questioning the source of the numbers. This is the same company that the fans here were quoting to show huge initial sales of the watch. Why weren't their numbers questioned then?

I also find it interesting that 30,000 a day, and 2.5 million (possibly) in it's first quarter is all of the sudden good for the people here, who were mostly predicting significantly higher sales for the watch.

Look, it is way to early to say success or failure. It will take a few years for the market to show whether it is interested or not. Anyone who thought the sales would look any different than this is blinded by their love or hatred.

One thing can be determined at this point, however. There are far too many people who care way too much about a company that couldn't care less about them, and whether or not someone else is making billions of dollars.

The initial general estimates were 15M world wide by January 1 2016 (there were some people who were saying way more). These pseudo-sales estimates (those are not Apple'S numbers...) are only for the US. This is RIGHT ON TRACK for that. So, not quite sure wth your point is.

Considering there is no retail presence of the watch, supply constraints and a minimal global rollout, sale numbers are quite fine.

 

[AFDoc]

I highly doubt this is true and I'm sure if they are selling a bit, that it's mostly 3rd party resellers trying to get their 5% margin off of selling it at their crappy mini mall stores.
The apple watch is a giant POS.

POS? I guess that's all in the eye of the beer holder as they say...... beer holder lol. 3 people in my family have an apple watch and all 3 of us love ours for many of the same and different reasons. I'm happy with the on wrist notifications..... and the thump every now and then telling me to get off my butt and move. My wife likes it for those reasons as well as the fitness app and being able to send me taps and such. My dad has his own personal reasons...... Just because YOU don't like it doesn't make it a POS. Get over yourself.

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Our house is full of Apple hardware but nobody in our house is least bit of interested in getting an Apple Watch.

This is the first Apple product that doesn't stir up any desire in me to own.

For a dress up watch, I rather wear my Hublot, Bvlgari, Omega or Cartier and for sports use my Casio G-Shock or Garmin serve my needs better than an Apple watch.

I wonder if this attitude is so far off the main stream

30k watches a day says it is.

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The fact is that in 5 years time each of those 2000 Rolex's sold daily will still be worth virtually the same then as they do today, whereas those Apple watches will essentially be worthless

And? I see people make this argument a lot. What does it mean because as far as I know I've not seen anyone say they're buying the apple watch as an investment or even hoping to get an equal return on their money in a few years. May I suggest you find another argument to push?

----------

The drop is sales is normal, obviously the first day pre order is going to be the biggest, but the reason why no one is buying now is because the launch is a complete disgrace! I have never seen such a disaster of a launch from Apple. I preordered day one at 12 am midnight, they said my order never went through, after calling customer relations and fighting over the fact that I had a confo number on my app but no confo email they said my order number was not valid, that it must of been from everyone trying to order online. So after having no choice I ordered another watch, this time got confo email saying shipping in July! my order delivery was moved up 3 days ago to 5-7 weeks, June 23rd - july 8th, meanwhile, if you order the same watch right now on their website, the delivery time is 4-6 weeks! its just been a horrible horrible experience! I will never order online again, if its not in stores like usually and I can't wait on the line to get it day one, I will just not get it at all until the shipping dates are normal.

Ok.

 

[whatos]

While it is far too early to tell if Apple Watch has staying power in the mainstream, Apple's ego will dictate that they keep the watch in the product lineup for years. No other manufacturer is in Apple's position with so much cash they can prop up any product and declare it a success.

So it really boils down to how Apple chooses to manage the image of the watch. They've put themselves out their like the bully at school who's mouth keeps his fists busy.

I found the watch I had quite nice indeed. Yet as hard as I looked I couldn't find a compelling use case that didn't waste my time. Therefore returning it made good sense.

With the wide range of buyers and preferences I'm sure, as we see in this forum, the watch offers enough entertainment value alone to amuse a huge group of buyers. Much like the iPod did. Apple knows it's customers and it seems they'll have enough watch buyers to justify the attention Apple gives it.

 

[JustThinkin']

Apple's ego will dictate that they keep the watch in the product lineup for years. No other manufacturer is in Apple's position with so much cash they can prop up any product and declare it a success.

I think this one's Tim Cook's baby - at least he acts like it is. So that would be his ego on the line here.

I found the watch I had quite nice indeed. Yet as hard as I looked I couldn't find a compelling use case that didn't waste my time. Therefore returning it made good sense.

... the watch offers enough entertainment value alone to amuse a huge group of buyers. Much like the iPod did.

"Amusing" - good word choice! My fear is this may be the main feature of the watch. I haven't thought of a good use case for myself yet - otherwise I would have ordered one.


But I think it's unfair to compare it to the iPod. The iPod had a clear use case, which was pertinent to many. The Watch's purpose is still a mystery.

However, the prospect of getting an iPod fascinated people - well beyond its actual functionality or worth. So I suppose Apple's going for something similar here.

 

[randian]

Hublot Big Bang... inconspicuous? Lol.

Inconspicuous in the sense that the average onlooker doesn't know you're wearing a $10,000 watch.

 

[jlnr]

I think this one's Tim Cook's baby - at least he acts like it is. So that would be his ego on the line here.

I think it's more likely that it's Jony Ive's baby, as this article suggests: http://venturebeat.com/2015/03/09/jony-ives-reputation-riding-on-the-apple-watch-launch/

Plus Cook didn't look very proud when he announced the Edition pricing.

 

[kdarling]

I think it's more likely that it's Jony Ive's baby, as this article suggests: http://venturebeat.com/2015/03/09/jony-ives-reputation-riding-on-the-apple-watch-launch/

Well, Ive and Newson. The rounded rectangle is mostly Ive. Marc Newson is clearly responsible for some/all of the straps. The crown feels forced to me, and had already been done by others, so it could've come from either of them.

Plus Cook didn't look very proud when he announced the Edition pricing.

Yes, Cook rushed through that part. As we've read from insider reports, a lot of people in Apple were against the Edition.

I think that after decades of doing Apple device cases, Ive was jealous of Newson's much wider portfolio, and really wanted to add a "luxury" item to his name.

 

[the8thark]

The Wii's launch was relatively benign. It gained critical mass later.

I think you meant WiiU. Because the Wii was the total opposite of what you just said.

----------

The interesting figure will be comparing Apple Watch sales trends to iPhone sales trends. Because the Apple Watch needs an iPhone. How many new iPhone customers are getting an iPhone within 6 months or within a year. I believe this kind of data will be very useful.

 

[SwedenMK]

Production rate vs orders

My calculation....

 

[SwedenMK]

My calculation....

BAsed on the fact that it took 16 days to complete the first hour of orders, which was 62% of the first days 1400000 orders = 868 000 watches. Gives production of 54250 watches per day. Let's say 50 000 per day. Then the figures of orders in the graph in this article, then going for 30 000 orders per day.

Example. I ordered 4/29, so roughly my que number is 2 000 000. At May the 20th the production will meet 2000 000. Then multiplying with 5/7 if they dont work Saturdays, gives first week of June.

 

[SwedenMK]

Sorry, adjusted pict

My calculation....

New estimation