Depends.... who can really say?
I completely agree with you, except for the fact it's tough to predict where Apple will take this watch thing, going forward.
I'm sure the battery can be swapped out in one of these watches somehow (just like people have done with iPod Classics and other products). Surely, if you purchased the $4000-5000 gold version, you'd have justification to spend $150 or what-not to have a battery swap done for you on it, if it started wearing out in a couple years?
IMO, it's still kind of an unknown how Apple will support the watch in years to come. Since it acts as, essentially, a remote display and remote controller for the iPhone it's paired with -- the "brains" are all in the phone. Maybe the iPhones will get upgraded for many years to come with software that can still work quite nicely with older iWatches?
Right now, I side with the people who would only cautiously buy the very cheapest version of one of these watches, and see how it works out after 2-3 years. But I think Apple has an awareness that watch sales are a bit different than computer/phone/tablet gear, and can't just be obsoleted as quickly (as they're part jewelry items for buyers). Could be wrong -- but if I am, I think it will really make future sales tank.
I have a Tag watch I bought 5-6 years ago for around $2500. If I sold it, I could probably get roughly $1500 for it now as its in near mint condition. An Apple watch with a degenerating battery that will be obsolete within 2 years will lose 95% of its value in 5 years.
I seriously don't understand the purpose of the Apple Watch...and I've owned 6 Macs, 4 Apple TVs, 7 iPhones, 5 iPods and 5 iPads.