Apple Watch U.S. Online Sales Estimated at 3 Million Through 3 Months

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Apple Watch online sales in the United States are estimated to have totaled 3,039,353 at an average price of $505 through July 10, exactly three months after Apple began accepting pre-orders for the wrist-worn device, according to the latest data from market research firm Slice Intelligence obtained exclusively by MacRumors.

The entry-level Apple Watch Sport has been the most popular model among early adopters by almost a two-to-one margin, with an estimated 1,950,909 units sold at an average price of $381 since April 10. Meanwhile, stainless steel Apple Watch sales are estimated at 1,086,569 units to date, at an average price of $695.


Apple has also sold 1,875 Apple Watch Edition models to date, at an average price of $13,700, according to Slice Intelligence. The 18-karat gold Apple Watch models, seen on the wrists of celebrities such as Beyonce, Drake, Kanye West, Katy Perry and Pharrell Williams, cost between $10,000 and $17,000 in the U.S.

Slice Intelligence's data does not include Apple Watch sales in Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, Taiwan and the United Kingdom, nor does it account for walk-in purchases made through the Apple Store.

A Recap of Slice Intelligence's Previous Estimates

Last week, Slice Intelligence released new data that showed Apple Watch online sales in the U.S. steadily declined throughout June. Specifically, the survey revealed that Apple Watch sales in the U.S. remained consistent at around 20,000 per day in May before dropping to less than 10,000 per day last month.

The research firm previously estimated that Apple received 1 million Apple Watch pre-orders at launch, averaged 30,000 Apple Watch sales per day in late May and had topped 2.8 million total Apple Watch sales as of mid June. It also found that around 17% of online shoppers buy at least one extra band for the Apple Watch.

A Closer Look at Slice Intelligence's Methodology

Given that Apple has not publicly disclosed any official Apple Watch sales figures, and will be grouping the wrist-worn device under its "Other Products" category in quarterly earnings reports, the accuracy and methodology behind the Slice Intelligence data has been called into question -- so we went looking for answers.

MacRumors spoke with Slice Intelligence's Chief Data Officer Kanishka Agarwal and VP of Marketing and PR Jaimee Minney to learn more about Slice Intelligence's methodology. The details below should provide a better understanding of how its Apple Watch sales estimates were calculated over the past three months.

Slice Intelligence tracks e-receipts from 2.5 million online shoppers in the U.S., which it claims is the largest panel anywhere, that sign up for the company's value-added services such as Slice and Unroll.me. Slice, for example, is a free app for tracking packages, receipts, price drops, product recall alerts and more.

The research firm had a sample size of about 22,000 Apple Watch customers among its panel of 2.5 million online shoppers in the U.S. through July 10, more than double the sample size of about 9,000 shoppers it had when it estimated Apple Watch pre-orders reached nearly 1 million on launch day in the U.S. on April 10.

Slice Intelligence also offers an API for developers to provide users with their purchase history and can aggregate e-receipt data through some of these third-party apps and services. The research firm claims to be the only one to provide direct measurement of all digital commerce activity and customer loyalty.

Slice Intelligence says it is "very confident" that its Apple Watch sales estimates are within proximity to what Apple has actually sold, noting that its data is measured against third-party sources such as Amazon and the U.S. Department of Commerce with between 97% and 99% accuracy. Slice and Apple have not been in contact.

The research firm claims to have a diversified pool of consumers that is highly representative of the online shopping population and balanced to eliminate biases. Agarwal says that his firm's panel lines up nicely with the overall market and is supplemented by detailed competitive insight and data from clients.

Apple's Q3 FY 2015 results are scheduled to be released on July 21 at 2:00 PM Pacific.

Article Link: Apple Watch U.S. Online Sales Estimated at 3 Million Through 3 Months
 

Benjamin Frost

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May 9, 2015
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Good article.

1,875 Apple Watch Editions!

When did Apple last sell so few of a product? I think this may be a record. Did the Newton ever have such low numbers?

Thank goodness for Slice. They are doing what Steve Jobs used to do at each keynote: tell us how many products Apple have sold.

Jonny Ive has said that he is "very tired." The reason for this is because he tried his hardest to design a thin, attractive watch and failed. The trauma of a thick watch is just too much to bear. He knows his heart is not in wearables. Neither is the general public's.
 

Jsameds

Suspended
Apr 22, 2008
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I estimate more like 5 million since this dataset is only looking at US Online sales and doesn't take into account non-US online sales and worldwide retail sales.

Anyway it's really anyone's guess until next Tuesday, but I guarantee it's anything but a flop as the media have been saying for the last few days.
 

Rogifan

macrumors Core
Nov 14, 2011
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Why is Mac Rumors so obsessed with Slice Ingelligence? When in the past have they ever predicted sales of other Apple products and done so accurately? And since their data doesn't include all launch countries how accurate can it be anyway?
 

LewisChapman

macrumors 6502a
Jan 10, 2015
599
855
Good article.

1,875 Apple Watch Editions!

When did Apple last sell so few of a product? I think this may be a record. Did the Newton ever have such low numbers?

Thank goodness for Slice. They are doing what Steve Jobs used to do at each keynote: tell us how many products Apple have sold.

Jonny Ive has said that he is "very tired." The reason for this is because he tried his hardest to design a thin, attractive watch and failed. The trauma of a thick watch is just too much to bear. He knows his heart is not in wearables. Neither is the general public's.
Probably since the Edition costs $7,000+ a piece?
 

h0nd0

macrumors newbie
Oct 23, 2011
3
6
Ehhhh... I bought MY watch directly from a retail store. The few people I know, who have a watch as well, also bought it directly from a retail store and not online...
 

Rogifan

macrumors Core
Nov 14, 2011
20,928
23,687
I estimate more like 5 million since this dataset is only looking at US Online sales and doesn't take into account non-US online sales and worldwide retail sales.

Anyway it's really anyone's guess until next Tuesday, but I guarantee it's anything but a flop as the media have been saying for the last few days.
Back at the end of May Apple executives threw an Apple Watch party in San Francisco for employees who worked on the product (you can find some photos on Instagram). Imagine Dragons performed. According to one account:

https://illogicaloutcome.wordpress.com/2015/05/29/imagine-apple-recruiting-dragons-as-a-treat-for-a-job-amazingly-well-done/
As the dinner hour came to a close, two of the executive team stood up and spoke to the gathered geeks.They praised them, and their significant others, as being an amazing team, that accomplished so much and created yet another major product group for Apple. Demand has been phenomenal, and it continues to grow well beyond expectations. Jonny Ive then said, with his arms spread wide, “All I can say is, THANK YOU ALL, and you’ve all earned this event! Without further adieu, Imagine Dragons!”
Now honestly if the product was the failure that many in the media are spinning it out to be (the latest is a laughable story from Mark Wilson at Fast Company) would Apple executives be throwing a party for employees involved with the product and telling them demand is exceeding expectations? You don't throw a party and bring in Imagine Dragons to perform for something that's a flop.
 

unlinked

macrumors 6502a
Jul 12, 2010
697
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Ireland
And didn't android wear sell only 720,000 in the whole of 2014? So several different manufacturers, and 4 times the amount of time and Apple still sold more than 3 X the amount of watches. Yeah, total failure :rolleyes:
Only twice the time but still I think Apple are slightly in the lead.
 

BMcCoy

macrumors 68000
Jun 24, 2010
1,584
3,066
Significantly fewer sales than predicted by financial analysts last year, when the product was revealed..

They estimated 10, 15 and even 30 million units sold in 2015.
http://fortune.com/2014/09/09/the-apple-watch-what-the-analysts-are-saying/

This story reports only an estimate, and only US sales, but I don't see global sales for 2015 hitting 10 million, let alone higher.
 

Recognition

macrumors 6502a
Jun 27, 2013
596
654
Good article.

1,875 Apple Watch Editions!

When did Apple last sell so few of a product? I think this may be a record. Did the Newton ever have such low numbers?

Thank goodness for Slice. They are doing what Steve Jobs used to do at each keynote: tell us how many products Apple have sold.

Jonny Ive has said that he is "very tired." The reason for this is because he tried his hardest to design a thin, attractive watch and failed. The trauma of a thick watch is just too much to bear. He knows his heart is not in wearables. Neither is the general public's.
What you should really ask is...
'When have Apple made $13m+ from selling just 1875 products?"