I wish I could remember when we started seeing the major retail discounts of the AWS0... Although Apple officially launched in April, they really did not catch up to the initial orders and stock stores until late July. So, the product hit its steady-state retail presence around then. And, if I remember correctly, we had major discounts hitting in November and December. So, that is 5 to 6 months from retail supply stability to retail discounts appearing.
Flash that to today... if Apple gets to a retail stability state in November, then we could see the same Target, BestBuy, and other retail sales in March or April. If we see the same ~$100 retail discounts, then that will knock used sales for a 42mm S2 to the $175-$200 range, like it did before. However, if Apple does not allow the retail discounts, then used prices might hold in the low $200 range for a while.
Personally, I do not plan to spend a dime on an S2 until I see what Apple does with pricing this go around. Last time, Apple dropped MSRP $50. Maybe they will not do that again, but maybe they will. And at the same time, they allowed retail partners to discount prices by $50 - $100 under MSRP. So, my target retail price for an AWS2 is $300. And, my target used price is $200.