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Very good. Maybe this will eventually force Apple to release real iPad 2 and not iPad 1.2.
 
lol ... i'm doing the analysis the IDC should have. maybe i should become an analyst on the side.

Analysts produce the results required of them. Whoever pays the bills gets the results they want.

So IDC figured it was in their best interest to pretend channel stuffing counted as sales, and thus reported it this way. Then lots of tech sites can read the results without comprehension and trumpet triumphantly Apple's imminent demise.

It's just as not a month goes by without yet another story about how Android has "finally" surpassed Apple in smart phone market share. Amazing how this event happens month after month after month as if it was the first time it ever happened. Simple: just create your analysis in whatever way the client needs.
 
lol ... i'm doing the analysis the IDC should have. maybe i should become an analyst on the side.

So, you're telling me that 1 in every 5 households over 7.5k USD/year income is going to buy a tablet in 2011?!?!?!?

hahahahahaha ... no way.

There is an old saying. "There's book smart and then there is street smart."

How about adding these variables into your equations: One household buys multiple iPads. iPads are sold to the educational, government, sport and medical arenas. That's a lot of iPads you haven't accounted for, as you seem to be under the impression that a single person per one unit household is the only statistic that counts.
 
You're missing the point.

There are only 1.2 billion people on the planet that live in a household with more than 7500 USD in income. Assume that 3.5 people live in a household ... that makes roughly 1.2B/3.5 = roughly 350 million households that have an income of greater than 7500 USD / year.

I am assuming that households below 7500USD/yr would not spend roughly one month of their income on a tablet.

50M tablets / 350M households = 1 / 7 or roughly 14.3%. If you include last years tablets ... it's roughly 20% of households with a tablet.

1 out of 5 households ... I don't believe it.

I also understand the limitation of my analysis ... households can have more than a single tablet ... I guess that I have a little, actually a tiny, hope that the human race hasn't descended that much into consumerism yet!

The reason I don't believe it is because the tablet still doesn't have a basic function. It's not a utility ... it doesn't replace a phone/TV/kitchen appliance. I just don't think it will reach 20% saturation unless the definition of tablet changes to merge with a phone based item.

It still seems like segway ...great technology with no application. It does however have apple behind it and they do produce some products that are essential (phones, PCs, laptops) that could lure customers in.

Just my .02€

You are missing another limitation of your analysis. Businesses are also buying iPads.
 
I see displays for Galaxy Tab at Costco and there are a lot of them. I believe many shipped to distributors but few have been sold. If they were able to off-load 1 or 2 out of 10 they did well. :rolleyes: I played with one and it worked pretty well but it is in no way as simple to operate as an iPad nor did it feel as good in the hand.
 
You are missing another limitation of your analysis. Businesses are also buying iPads.

Exactly. Businesses are actively deploying iPads in the enterprise. That will be a large driver of growth. And those businesses are not going to be deploying Android bc its lack of security.

Maybe the Playbook will eat into Apple's share of enterprise sales if it ever ships.
 
You are missing another limitation of your analysis. Businesses are also buying iPads.

do you have any numbers for this? i haven't seen a single business in Germany with an iPad, nor anyone running iPhones in house (enterprise). I actually see more BB and Android usage with all the corporations. Granted, I haven't lived in the states in a few years, maybe things have changed.
 
Only 1.2B people live in households that have more than a $7.5k yearly income (consumer class of people).

Selling, not only shipping, 50M iPads this year plus the 7M from last year would mean the 57M / 1.2B or roughly 5% of people in these households would have one ... or 1 in every 20.

I just don't buy it ... at all.

edit: as an extension, if one considers 3.5 ppl / household that would be 1.2B / 3.5 ppl = 340M households. Therefore, 57M / 340M household or roughly 20% of households would have an iPad ... I think that's EXTREMELY optimistic.
Well... more figures for you to chew on. Stop assuming each one of these households only have ONE. Also, stop assuming that schools and businesses aren't buying these. iPad is huge in a number of areas.
do you have any numbers for this? i haven't seen a single business in Germany with an iPad, nor anyone running iPhones in house (enterprise). I actually see more BB and Android usage with all the corporations. Granted, I haven't lived in the states in a few years, maybe things have changed.
Please do your own research. This has been widely reported. Some Universities have begun to hand out iPads to all first-time students. Many businesses are purchasing large orders of iPads. Best Buy alone was recently reported to be starting a program. Just watch CNN and count them.


~ CB
 
goes to show $teve Job$' lies eventually catch up.

No, goes to show that you are clueless and keep up your vendetta against Apple and jobs.

Please back up which lies, instead of generalizing.

Never seen an intelligent follow up as an answer from you!
 
Just wondering when people start talking about Apple abusing it's position in the market. I guess the question is what is the percentage required?

Can you please specify what you mean by "abusing it's position in the market"
and who would be abused in which way?

Best tablet, best price, best experience.

Ouch, I really feel abused!
 
anyone want to make a wager about 35M iPads being sold in 2011 (75% of 50M tablet sales)? name your price.
 
Only 1.2B people live in households that have more than a $7.5k yearly income (consumer class of people).

Selling, not only shipping, 50M iPads this year plus the 7M from last year would mean the 57M / 1.2B or roughly 5% of people in these households would have one ... or 1 in every 20.

I just don't buy it ... at all.

edit: as an extension, if one considers 3.5 ppl / household that would be 1.2B / 3.5 ppl = 340M households. Therefore, 57M / 340M household or roughly 20% of households would have an iPad ... I think that's EXTREMELY optimistic.
Your calculations are fatally flawed because you completely ignore enterprise customers as well as education and government.
 
I wish tablets interested me. The only new tech things I'm interested in getting right now are the viliv n5 and the superpad from amazon someone posted here.

so why are you even here then? do you own any Macs? or any apple products? According to your signature thats a negative...
 
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_3 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Mobile/8F190)

None. A monopoly position is fine. It's how you conduct yourself while in that position is what matters. And the acts that count as abuse get very specific in this area.
 
why does samsung care once distributors buy from them? they have been paid for. Who cares if verizon or sprint offer 3 for 1 deals of crappy phones? the vendor has already been paid for that product.
Shipments being the crucial word here.

Market share of "shipments". Not sales. Shipments. This means absolutely nothing.

Many of these companies are hedging their bets that their iterations will sell like Apple's but if we go buy Samsung's coy comments on their actual sales I'd hazard a guess there's a lot of them sitting around unsold.
the reality is that android has already eaten into apple's share. just like the iphone, their strength is the competition from within android to keep up to date and the options available to the consumer, its a concept apple doesn't readily subscribe. The result in the phone space is apple was surpassed in market share already and doesn't look to be slowing down. consumers want options, apple does not give that too them
 
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so why are you even here then? do you own any Macs? or any apple products? According to your signature thats a negative...

I know as well as you that Apple is one of if not the most important tech company and whatever they do influences others. Also, the community here is enjoyable :)

And the only Apple product I owned was an iPod second gen. Click wheel with the green and black lcd screen. I'd buy an iPod classic if I have the money laying around :( such good devices.
 
Only 1.2B people live in households that have more than a $7.5k yearly income (consumer class of people).

Selling, not only shipping, 50M iPads this year plus the 7M from last year would mean the 57M / 1.2B or roughly 5% of people in these households would have one ... or 1 in every 20.

I just don't buy it ... at all.

edit: as an extension, if one considers 3.5 ppl / household that would be 1.2B / 3.5 ppl = 340M households. Therefore, 57M / 340M household or roughly 20% of households would have an iPad ... I think that's EXTREMELY optimistic.

We have 2. Bet that throws your calculations. At the airport, I travel a lot for work, I've seen entire families with iPads heading out on vacation.
 
Bottom Line

If the Analysts are right, then Apple would sell about 36 million iPads in 2011 and with 70%+ market share, that's a huge amount on continued momentum.

Also, it's easy to assume, all the other tablets that are fighting for the 14 million units, not all of them are going to make it. Some will shine and many will fail. It's going to be a tablet bloodbath in 2011 and 2012 as companies fight for position.

Going to be fun and interesting. :)
 
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