Apple's 'Doom and Gloom' Sentiment Reaches 'Extreme Levels,' but iPhone Sales Should Hit Bottom This Quarter

Discussion in 'iOS Blog Discussion' started by MacRumors, Jun 8, 2016.

  1. MacRumors macrumors bot

    MacRumors

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    Apple analyst Brian White of Wall Street brokerage firm Drexel Hamilton has issued a research note to investors in which he estimates that Apple will reach a bottom in iPhone sales, and overall revenue and profit, in the third quarter of the 2016 fiscal year, a three-month period that ends in late June.

    White claimed that all of Apple's supply chain partners that his firm tracks reported May sales that were "softer than historical averages" due to the slowdown, but he forecasted that the much-rumored iPhone 7 series will help Apple's smartphone business return to growth by the second quarter of fiscal 2017.

    [​IMG]

    Until then, the bleeding isn't over. The firm estimated Apple will sell 38.5 million iPhones in the June quarter, down from 47.5 million in the year-ago quarter, followed by an estimated 41 million and 72.3 million sales in the September and December quarters respectively, both of which would also mark year-over-year declines.

    White predicted that iPhone sales will then rebound to an estimated 56 million, 45.4 million, and 47.3 million in the subsequent three quarters, signaling a return to modest year-over-year growth throughout 2017. iPhone sales are estimated to reach 76.3 million by the first quarter of fiscal 2018, which would be a record breaker.

    It was initially reported that Apple suppliers projected weak demand for the iPhone 7 series due to a "lack of innovation," with other market conditions to blame, but a subsequent report said Apple has asked suppliers prepare for the highest iPhone production target in "about two years."

    Apple also reportedly increased iPhone SE orders last month due to strong sales, and the lower-priced 4-inch smartphone should help boost overall iPhone sales.

    Mac sales are also expected to bottom out, but not until the second quarter of the 2017 fiscal year, when sales drop to an estimated 3.7 million compared to 4 million in the year-ago quarter. Mac sales are then estimated to reach 3.9 million, 4.4 million, and 4.44 million in the subsequent three quarters.

    Given the current "gloom and doom" sentiment surrounding Apple reaching "extreme levels" this year, Drexel Hamilton believes the company's stock represents an "exceptional value." AAPL is currently trading in around the $98 to $100 range, while the firm has set a "buy" status with a price target of $185.

    In April, Apple reported its first year-over-year decline in iPhone sales and quarterly revenue since 2003, and its third quarter guidance of between $41 billion and $43 billion in revenue, which would be up to 18 percent lower than the year-ago quarter, suggests that trend will continue through the first half of 2016.

    Brian White is a longtime but somewhat infamous Apple analyst that currently serves as Global Head of Technology Hardware and Software at institutional brokerage firm Drexel Hamilton. He previously worked at investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald, where he held the same title, and Topeka Capital Markets.

    Article Link: Apple's 'Doom and Gloom' Sentiment Reaches 'Extreme Levels,' but iPhone Sales Should Hit Bottom This Quarter
     
  2. BeSweeet macrumors 68000

    BeSweeet

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    #2
    I think Monday will be make-it-or-break-it for them.
     
  3. tigres macrumors 601

    tigres

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  4. smacrumon macrumors 68030

    smacrumon

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    #4
    It's the price. The devices are too expensive. Price lower and go for greater volume.

    And people are buying Samsung meanwhile because they have zero taste. What's new.

    Looking forward to WWDC to hear what is upcoming in Apple world.
     
  5. Crosscreek macrumors 68030

    Crosscreek

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    #5
    The SE has everything I need and do not plan to replace it until it's dead.
     
  6. phr0z3n macrumors member

    phr0z3n

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    #6
    Just because someone buys a Samsung device means they don't have "taste"?

    Lol...
     
  7. 2ilent8cho macrumors 6502

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    #7
    Actual iPhone sales i think it will be a decent quarter for Apple. This next quarter earnings will have the iPhone SE sales in in, which still have a 3 week wait. Work colleague ordered 2.5 weeks ago a 16GB SE from apple.com and its expected this Friday. The SE has been out over 2 months and they still cannot keep up with demand.
     
  8. OllyW Moderator

    OllyW

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    God knows what the reaction would be on here if they ever had a quarter when they made a loss. :rolleyes:
     
  9. gugy macrumors 68040

    gugy

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    #9
    Just concerned Apple is spreading themselves too thin. Too many fronts. Sony made that mistake in the past. Apple should focus more on iOS/iDevices/Mac/services and less on watches, rumored car and Music.
     
  10. smacrumon macrumors 68030

    smacrumon

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    #10
    Really. Samsung devices aesthetically are tasteless. Bling and flash in the pan designs.
     
  11. phr0z3n macrumors member

    phr0z3n

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    #11
    You judge someone based on the phone they have?

    Wow.
     
  12. Ben2998 macrumors newbie

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    #12
    They never announce new iPhones at WWDC, if anything the make-it-or-break-it moment will be in early September.
     
  13. smacrumon macrumors 68030

    smacrumon

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    When there is the option of two designs and the lesser design is selected, just have to wonder why. Moving humanity forward, we should be going for the best things if it's possible. It's a judgement on the choice, not the person.
     
  14. ghostface147 macrumors 68030

    ghostface147

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    Unless I find a great deal on a used iPhone 6 Plus, my iPhone 6 is going to last until the 2017 model.
     
  15. TMRJIJ macrumors 68040

    TMRJIJ

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    #15
    You don't? Lol. I look at eyes, smile, shoes, phone, and clothes in that order. If a pretty girl has at least three of those qualities up, it's time to move to stage 2 - Personality.
     
  16. phr0z3n macrumors member

    phr0z3n

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    #16
    I agree the iPhone has better design..

    But a lot of people just don't care about design when it comes to their phone. Especially since they immediately put a case on it.

    Android vs iOS is a different animal however..
     
  17. DakotaGuy macrumors 68040

    DakotaGuy

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    #17
    You take all of this stuff way too seriously.
     
  18. yaxomoxay macrumors 68040

    yaxomoxay

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    I think he meant that Monday they have to show that there is still steam at Cupertino.
     
  19. phr0z3n macrumors member

    phr0z3n

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    #19
    Saw this girl the other day that was gorgeous. We started flirting and everything was going great. Then she pulled out her Galaxy S7 and I just walked off and laughed to myself. Man did I show her!!;)
     
  20. yaxomoxay macrumors 68040

    yaxomoxay

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    Admit it. The first thing you look at is not the eyes... ;)
     
  21. Razeus macrumors 603

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    #21
    My mouse will be hovering my brokerage's "sell all shares" button by this time Monday. I've made some money with AAPL over the years. My mutual funds still hold them so I'll technically be exposed, but the decision to keep additional shares outside of a mutual fund will come Monday.
     
  22. Gooberton macrumors 65816

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    #22
    Yes I agree it means exactly that. If you look the least classy people own Samsung too, and me saying that makes me have no class so I'll go buy one too
     
  23. now i see it macrumors 68040

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    #23
    I wouldn't think anyone (in their right mind) would be buying a new iPhone (except the SE) in June when the iPhone 7 is right around the corner. 38.5 million? Wow.
     
  24. bodonnell202 macrumors 65816

    bodonnell202

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    #24
    If supplies of the SE were not so constrained their numbers would have been better!
     
  25. patent10021 macrumors 68030

    patent10021

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    #25
    More like make it or keep up. They will always be playing catch up without Steve. Unfortunately this is reality.
     

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116 June 8, 2016