Apple's 'Doom and Gloom' Sentiment Reaches 'Extreme Levels,' but iPhone Sales Should Hit Bottom This Quarter

[smacrumon]

Your post should be considered harassment because it's an obvious attempt to rile people up with heavy amounts of ignorance, or pretend ignorance.
[doublepost=1465422427][/doublepost]

In what world? The iPhone 6 series phones are the ugliest phones on the market. Just look at the back of them.
[doublepost=1465422609][/doublepost]

They're not speaking from the average person's point of view.

We wouldn't have sites like MacRumors if everyone was considered the average user.

And here's an example illustrating my point exactly. Samsung Galaxy C5 and C7, launched last month. Great way to uglify the iPhone and copy the design in multiple ways, while botching the job in multiple ways in the process. Samsung devices have absolutely no taste and absolute zero originality.

​

 

[maxsix]

The SE has everything I need and do not plan to replace it until it's dead.

You and thousands upon thousands of others share this attitude.


I don't believe Apple is doomed... But the undeniable truth is sometime in the near future the magic that has carried the iPhone to record sales, will slip away. Nothing lasts forever, and Apple's rapidly beginning to look like every other smartphone.

Once the decline begins for good we'll truly see what Apple is made of.

 

[smacrumon]

@Phoenixx. See the above post.
[doublepost=1465440506][/doublepost]@Phoenixx. See the above post.
https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...tom-this-quarter.1976398/page-4#post-22984690

 

[PizzaBoxStyle]

Apple is still making lots of money and they have enough ca$h to buy some nations or corporations if they wanted. They are not going out of business anytime soon. Having said that Apple has saturated it primary markets and is currently having a tough time trying to open the secondary markets (primarily China and India). Given that the phone accounts for 60% of their revenue, expanding their other lines like Beats and Computers and TV seems appropriate (but they are not upgrading there fast enough). On the Services side they are also in transition and that has not gone so well up til now (iCloud and Apple Music being the prime candidates here). If Apple can manage a transition to the additional revenue stream while continuing to open up secondary markets, they will be fine even if they have a few slower years (they have the cash to support them).

The big concern is can they manage the transition and can they create compelling products beyond the phone. I think they can and the next year will be critical in this transition. At next year's WWDC we should be able to look back and either say we are really going down or we are headed in the right direction. To say we are going down now is too early IMO.

Right. They could go out of business though. It's happened before to bigger and larger and more storied companies than Apple even. It just takes time.

For Example:

At its peak in the late 1960s and early 1970s, Pan Am advertised under the slogan, the "World's Most Experienced Airline".[67] It carried 6.7 million passengers in 1966, and by 1968, its 150 jets flew to 86 countries on every continent except for Antarcticaover a scheduled route network of 81,410 unduplicated miles (131,000 km). During that period the airline was profitable and its cash reserves totaled $1 billion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_American_World_Airways

$1,000,000,000 in 1966 → $7,349,753,086.42 in 2016

http://www.in2013dollars.com/1966-dollars-in-2016?amount=1000000000

PanAm was unstoppable in mid-century America. Wildly profitable, top-of-class service and their aircraft were basically embassies for the USA. But... a change in their market (deregulation, private jets), a few bad managerial decisions, and external forces/outside events (energy crisis of 1970's, Lockerbie) ruined them.

PanAm's "war chest" was nearly 3x what Apple's is.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-isnt-really-sitting-on-216-billion-in-cash-2016-01-26

I do think that services is a promising avenue for them, BUT they are going to have to make a lot of internal changes in order to match and beat Google and Facebook. These guys are web-first companies and networked services/code seems to be just built into their blood. Apple had a huge head start in this arena with WebObjects (from NeXT), but they squandered it and the platform was dead (externally) by the late-00's.

And I also agree that it's too early to tell just yet whether they are finally "doomed."

 

[Analog Kid]

I've posted this before, but it's worth saying again:

There's one reason Apple's unit growth is slowing: saturation. There's no reason to sell more units if it doesn't bring in more money.

My guess from here is that their unit volume will continue a slow decline as prices among their competitors race to the bottom. Apple prices will probably fall more slowly than the rest and eventually unit volumes will stabilize at a market share smaller than what they have today. At this point, Apple will be able to generate enough profit to continue producing a product for a segment of the market that values it.

Everybody here will continue to whine and moan about how Apple sucks because nobody remembers that Apple's whole reputation is based on maybe 4 or 5 big breakthroughs in their decades of existence but they remember the high and they miss it.

This isn't hard to predict-- we've seen this pattern over and over. First with computers, then iPods, now iPads, and very soon iPhones. Apple doesn't play in markets with razor thin profits. They play in markets that value their products.

When those products are brand new, everybody thinks they're awesome and that Apple will be a mass market behemoth. When the market saturates and Apple's market share declines, people thinks Apple is a high priced seller of boutique items. Then the next category opens up and the sequence repeats.

When you look at it though, they don't really change themselves so much-- it's just that the market around them changes.

 

[poematik13]

Yep, be more like Kodak, do only one thing and do it really well, forever.

Until your company becomes destroyed by the competition that all moved onto the new medium that you refused to adapt to because you thought you were "better". The state of today's Kodak is really depressing.

 

[Analog Kid]

Right. They could go out of business though. It's happened before to bigger and larger and more storied companies than Apple even. It just takes time.

For Example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_American_World_Airways

The differences between an airline and a consumer electronics company are to numerous to list, but just start with one: an airline has enormous fixed costs and can't scale their expenses to match reduced revenue.

 

[Phoenixx]

Wow, that is one ugly phone. It's easy to see why though; it takes it's design cues from the iPhone. Compare that to the Samsung phones that follow their own aesthetic and look far nicer, and you can see just how fowl Apple's design is.

 

[Michael Scrip]

I've posted this before, but it's worth saying again:

There's one reason Apple's unit growth is slowing: saturation. There's no reason to sell more units if it doesn't bring in more money.

My guess from here is that their unit volume will continue a slow decline as prices among their competitors race to the bottom. Apple prices will probably fall more slowly than the rest and eventually unit volumes will stabilize at a market share smaller than what they have today. At this point, Apple will be able to generate enough profit to continue producing a product for a segment of the market that values it.

Everybody here will continue to whine and moan about how Apple sucks because nobody remembers that Apple's whole reputation is based on maybe 4 or 5 big breakthroughs in their decades of existence but they remember the high and they miss it.

This isn't hard to predict-- we've seen this pattern over and over. First with computers, then iPods, now iPads, and very soon iPhones. Apple doesn't play in markets with razor thin profits. They play in markets that value their products.

When those products are brand new, everybody thinks they're awesome and that Apple will be a mass market behemoth. When the market saturates and Apple's market share declines, people thinks Apple is a high priced seller of boutique items. Then the next category opens up and the sequence repeats.

When you look at it though, they don't really change themselves so much-- it's just that the market around them changes.

Yep... we've seen this before. Remember when there were 100 companies selling Windows PCs? Now how many are there? The Windows PC market got so fierce... prices were cut... margins were slashed... and soon only a few companies survived.

While Apple chugged along... selling high-margin Macintoshes (the only supplier of such a machine)

Apple didn't have huge volume with the Macintosh... but they never did. What they had was a unique product that only they could sell. And they sold more than enough of them... and they made a pretty-penny on each one.

And here we are again in smartphones. Hundreds of Android OEMs all racing to the bottom selling Android phones... barely getting by... while Apple chugs along as the sole-supplier of high-margin iOS phones.

I don't know if Apple will ever sell 75 million iPhones in a quarter again. But they don't have to either. What they do sell will make them billions.

Other companies would kill to have those numbers.

ALL companies in ALL industries will hit a ceiling eventually. There is no such thing as infinite growth.

It's what you do after you hit the ceiling that matters.

Apple is in a good position as the sole-supplier of Macs and iPhones. Like I said... they sell a unique product.

I would not want to run a company that sells Windows PCs and Android phones

 

[TheIntruder]

Brian White has been wrong on 95% of his predictions. So don't put to much credibility into his opinion and you won't be disappointed
Enough said

Yet, this guy generally seems to be positive on Apple. So is that a good or bad thing? LOL.

But if thinks the level of doom and gloom is bad, or venturing into extreme, then his perspective is very skewed.

(and, like I thought, PR notes that he began his career as an analyst a couple years after Jobs returned, so the only Apple he knows is the "risen from the ashes version," not the "constant deathwatch" outcast version of the company that preceded him. That's doom and gloom.

 

[smacrumon]

@Phoenixx Samsung phones don't follow their own aesthetic, you are kidding yourself if you think they do, Samsung simply copies aspects of all other manufacturers including Apple. Samsung has zero original ideas. Case of Samsung S7 copying speaker and connectors of iPhone 6/6s and iPad.

 

[navaira]

I've played with a Samsung S7 edge yesterday. It's absolutely gorgeous with that display. It looks awesome. However, usability suffers, because it's difficult to hold it without activating the edge. First, my friend tried to open calendar and took three photos of his hand. Then we actually tried to take two photos and ended up with six because something (we don't even know what) kept on triggering the camera.

iPhone, compared to edge, looks ancient. But usability of the edge... let's say it needs that software update Samsung are promising. I am not aware of other edge-type phones that Samsung copied, maybe I missed something?

 

[Xanthan]

You judge someone based on the phone they have?

Wow.

Sadly fanboys will be hypocrites here & whoever poor soul has their attention. Same people who fawn over the ethstetics of a square watch made by... Hmm? I forget. lol
[doublepost=1465460420][/doublepost]

Apple is doomed!

Ugh. Can't MacRumors make a bot to scrub such a useless, snarky (#1 go-to) comment?

 

[MH01]

It's the price. The devices are too expensive. Price lower and go for greater volume.

And people are buying Samsung meanwhile because they have zero taste. What's new.

Looking forward to WWDC to hear what is upcoming in Apple world.

One can have taste but not afford something. Apple devices are not fashion accessories, the problem as you say is that they are too expansive at the moment, and that situation is worse outside of the US due to strong dollar.

 

[d5aqoëp]

Admit it. The first thing you look at is not the eyes...

1) Boobs
2) Breasts
3) A**
4) Face
5) Chest
6) Mammary glands
7) probably face

In that order!

 

[MH01]

You don't? Lol. I look at eyes, smile, shoes, phone, and clothes in that order. If a pretty girl has at least three of those qualities up, it's time to move to stage 2 - Personality.

So the personality does not count unless she has an iPhone or wears expensive clothes. Nice shallow hal

I laugh at Apple fans who only date people who use Apple products . Poor kids!

 

[x-evil-x]

Maybe I do take it way too seriously, I think the design of these devices is important though.
For some unknown reasons I'm almost fanatical about it, but I agree some people just don't care about these things. Each to their own. We live in a world full of color.

do you cover up your phone in a case then?

 

[smacrumon]

One can have taste but not afford something. Apple devices are not fashion accessories, the problem as you say is that they are too expansive at the moment, and that situation is worse outside of the US due to strong dollar.

Sure, one can have taste but not afford something. Devices in general can be well designed or a result of picking bits and pieces from other people's thinking without any originality, genuine heart or deep contemplation about what is being achieved. iPhone pricing continues to be a problem for Apple a both attracting new interested individuals and even its own customers.
[doublepost=1465464757][/doublepost]

do you cover up your phone in a case then?

Actually, interesting question, and it depends on the situation. It's without a case except when I know there's a good chance I'll drop it on a tough surface.

 

[x-evil-x]

Sure, one can have taste but not afford something. Devices in general can be well designed or a result of picking bits and pieces from other people's thinking without any originality, genuine heart or deep contemplation about what is being achieved. iPhone pricing continues to be a problem for Apple a both attracting new interested individuals and even its own customers.
[doublepost=1465464757][/doublepost]
Actually, interesting question, and it depends on the situation. It's without a case except when I know there's a good chance I'll drop it on a tough surface.

Good to know. i love designs and people that complain about other phones and how pretty the iPhone is usually have their phones in a ugly cases. Ive been caseless since iPhone 4-5-6+

 

[pika2000]

Wallstreet analyst. Considering how these people have messed up the US economy, why do people still give them money and listen to them?

 

[Grey Area]

When there is the option of two designs and the lesser design is selected, just have to wonder why. Moving humanity forward, we should be going for the best things if it's possible

I agree on that ideal. Makes it all the more tragic how far we are on the downward slope after the peak of the 4S.

It's a judgement on the choice, not the person.

The person makes the choice. Judge the choice and you have judged the person.

 

[crsh1976]

Price is a concern, I went for the SE myself as I needed a replacement and couldn't justify shelling out the price of a new MBA for an iPhone 6S (I never buy phones with a contract, always the unlocked, untied full price).

Without going to the bottom of the price ladder, which would mean sacrificing quality, Apple needs to do something to remain relevant - a greater variety of phones (the SE's great price is an awesome example of that), but also greater innovation in terms of software and hardware.

 

[BvizioN]

When there is the option of two designs and the lesser design is selected, just have to wonder why. Moving humanity forward, we should be going for the best things if it's possible. It's a judgement on the choice, not the person.

It is subjective. What it looks good design to you may look a trash design to someone else. I am an Apple fan and I generally dislike Samsung as a company. But I like the Galaxy S7 more then iPhone and I would buy it in a heartbeat if it ran iOS.

 

[samcraig]

Ugh. Can't MacRumors make a bot to scrub such a useless, snarky (#1 go-to) comment?

Actually, given the headline, I think it's pretty appropriate as a snarky go to comment to have in the thread. I was surprised it took several pages.

 

[smacrumon]

It is subjective. What it looks good design to you may look a trash design to someone else. I am an Apple fan and I generally dislike Samsung as a company. But I like the Galaxy S7 more then iPhone and I would buy it in a heartbeat if it ran iOS.

I believe it's more objective. Simplicity is the key and it extends from outside to the inside. The S7 just ain't simple in design, it's not clean, there is too much bling. Although 6/6s aren't as clean as previous versions, it is still simple and clean in and out.