Also clearly reported on for some years now is that Intel made a significant investment in ASML in exchange for exclusive early access to the next generation of lithography machines. Since ASML has fully monopolized the high end of the lithography market, as long as Intel can execute implementation of said next generation machines without significantly more difficultly than other chip fab players that may come along behind, then Intel will be opening up a significant lead in the coming generation of chip technology for at least a few years. That story was set in motion a couple years ago or so, and now it looks like it is starting to play out as Intel planned.
If it does, then Apple will need to go to Intel for the latest generation of chip technology in the time frame discussed in this article. And to make that happen, they will have to start preparing now, so this story seems to be pretty much what should have been expected, right at about the time it should have been expected.
Time may or may not line up . Intel has hedged somewhat since they first talked about “5 process nodes in 4 years” pep talks.
“…
The first one is, Intel still has the option to have either a Low-NA or a High-NA solution on our 14A technology, and its design-rule compatible, there will be no impact to the customers, depending on the path that we choose. Second, High-NA EUV is performing to the expectations, and we will introduce it at the right time, … ”
Fairly decent chance that Intel will be heavily multipatterning just like TSMC in that three year time frame. High-NA also means lower limits in the reticle size for chips. So far Apple’s quasi-chiplet streaky has been a big mismatch to that.
The large die, expensive datacenter customers don’t want to give up those big dies if they don’t have to. There is a tension of drawing smaller ‘lines’ and multipatterning faster . Intel has bet heavily on first and TSMC has bet heavily on the latter. Pretty decent chance Intel may win the boutique , ‘smallest possible’ market over the longer term. There is also decent chance that also won’t be the highest volume market
This situation is a bit like the hype where folks were proclaiming that Apple bought up all the N3B capacity when it was far more so that they were they only ones buying while Intel time shifted to substantially later. Now Intel is N3B wafer constrained ) . Intel got the early EUV machines also and then flip-flopped into mega multipatterning on DUV for Intel 10 .
It makes sense for Intel because they don’t really have a high volume legacy EUV process to sell .Nor multiple ,super high volumes external clients to service on a legacy EUV process. But it is a gamble.
The fallback to regular EUV option for 14A is a more likely park for “round 1” . It will probably be seen by external folks as less risky.
Since design rule compatible Intel probably won’t be pressing High-NA super hard in that first targeting. It is only future years out where they may get a gap. Intel needs to find the zone of not moving too fast , but not too slow.
Some of Apple’s chips/chiplets could be a god fit for where Intel is going , but probably not all of them.