Apple's Stock Hit 18-Month Low This Week Amid iPhone 14 Pro Supply Issues

[Danfango]

Couldn't be more wrong. "The CEO is bananas" is pretty easy to fix - just replace the CEO.

Apple's problem is nobody has cared about the company or products in at least 5 years (really, closer to 8 years or more). Remember when people shaved the Apple logo into their hair or stood in line and camped for a week or more to get it? None of that happens anymore. Apple isn't cool at all anymore.

Apple stopped reporting sales figures because people stopped buying their products. Apple has instead pivoted to simply jacking up their prices to keep revenue growing. Unfortunately, shelves full of unsold product (despite supposed production issues) indicates that even this isn't going to work anymore.

Would Apple resort to destroying (sorry, "recycling") their own products, the way luxury clothing brands do? They could conceal inventory that way. They'd dismiss the margins being lower than normal by blaming production issues.

This is quite frankly complete rubbish, apart from replacing the CEO which is what I was hinting at at TSLA.

On Apple, firstly there's a hype curve. Apple rode it as far as it'll go. Then unlike MSFT for example, they started innovating and did a mighty fine job of it. They dropped out a whole damn new machine architecture for desktop computers which has not been done successfully by any vendor for 40 years. They are still the number one most valuable company out there and quite frankly their products actually work.

The production issues are genuine (I've worked on that side of the fence) and there isn't enough stock out there to fill some lines hence the insane waiting times for some products at the moment. There are other vendors fighting for the same production capability with them. As for the prices, inflation adjusted they haven't changed a lot in the last 20 years.

What more do you want?

Nothing gets infinitely more anything forever but the status quo is mighty fine.

 

[Ed A.]

What is your plan to offset all that gain? I sure hope you also sold something else at a loss.

Nah, paid capital gain tax on it. I’d have to pay tax on it sometime, might as well get it out of the way now.

 

[TheYayAreaLiving 🎗️]

View attachment 2134732

have at it 🤣

That’s not the case with 512GB or 1TB iPhones. Good talking to you today. Have a nice day and Happy New Year to you too! 👋 ✌️

 

[Zakn]

This is quite frankly complete rubbish, apart from replacing the CEO which is what I was hinting at at TSLA.

On Apple, firstly there's a hype curve. Apple rode it as far as it'll go. Then unlike MSFT for example, they started innovating and did a mighty fine job of it. They dropped out a whole damn new machine architecture for desktop computers which has not been done successfully by any vendor for 40 years. They are still the number one most valuable company out there and quite frankly their products actually work.

The production issues are genuine (I've worked on that side of the fence) and there isn't enough stock out there to fill some lines hence the insane waiting times for some products at the moment. There are other vendors fighting for the same production capability with them. As for the prices, inflation adjusted they haven't changed a lot in the last 20 years.

What more do you want?

Nothing gets infinitely more anything forever but the status quo is mighty fine.

The article is about the iPhone and iPhone sales represent more than 50% of Apple revenue. Can you please tell me the innovations in the iPhones for the last 5 years ? If Apple decided to stop giving the iPhones unit sales, it was for a reason : iPhone sales (by units) are plateauing and the only way to increase revenue was increasing prices.

Do you realize one of the most expected "features" of the next iPhone generation is USB C ? I am sorry if it is the case for you but the "dynamic island" was not a convincing feature for me to upgrade to this iPhone generation.

You can go by yourself to the Apple Store and check and you will see that in France, where I live, you can get whatever iPhone model in whatever color you want. So what supply issues are you talking about ? The supply problems were for one week in December and they are resolved for now.

 

[Ed A.]

Depends on your time horizon. I couldn’t care less about a single quarter or even a single year. I’m still holding AAPL shares I’ve had since 2007.

True about the time horizon, but what if Apple starts losing their dominance in the industry? Others have said it, they don’t seem to be as innovative as they once were. I see things like the Apple car being pushed back to 2026 and they still don’t have a real prototype to show, not even an artist concept. All their current products are really incremental upgrades. I usually get a new iPhone every year, but I’m not trading up my iPhone 13 mini this year. Everything else they’re making is just not compelling enough for people to plunk their money down today, with inflation as it is. I know it’s blasphemous, but Google Pixel 7 is starting to look good to me.

 

[QCassidy352]

Apple's problem is nobody has cared about the company or products in at least 5 years (really, closer to 8 years or more). Remember when people shaved the Apple logo into their hair or stood in line and camped for a week or more to get it? None of that happens anymore. Apple isn't cool at all anymore.

Totally disagree. Apple’s problems are all macro, such as Covid in China and global economic fears. Again, look at the rest of big tech’s stock - Google, Amazon, Meta, Nvidea, Tesla, Netflix, Microsoft. Nobody is escaping unphased, and Apple is doing better than most.

 

[QCassidy352]

True about the time horizon, but what if Apple starts losing their dominance in the industry? Others have said it, they don’t seem to be as innovative as they once were. I see things like the Apple car being pushed back to 2026 and they still don’t have a real prototype to show, not even an artist concept. All their current products are really incremental upgrades. I usually get a new iPhone every year, but I’m not trading up my iPhone 13 mini this year. Everything else they’re making is just not compelling enough for people to plunk their money down today, with inflation as it is. I know it’s blasphemous, but Google Pixel 7 is starting to look good to me.

They have a mountain of cash, insane revenue, and a devoted customer following. No company is indestructible, but Apple continues to be in a great position. As for AAPL, Apple is aggressive with buybacks and have a ton of room to grow dividends if they can’t spend the cash any other way.

Not much of a growth stock at this point, but still somewhere I’m very happy to have some of my money.

 

[compwiz1202]

A month ago or before Christmas that was not the case. Apple is starting to catch up now. Better to wait what new color Apple will introduce in March 2023 Apple event.

View attachment 2134716

Which is that? I always do 14PM 256GB Purple. Store stock has been decent since about a week. Right not six nearby stores have it. But shipping is Jan 10-17, which isn't really any better if not worse than before.

 

[vikingjunior]

That's only partly true. The pandemic, stay at home culture, pandemic free money and low interest rates contributed to too much money in the stock market. It had to be shaken out once the reality changed. Companies with actual long established and stable business that don't rely on hype have had less correction than meme companies and hype companies.

Do not buy stock dips in any companies or take advice from anyone who says "dollar cost average" unless you are wealthy enough to increase your exposure to volatile markets. These are not comfortable times and there are global security risks.

There's going to be quite interesting events ahead. Holmes and SBF going to jail is nothing compared to some of the other CEO scammers who have been defrauding investors, laundering money in Bahamas/UAE and using troll factories to pump their companies.

Great that should make for some new episodes of "American Greed" love that show.

 

[vegetassj4]

The shorts have it, they are gonna chop Apple up and sell it in pieces:

 

[ponzicoinbro]

Apple's problem is nobody has cared about the company or products in at least 5 years (really, closer to 8 years or more). Remember when people shaved the Apple logo into their hair or stood in line and camped for a week or more to get it? None of that happens anymore. Apple isn't cool at all anymore.

Now that's wrong in every way. We have literally had a complete revamp of the hardware design and architecture that addressed everyone's issues with the late Intel era and there has been a fantastic response.

 

[Realityck]

There wouldn’t have been an issue if Apple had not relied solely on China.

I think one thing we learned in 2022 is that too much of Apple revenue is centered around iPhones and services. They badly need to start showing consumers how more of their products work together to make lifestyles better. This last year is a missed opportunity to hyping existing products while ignoring most of what they sell when everyone is stuck home. One saving grace is tackling shortcomings of their OS’s, instead of adding features that are easily forgotten.

2023 is more important then ever to show what Apple is known for.

 

[Kierkegaarden]

Outdated article, or it could have mentioned that they bounced off these lows yesterday based on a report of increased production of the Pro line.

 

[ilikewhey]

That’s not the case with 512GB or 1TB iPhones. Good talking to you today. Have a nice day and Happy New Year to you too! 👋 ✌️

still the case regardless of what storage options, i have over 20 colleagues on my floor, 4 of them through the span of first launch to now, all of them were able to pick up their 14 pro/pro max as walk in through various stores in manhattan. whats your source, couple online articles fearmongering supply shortage out of china? 🤣

 

[ilikewhey]

I think one thing we learned in 2022 is that too much of Apple revenue is centered around iPhones and services. They badly need to start showing consumers how more of their products work together to make lifestyles better. This last year is a missed opportunity to hyping existing products while ignoring most of what they sell when everyone is stuck home. One saving grace is tackling shortcomings of their OS’s, instead of adding features that are easily forgotten.

2023 is more important then ever to show what Apple is known for.

what do you expect when 50% of revenue comes from iphone sales.

 

[Jankie]

Outdated article, or it could have mentioned that they bounced off these lows yesterday based on a report of increased production of the Pro line.

I would say fairly timely. Macrumors is not Bloomberg or Zerohedge.

However, it is obvious that there are some savvy investors on this site. It is their insight that made commentary more interesting than most recently.

 

[genovelle]

No it isn’t. I sold 8,950 shares this year, sold my last 1,000 shares about a month and a half ago. My cost basis was $45. I think they’ll have a terrible January quarter and not a good outlook.

And apple was glad to scoop them up. Apple is a long term stock and every time the stock has dipped over the last 10 years, Apple increases buy backs, then it bounces back
Even higher. Let’s see if the negative sentiment actually sticks this time.

 

[citysnaps]

No it isn’t. I sold 8,950 shares this year, sold my last 1,000 shares about a month and a half ago. My cost basis was $45. I think they’ll have a terrible January quarter and not a good outlook.

How nice for you - thanks for sharing!

 

[compwiz1202]

still the case regardless of what storage options, i have over 20 colleagues on my floor, 4 of them through the span of first launch to now, all of them were able to pick up their 14 pro/pro max as walk in through various stores in manhattan. whats your source, couple online articles fearmongering supply shortage out of china? 🤣

It most likely depends on where. I looked up 14PM 512GB Purple and every single store in range had stock. I then looked up every color of 14PM 512 and TB and at least one store had store for every choice

 

[doboy]

What do you expect with no new device and just lame hardware updates (except for the Watch Ultra) and software updates that are riddled with bugs.

 

[Jankie]

And apple was glad to scoop them up. Apple is a long term stock and every time the stock has dipped over the last 10 years, Apple increases buy backs, then it bounces back
Even higher. Let’s see if the negative sentiment actually sticks this time.

Possibly, but not as guaranteed as years past.

Why?
1) In prior years Apple financed stock buybacks by selling bonds. This was cheap debt since interest rates were much lower.
2) New 1% tax on stock buybacks passed by congress.

As a result, stock buybacks and rolling their debt will be more costly. Not saying they won’t continue at the same pace or an increased pace, just saying that the decision is not as easy for Apple as it has been.

 

[Apple_Robert]

Man I like my iPhone but yesterday I saw the galaxy z fold! It’s amaziiing! I’m starting to feel that my iphone just looks too old and basic

Don't allow yourself to be so easily swayed by marketing. There is only so many ways to answer and use the phone as a phone.

 

[antonrg]

The problem with Apple shares is not only supply issues. Wall street understands now that they have a demand problem too : you can pick whichever iPhone model you want at Apple stores in France today, so there is not really a supply problem.

The problem is demand for iPhones priced starting from 1000 euros and 1300 euros for the iPhone pro and the luck of innovation in the last models. You can't convince me to update from the 13 to the 14 for the "dynamic island" or buy the 15 for USB C. They need either to innovate or to reduce prices to increase sales.

There is also the problem with the changes to the App store which will impact the Services revenue (first in EU, and later in the US if the legislation is adopted).

So, it is not only a supply issues but also questions about Apple ability to continue growing its revenue.

Totally agree with you. I just passed by Paris Opéra Apple store this week and every iPhone model is available. It’s the prices that have gone up way too high.

 

[ilikewhey]

And apple was glad to scoop them up. Apple is a long term stock and every time the stock has dipped over the last 10 years, Apple increases buy backs, then it bounces back
Even higher. Let’s see if the negative sentiment actually sticks this time.

lol no company is glad to do buyback, they do it to keep the shares marginal on the market therefore inflate their cost/share. however with the raising interest rates and added tax passed by congress, i highly doubt apple can repeat their previous action in the same manner as prior.

 

[Jankie]

lol no company is glad to do buyback, they do it to keep the shares marginal on the market therefore inflate their cost/share. however with the raising interest rates and added tax passed by congress, i highly doubt apple can repeat their previous action in the same manner as prior.

Haha! I see we think alike. See my comment above 😉