Apple's U.S. iPhone User Base Sees Slowing Growth in Q1 2019

[78Bandit]

Device sales have been stagnant since 2015, both for Apple and for the smartphone market as a whole. It isn't surprising that Apple has peaked, it had to happen at some point. Devices are lasting longer so active devices can climb for a while even after sales level off.

The next few years will be interesting. Hardware revenue is going to fluctuate in a narrow range unless Apple does something stupid to drive users away. Future growth is very limited even with China and India being underrepresented. Services are key and Apple is investing heavily into that market. We'll just have to wait a couple more years to be able to see if that works out and can drive revenue and profit growth at a rate that supports the company's market value.

 

[WatchFromAfar]

You’re really hung up on market share.

Too bad all those that count (like developers - which I mentioned originally) don’t care about market share. Which is why iOS makes developers 4X as much money as Android.

Edit: And what’s with linking a chart from Europe? Twice. Cherry pick much?

I guess the USA doesn't shine out of the rest of the World's ass?

 

[curtvaughan]

Oh look, some opinion pieces and click bait articles being passed off as fact. How come you never linked to any articles about things like customer satisfaction? You know, actual real data taken from users themselves?

If I wanted to look for customer satisfaction, I'd look at sites like 9to5 Mac and to some extent, MacRumors. One of the reasons I continue to visit MacRumors is that I can get both pro's and con's on Apple products and services. Many of the folks expressing negative views on MacRumors have been long time customers/users of Apple products (I'm one of those, having first dabbled on an Apple II over 30 years ago). Over the decades, as an Apple customer, one notices trends - both good and bad. Apple definitely trended up from its inception in the late 70s through the mid-80s. It lost its way for the years Steve Jobs was MIA working on the NextStep; it trended up again with his return, bringing much of his experience with the Next and Pixar back to Apple. Apple's fine reputation and success blossomed upon Jobs return and continued until his retirement and death. Since then, beginning around 2016, I have begun to notice (just my opinion, mind you) another down trend. Hardware design decisions have entailed increasing QC issues, removal of functionality (lack of ports, soldered/glued components, to name some), as well as a slowing of software development (especially with MacOS). Price increases have also accelerated. This is just a trend with the company AS I SEE IT. You can believe and act differently. My opinions on this are only mine, and as one person, my only real influence is to stop buying Apple products which I no longer find useful or pleasing for the price. I stopped buying Apple Macs around the time SJ left, and didn't come back to the fold until he came back - not just because he came back, but because he came back making decided changes in Apple necessary at the time for Apple even to survive. Apple not only survived, but thrived for the next decade.

Anyway, perhaps Apple will continue to have success with other endeavors, such as services. That remains to be seen. If it continues to be successful by leaving the general personal computer hardware/software business, so be it. Time will tell.

 

[oneMadRssn]

For the average consumer, what does Apple have that the competition sorely lacks nowadays? Having FaceID did not make consumers switch to an iPhone. My phone does not have the feature, but if it did it will be the first thing to disable/bypass. A passcode is more secure than a thumbprint or FaceID. Think about it for a minute!

For me, the most important feature is the tight integration between iOS and macOS. The fact that I can seamlessly send and receive texts, and make and receive calls, from the iPhone, iPad, or Macbook, with everything all synced up perfectly and nearly instantly, is an amazing feature that the competition sorely lacks.

 

[DNichter]

I love the new AirPlay 2 interface on the iPhone lock screen, being able to easily control everything on my Apple TV from there. On top of that, I just randomly said to my HomePod "Hey Siri, play Chernobyl on the Living Room" and it fired up perfectly. I think it has taken some time to get everything working, but the ecosystem time just keeps getting better for me. Whenever I get challenged about changing platforms (a lot), the only "advantage" pointed out to me is specs and price. It's interesting that that is still the argument after all these years and it makes zero difference to me any many other Apple users. It's the overall integration of software and services with quality hardware across many form factors. I don't see that changing anytime soon, although every other tech company is trying their best.

 

[GtrDude]

Until Apple...
1. Allows more than four icons per row, especially in the bottom row.
2. Has number row on their keyboards.
3. Has haptic feedback on their keyboards.
4. Gets better cell phone and general call quality connections.
5. Updates their calendar app.
6. Learns to attach images from Android. 10x easier.
7. Has better search bar function. No search bar possible on any screen. Are you joking?
8. Has better battery life
9. Fixes their utterly ridiculous notifications panel.
10. Instead of always having to go all the way to the top of the phone make it possible to just go from anywhere on the the screen to both access the Control Center and see notifications.
...I'm not buying an iPhone

In addition it would also be nice to get to see the battery percentage at the top at all time.
But it's not a deal maker. However on a phone with such a bad battery performance it would come in handy.

 

[I7guy]

Until Apple...
1. Allows more than four icons per row, especially in the bottom row.
2. Has number row on their keyboards.
3. Has haptic feedback on their keyboards.
4. Gets better cell phone and general call quality connections.
5. Updates their calendar app.
6. Learns to attach images from Android. 10x easier.
7. Has better search bar function. No search bar possible on any screen. Are you joking?
8. Has better battery life
9. Fixes their utterly ridiculous notifications panel.
10. Instead of always having to go all the way to the top of the phone make it possible to just go from anywhere on the the screen to both access the Control Center and see notifications.
...I'm not buying an iPhone

Okay, that’s not how I feel as I bought the max. Are you trying to suggest the 10 things mentioned is why the growth slowed?

 

[MacDaddyPanda]

That's almost 2/3 of the US population. And they're complaining about a 2% growth?

 

[CarlJ]

For me, the most important feature is the tight integration between iOS and macOS. The fact that I can seamlessly send and receive texts, and make and receive calls, from the iPhone, iPad, or Macbook, with everything all synced up perfectly and nearly instantly, is an amazing feature that the competition sorely lacks.

Very much this. In a bygone era, it pained me that syncing information between a pre-smart phone and the Mac was so primitive (more efforts were being put into Windows syncing), then the iPhone came out and the Apple ecosystem gained the upper hand overnight - notes, calendar entries, texts and such just automatically sync everywhere, phone calls ring through to all my devices (well, not the AppleTV, but I wouldn't want that), it all plays well together. The integration is a huge draw, I wanted an iPhone because it would play so well with my Mac (the other big draw is the Mac being far and away the best Unix workstation on the market - one where a Unix-oriented programmer can feel at home, yet it runs leading commercial software).

 

[Karma*Police]

Long-term growth looks good to me:
View attachment 837491

Ah, a shareholder, am I right? That chart shows cumulative growth. That’s like looking at cumulative revenue. Try looking at revenue and units YoY (non-cumulative though this is harder to do for units now that Apple stopped reporting that - and for good reason) and you can clearly see that Apple started plateauing a few years ago.

 

[bushman4]

Growth is slowing and it’s showing

But not to fear once Apple comes out with a foldable iPhone or a 5G iPhone the growth will ratchet up

 

[stylinexpat]

There is just really no reason to upgrade unless you are one of those early adopters for the hell of it or if you are currently using an old device. iOS is pretty much the same on every device nowadays and at the end of the day you just end up going back into the same Apps which are optimized to run just as well on old devices anyway

This is pretty true, all devices can send and receive emails,view photos,check stock prices,reply on forums here ,send and receive messages on pretty much all chat apps,take pictures,take notes,listen to music, etc...

New models still have no external memory card,3.5mm audio port,much larger battery,much louder speakers etc..

 

[s15119]

Especially if you have no regard for high quality sound, and don't mind worrying about batteries, dongles, and the like.

No really. Of course the future in wireless and there are now excellent sounding blue tooth options. Other choices include headphones with a lightning port, of which there are many with great quality sound. Nope. This isn't an issue, and it won't be an issue no matter how hard the naysayers try to make it one. The old 3.5 mm headphone jack is being retired. Ancient tech that's just not needed any longer.
[doublepost=1558121162][/doublepost]

The "Tight integration/sharing data between Apple iOS/macOS/watchOS/tvOS apps." is actually a huge negative for me. When I upgraded laptops, but hadn't copied my music over, Apple's tight integration resulted in all the music being silently deleted from my phone. I simply couldn't believe it.

And the "Tight integration" also makes it excruciatingly difficult to transfer files to/from.

This "Tight integration" is actually one of the things that in a way makes me look forward to when my iPhone 6 dies and I move to an Android (because the new iPhones no longer have a HP jack).
[doublepost=1558062020][/doublepost]

Only in your imagination. It's a big enough war trying to stop extortionately expensive lightning cables from disappearing, the last thing I want is to have the same issue with lighting HP dongles. Not to mention the charging whilst using headphones issue. And don't even get me started on the mess that is bluetooth, so don't even think about going there. I've had this conversation with iPhone 7 and newer users, and they all get in a ball of anger when agreeing that the lack of HP jack is a major pain in the butt. Yes, it damn well is a removal of functionality, and yes I damn well am going to move to Android because of it.

Please do. The android forum is down the hall and to the left. The rest of the world has moved on.

 

[MultiMan]

...

And I look forward to being a part of this brave new world that Apple seeks to usher in. One where Apple is no longer in equilibrium with the other FAANG companies, but has ascended all the way to the top.

Now won't that be a sight to behold?

Famous last words.

I hope we'll all live to see how it goes.

Apple has been going in the wrong direction in my view and due to that I've switched to first a middle range Android (certainly not $50) and then two flagship models. I'm very pleased and as each month passes by without Apple changing gears, I get further and further from wanting anything from the company that blew me away for decades, beginning in 1977.

Android phones have basically exploded in features and innovation the last couple of years. Not acknowledging that due to being in the Apple camp, I think is disingenuous for everyone.

 

[Rocwurst]

Ah, a shareholder, am I right?

No, I wouldn't touch the share market with a barge pole. Too much like gambling for my taste.

That chart shows cumulative growth. That’s like looking at cumulative revenue. Try looking at revenue and units YoY (non-cumulative though this is harder to do for units now that Apple stopped reporting that - and for good reason) and you can clearly see that Apple started plateauing a few years ago.

That graph is not so good at showing the growth in Apple's active installed base.

I posted this other graph from Asymco below earlier, but it better shows the growth in Apple's active installed base of iPhones, active iCloud user base, revenue and a few other metrics.

As I say, growth rates look great to me (particularly compared to Amazon Prime's user base graph at the bottom in light blue. It really gives us great context for just how impressive Apple's growth at such size actually is.

 

[IIGS User]

Growth is slowing and it’s showing

But not to fear once Apple comes out with a foldable iPhone or a 5G iPhone the growth will ratchet up

I have no interest in either right now. I think a folding phone is a gimmick the public will soon forget/tire of. Just opens up too much opportunity for breakage & defects. Ultimately, any folding phone will most likely be a disappointment no matter who produces it. Especially as tablets close in on laptops as a viable alternative.

As for 5G, I don’t see switching phones just to get 5G. Just about everyplace I go has WiFi anymore. 5G coverage will be spotty for years. The phone companies will charge more, but most users won’t benefit. Especially given advances in compression techniques. How much bandwidth does it take to stream high definition video and audio? Sooner or later, the quality tests the limits of human audio & visual acuity. We’re almost there now on a tablet or phone size screen.

The tech has plateaued. Until some genius comes along with the next big innovation (like Jobs did), growth will be a slow roll from this point. Apple is smart to focus on the services side. The hardware side is hitting the proverbial wall....

 

[curtvaughan]

No really. Of course the future in wireless and there are now excellent sounding blue tooth options. Other choices include headphones with a lightning port, of which there are many with great quality sound. Nope. This isn't an issue, and it won't be an issue no matter how hard the naysayers try to make it one. The old 3.5 mm headphone jack is being retired. Ancient tech that's just not needed any longer.
[doublepost=1558121162][/doublepost]

Please do. The android forum is down the hall and to the left. The rest of the world has moved on.

Before pronouncing 3.5 jacks as ancient and no longer needed, will you PLEASE actually do a little research on sound / recording reproduction? Take your Apple propaganda blinders off long enough to actually see how wireless/bluetooth, dongles, and so forth, do NOT arise to the sound quality available through phone jacks interfacing to high quality speaker systems. If you don't prioritize sound, jackless devices are of course fine for you - you can put relatively low quality earbuds into your ear, work out at the gym, drive down the highway, ride a bike and get medium quality sound aimed into your ear. But please don't tell sound lovers, high quality music lovers, that their desire for the highest quality sound is void due to "ancient tech." It's "ancient" because it is tried and true, throughout the professional recording industry. Just stop, take a breath, and plug in your earbuds. Leave the sound enthusiasts alone.

 

[sideshowuniqueuser]

No really. Of course the future in wireless and there are now excellent sounding blue tooth options. Other choices include headphones with a lightning port, of which there are many with great quality sound. Nope. This isn't an issue, and it won't be an issue no matter how hard the naysayers try to make it one. The old 3.5 mm headphone jack is being retired. Ancient tech that's just not needed any longer.
[doublepost=1558121162][/doublepost]

Please do. The android forum is down the hall and to the left. The rest of the world has moved on.

Yeah nah, mate, I'm here because I love Apple products, well, especially the ones that Steve Jobs had a hand in. Frustratingly, the quality and design has gone massively downhill in the last few years. Which is why this forum is full of negativity now. So many Apple users that are frustrated with the direction Cook is taking Apple.

 

[s15119]

Before pronouncing 3.5 jacks as ancient and no longer needed, will you PLEASE actually do a little research on sound / recording reproduction? Take your Apple propaganda blinders off long enough to actually see how wireless/bluetooth, dongles, and so forth, do NOT arise to the sound quality available through phone jacks interfacing to high quality speaker systems. If you don't prioritize sound, jackless devices are of course fine for you - you can put relatively low quality earbuds into your ear, work out at the gym, drive down the highway, ride a bike and get medium quality sound aimed into your ear. But please don't tell sound lovers, high quality music lovers, that their desire for the highest quality sound is void due to "ancient tech." It's "ancient" because it is tried and true, throughout the professional recording industry. Just stop, take a breath, and plug in your earbuds. Leave the sound enthusiasts alone.

Do whatever you like. But you'll never see another iPhone with that plug. For the vast majority of phone users it's not needed at all. I have a pretty high quality sound system and some very sweet speakers. I don't plug my iPhone into them

 

[vonj]

Wow because it’s the same boring phone from 2 years with no Major Upgrade Future & this year is going to be the same design. Redesign the damn phone & Add somthing new to it then sales will soar

 

[Abazigal]

Wow because it’s the same boring phone from 2 years with no Major Upgrade Future & this year is going to be the same design. Redesign the damn phone & Add somthing new to it then sales will soar

If people are no longer upgrading as often as they need to, then maybe we don’t really need a radical redesign every year or every other year. Seems like Apple would be fine iterating on the same design for 4-5 years at a time, like what they did with the iPhone 6.

 

[JoeCassara]

Here’s an interesting perspective from The Verge:

https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/17/18629003/us-phone-upgrades-apple-samsung-market

 

[ateslik]

The "Tight integration/sharing data between Apple iOS/macOS/watchOS/tvOS apps." is actually a huge negative for me. When I upgraded laptops, but hadn't copied my music over, Apple's tight integration resulted in all the music being silently deleted from my phone. I simply couldn't believe it.

And the "Tight integration" also makes it excruciatingly difficult to transfer files to/from.

This "Tight integration" is actually one of the things that in a way makes me look forward to when my iPhone 6 dies and I move to an Android (because the new iPhones no longer have a HP jack).
[doublepost=1558062020][/doublepost]

Only in your imagination. It's a big enough war trying to stop extortionately expensive lightning cables from disappearing, the last thing I want is to have the same issue with lighting HP dongles. Not to mention the charging whilst using headphones issue. And don't even get me started on the mess that is bluetooth, so don't even think about going there. I've had this conversation with iPhone 7 and newer users, and they all get in a ball of anger when agreeing that the lack of HP jack is a major pain in the butt. Yes, it damn well is a removal of functionality, and yes I damn well am going to move to Android because of it.

So are you saying you prefer the headphone jack?

 

[Bawstun]

With their disastrous product line and supply chain CEO, the shareholders should honestly be satisfied with any growth at all. I was expecting losses.
[doublepost=1558189938][/doublepost]

Considering how dominant the iPhone is, it’s not really a surprise the market is saturated. Also, It’s not just the iPhone, it’s smart phones in general that have been on the decline. The inflation with smart phones in general has pushed the consumer to keep their devices longer, a smart phone is not something that _needs_ to be upgraded every year.

This is simply not true. People are LEAVING Apple, not not upgrading.

A few more years of sales and returns and the true picture will come into view. It’s sad that it will take “proof” before anyone can see where a lack of innovation and quality is taking Apple. Guess we’ve gotta get there. Money ruins everything.

 

[rmsanger]

At a certain point in a product’s life-cycle you reach maximum market penetration and adoption... We are near that point.