Apple's Unusual Headset Design Has Led to Unprecedented Production Challenges

[NT1440]

Apple never makes markets. They enter markets that already exist. Just another reason this product is barreling towards a fail.

They set the standard for what a market is going to be after other companies fail to get the UX right.

Whatever is launching is going to set the stage for what AR will be, the same way that the smartphone market shifted gears entirely upon the release of the iPhone, and the iPad completely changed what the tablet market was.

This headset is laying the groundwork for what will be a mainstream market (read, not Tech/gaming nerds on forums) in just a few years.

This week, the headset.

3/4 years, the smart glasses explosion.

I have a lot of qualms about what true AR glasses will eventually do to society, but we’re in the same place now for this tech that we were the week before the original iPhone was released. Apple will lead the way in a fashion that normal people actually care about in a couple years, and the forum dwellers will spend the next 5 years talking about how the Quest/Vive/PSwhatever/etc are the true champions.

I wouldn’t call the AR space today a real market. Toys that your uncle wears once at Christmas for a “gee whiz” moment and never again is not a long term market base.

You may love it, or hate it, but Apple is going to be the company that makes the normies care about this space.

@klasma feel free to bookmark this post and check in again in 3 years and tell me I’m wrong 🤷‍♂️

 

[jouster]

Flop is my bet but I wish it well. I just don’t think anyone wants the metaverse.

I think there's an appetite for it, just not for the form factor of devices currently able to deliver it.

 

[t0rqx]

Here is what we know so far:

1. It's difficult to manufacture
2. Software has been difficult to tailor for it
3. Many executives seem to doubt market penetration and success
4. Potential competitors have struggled in the market to grow
5. It will be prohibitively expensive, putting it outside of average consumer affordability
6. Not very portable, making it useless in a public use case outside of the home
7. Most software made for the device category has been video gaming or severely niche industries requiring post-graduate education and government licensing.

So, how is this the next iPhone?

Do not forget it burns the retina to ashes with it's multiple MicroLED 5000 nits screens.

 

[klasma]

What if this Apple AR/VR headset ends up like AirPower?

Then we’ll get MagVR two years later.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

While we're worrying about this-n-that, let's hope a giant asteroid the size of Jupiter doesn't crash into planet Earth, extinguishing all life for millions of years.

AGW + AI will extinguish most human life; no asteroid necessary.

Note that both the AI and the AGW are provided by the humans. Go figure.

 

[sw1tcher]

No one cared about a PC, cellphone, TV, or game console for the first decade those were on the market.

Home PCs from every company were seen as useless throughout the 1970s and 1980s. This is historical fact and documented very well.

Were you alive during the '70s and '80s? I was and I remember things quite differently than you do. A lot of people cared for the home PC and gaming console.

Our first home PC was the Apple IIe and the first game console was Atari 2600, and interest in those devices was strong during that period. Every kid on just my street alone that I knew and played with (4 of them) had an Atari 2600. We'd borrow each others games all the time.

If home PCs were seen as useless during the '70s and '80s then why did so many companies rush to enter the market with their version of the Home PC? I was at the local Radio Shack at least once a month as a kid (free AA battery 🤣 ) and there were always people looking at/playing with the PCs they had and buying something for the one they had back at home. My friends at school and I swapped 5.25 inch floppy disks with pirated games for the Apple IIe constantly (Joust, Spy Hunter, Dig Dug, Pac Man, Summer Games, Winter Games, Lode Runner, Karateka, Choplifter,...).

 

[Choco Taco]

20 million Quest devices alone in the wild - the market is plenty big. Your insistence on this being a nonexistent market for toys is flat out wrong. Have some imagination.

It's not that there isn't a market to tap into. It's that this is rumored to cost 5-6 times as much as what's currently available.

 

[Stevenyo]

Can't be more challenging than producing these designs with a straight face.View attachment 2210149View attachment 2210151

damn, i hadn't seen some of these before. i think AR/MR is the future, but before we get there re-releasing these designs would be Apple's most successful product in decades! Seriously, I love them and my exisitng rainbow apple gear is getting pretty worn out at this point

 

[frifra]

Most complicated?

I beg to differ.


AirPower. - So challenging they couldn’t even deliver.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

Ok, so I have to wait 10 years for it to be portable?

Easy to manufacture?

Cheaper?

Have a use that my phone or laptop can't already do much better?

Not have to get a MD or get licensed by the state so that I might use it in my job?

Be portable without cables or external battery packs?

Have a use outside of gaming?

You do not have to wait for anything. Just keep on doing whatever. Those of us who care about an interesting new device type can watch enthusiastically and maybe even invest in experimenting with expensive v1.

P.S. Those folks who see no use outside of gaming simply, dramatically lack vison.

 

[robbietop]

You do not have to wait for anything. Just keep on doing whatever. Those of us who care about an interesting new device type can watch enthusiastically and maybe even invest in experimenting with expensive v1.

P.S. Those folks who see no use outside of gaming simply, dramatically lack vison.

Ok, then. But don't come begging us to join y'all when it flops and goes nowhere and we're making fun of you for looking like a dork.

 

[robbietop]

Do not forget it burns the retina to ashes with it's multiple MicroLED 5000 nits screens.

And a bunch of technical specifications is going to get to me care how?

What does it do?

I bought a complicated and cool cat scratching post, house, etc all in one and the cat still sleeps in the box it came in

 

[Mescagnus]

And suddenly the $3000 price tag doesn't seem at all unreasonable. I'm genuinely excited to see the headset next week!

 

[robbietop]

Meanwhile there are millions paying almost $3K one time for a Peloton bike to then stare at a relatively small screen to simulate riding that bike all around the world. Imagine the Peloton bike with the locations wrapped all around the rider. Look left, look right, look up or down as if you are doing that exercise "there."

While that may not be you, there are MILLIONS paying for that kind of exercise right now. This could take that to a much more realistic level. And Apple could take a bite of that slice of that market by "not being first but doing it best" as just ONE application of Googles. Or the Pelotons in that space evolve their services to add VR experiences and Apple simply enjoys a 30% cut of those subscriptions seeking more immersion than they can get staring at a flat 2D screen mounted on the front of the bike.

This product will NOT be for everyone. Everyone doesn't have iPhone... or a TV... or a couch. It only needs to find a big enough audience to make it another good product from Apple.

I don't own an iPhone. Apple doesn't exactly suffer from me doing iPhone-like activities on iPad mini with buds for calls. They don't need people who see absolutely nothing in this product to be convinced to buy it. They only need some of those who are able to see something here to buy.

That's a bike. It provides exercise, health tracking, and training lessons from highly regarded professionals to help you get into shape.

The helmet is for video games and "external monitor". As if I couldn't just pay $269.99 and get a 1080P HP 24" monitor that does the same thing.

 

[roar08]

Here is what we know so far:

1. It's difficult to manufacture
2. Software has been difficult to tailor for it
3. Many executives seem to doubt market penetration and success
4. Potential competitors have struggled in the market to grow
5. It will be prohibitively expensive, putting it outside of average consumer affordability
6. Not very portable, making it useless in a public use case outside of the home
7. Most software made for the device category has been video gaming or severely niche industries requiring post-graduate education and government licensing.

So, how is this the next iPhone?

I totally get these arguments, and I'm not sure I disagree. However, most of these arguments were also made about the first iPhone (which I was also somewhat skeptical about). So ... we will see.

 

[robbietop]

I can make lists too 😎 I’ll keep mine short

1. several of these things were true for the original iPhone (competitors struggling with market penetration [beyond a specific market, can’t imagine many 13 year olds had BlackBerrys/Treos the way they have iPhones now], absurdly high price [anyone else remember when they gave original buyers $200 back?], everyone doubting market penetration and success [same with pretty much every new product category since the iPod)
2. no one is expecting this to be the next iPhone at this point, it’ll likely be more like the AW/AirPods, an iterative product that gets better and sees more adoption with time

ratio me if you want, I don’t care, I’ve been waiting two years to see this and I’m just excited to get it over and done with at this point

1. List AGAIN! The iPhone makes phone calls, browses the Internet, watches videos, listens to music, gets me a Uber, gets food delivered, and fits in my pocket.
2. And it won't be as popular as AW or AP. It's a helmet. It's hard for geeks and nerds to understand this, but not everyone wanted 3DTVs but every nerd was like "But the 1550 Mits and #DHDR4kBloom with Leica Glass is just so amazing you'll love it!" Got returned in a week.
3. The PS3 is from a tech perspective superior to the Xbox 360, and yet didn't actually pull ahead in sales until the very end of the generation. Just because it has a bunch of cool tech doesn't mean everyone wants it. If it can play Call of Duty better than on a large big screen TV, it might sell.

Technical specifications do not matter to 99.9% of the general public. So, the product has to do something better than the other thing that already does the thing.

Like Steve said, "The iPad has to be better at web browsing than the iPhone and Laptop, otherwise it has no reason to exist."

 

[dugbug]

That's a bike. It provides exercise, health tracking, and training lessons from highly regarded professionals to help you get into shape.

The helmet is for video games and "external monitor". As if I couldn't just pay $269.99 and get a 1080P HP 24" monitor that does the same thing.

I dunno, have you ever strapped a 24" monitor to a helmet?

 

[robbietop]

I didn't say that. Ming Chi does add credibility to his guesses by having the relationship with the supply chain players. That's probably why he- unlike you or me- gets PAID for offering Apple insights.

What I did say is that while he and Gurman can get their prognostications right, they also get some wrong. Neither have flawless track records.

And your list was only a list of negatives, ignoring anything that they they have offered as positives about Goggles. That shows your own bias on this topic, reinforced by cherry picking only what supports that bias from their many guesses, not all of which are the doom & gloom implied by your list.

I'll fully grant you that even at 6+ years of development without money or talent limitations like many startups, that Apple could roll out one pile of _____ in this thing. But that seems unlikely. When was the last time Apple spent 6+ years developing anything only to roll out a complete dog?

So while I can appreciate you imagining something towards the worst and being drawn only to supporting "facts" in line with your view, another person could do the opposite: imagine a very positive new Apple product and then only notice very positive supporting facts from those same players and others. And they would be no more wrong or right than you... until we all see what is actually is... what it actually can do... how much it actually costs, etc.

Presumably next week, most of the guessing, imagination, speculation, etc evaporates and we can actually see a brand new product creation from Apple. I suspect many views about this thing will magically transform once reality replaces rampant speculation. Whether that's towards the positive or negative is to be determined.

Dude, if it doesn't get announced, I will start listening to you more.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

That's a bike. It provides exercise, health tracking, and training lessons from highly regarded professionals to help you get into shape.

The helmet is for video games and "external monitor". As if I couldn't just pay $269.99 and get a 1080P HP 24" monitor that does the same thing.

That's your narrow vision opinion of what this is. You don't know. You are guessing as we all are at what this can be.

And the bike example shows that consumers will spend towards $3K ONE time for a one-use device and then more on top of that for ongoing service to use it in that one way... limited relative to Goggles by presenting that VR on an iPad-like 2D screen. I bet that crowd would love to feel much more like they are on those trails... that when they look left, right, up, down or back, the illusion of actually riding "there" is much more real than looking though a tiny little "window" into those scenes. Apple wouldn't need very many of just that one segment of people to buy this to exceed rumored goals of number of units they hope to sell in year 1.

Obviously, you have no interest in this product. Enjoy your TV, couch and 1080p HP monitor.

Or if you are looking to be convinced why you should be at least interested, the first step would be to step away from the extremist (negative) bar and get yourself more to a "think different" middle... where you are able to see and consider the potential positives as easily as you have the negatives.

If you are already certain this is not for you, no problem: don't buy it, don't consider it, don't look at it. Enjoy the tech you already have that you think does anything and everything Goggles can do well enough for you. Congratulations. You don't have to spend a nickel.

Others are open to possibilities beyond what you are choosing to even entertain. Maybe there's something in this for those OTHER people.

I own lots of Apple stuff, but I don't own everything Apple makes. Just because I don't see a need to own everything they make doesn't mean the stuff I personally do NOT choose to own has no merit, no purpose, no fit for anyone else. To someone else, that last thing I would consider buying might be the first thing they buy. And that's how it should be.

 

[Choco Taco]

The helmet is for video games and "external monitor". As if I couldn't just pay $269.99 and get a 1080P HP 24" monitor that does the same thing.

That's literally not what this is.

 

[aohus]

Not very portable, making it useless in a public use case outside of the home

Its not meant to be used outside the home. it will be primarily used in an indoor setting. Apple glasses slated for 2026/2027 will probably be meant for outdoor usage.

 

[DarthBuzzard]

Were you alive during the '70s and '80s? I was and I remember things quite differently than you do. A lot of people cared for the home PC and gaming console.

Our first home PC was the Apple IIe and the first game console was Atari 2600, and interest in those devices was strong during that period. Every kid on just my street alone that I knew and played with (4 of them) had an Atari 2600. We'd borrow each others games all the time.

If home PCs were seen as useless during the '70s and '80s then why did so many companies rush to enter the market with their version of the Home PC? I was at the local Radio Shack at least once a month as a kid (free AA battery 🤣 ) and there were always people looking at/playing with the PCs they had and buying something for the one they had back at home. My friends at school and I swapped 5.25 inch floppy disks with pirated games for the Apple IIe constantly (Joust, Spy Hunter, Dig Dug, Pac Man, Summer Games, Winter Games, Lode Runner, Karateka, Choplifter,...).

Anecdotal evidence doesn't really mean much. I could say that everyone in my street knows about and plays with their Quest 2 and it wouldn't be any less true than your statement. PCs and consoles back then were still niche regardless of how many people you knew that owned one. Same for VR today. Did you know that Quest 2 has at least the same amount of sales/revenue as Atari 2600 and Commodore 64, even adjusted for inflation and population growth?

Therefore, if PCs were mainstream back then, then VR is mainstream today. Obviously that can't be the case, so we just consider them both niche.

Companies rushed into the market because typically, they are able to see further beyond what the average person can.

 

[deevey]

Is there even a big enough market for this? Seems like they're trying to be too ambitious for a niche market. A waste of time if you ask me.

So was the iPhone..

"That is the most expensive phone in the world. And it doesn't appeal to business customers because it doesn't have a keyboard. Which makes it not a very good email machine".

- Steve Ballmer 2007

I cannot see Apple releasing a product like this without knowing exactly who this is for, what it's use case is going to be and who is most likely going to be on-board to develop apps for it.

Crazy expensive, but this might just be the next evolutionary stepping stone in computing. I don't believe they would be releasing it if they were unsure that "it's ready".

 

[wilhoitm]

I'm buying Apple's AR/VR Headset Day 1!

 

[Rogifan]

The thin profile requires users who wear glasses to buy prescription lenses that magnetically clip into the headset.

So if wear glasses you’ll need to buy special glasses just to work with this device? So you have to buy another product just so it works with this product? thats a hard pass…

How do other VR headsets work for people who wear prescription glasses?