At 32 GB RAM minimum, that won’t happen within the next several years if ever.
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Apple's Upcoming M2 Pro Chip for High-End MacBook Pro and Mac Mini Will Reportedly Be 3nm
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I think there was an article about TSMC about this very thing or a roadmap.[...]
You answered your own question.
TSMC is not ready to produce A16 and the base M2s on 3nm so Apple is "stuck" keeping them on 5nm.
Since the next Pro, Max and Ultra SoCs will almost certainly be on the same design generation as M2 (even if made on a smaller process node), it makes sense for Apple to market them under the same family name and call them M2 Pro, M2 Max and M2 Ultra.
The only people who would even know the process node the M2 Pro are made on would be the same people who have the technical background to understand why it is the case.
The general public is going to have no clue what process node M2 Pro is on, much less the design generation specifics (Avalanche, Blizzard, N15, G15, etc.). All they will know - and care - is that M2 Pro is newer and faster than M1 Pro.
Yeah, TSMC press releases have touted N3 volume production in 2022 but with the caveat being customers wouldn't actually get chips in volume until 2023. And usually there is at least several month delay between reception of chips and actual Macs being sold, for obvious reasons. So, the earliest possible N3 Macs would be spring 2023, but it could be later than that too, as press release "volume production" often is not the same thing as Apple-level volume production. Similarly, if the Macs were made on the N4P process, they wouldn't be until sometime in 2023 either.
From what I gather, the only realistic options for actual late 2022 Macs would be N5P or N4, but those could also be 2023 depending on what makes sense for Apple.
IOW, there is essentially zero possibility we will see N4P or N3 products in 2022. They would have to be 2023 or later. However, a release in 2023 doesn't guarantee N4P or N3 either. Apple could use N5P or else N4 for such products if they chose to do so.
tl;dr:
If Apple releases new Macs in 2022, they will be N5P or possibly N4.
If Apple releases new Macs in 2023, they could be N5P, N4, N3, or N4P.
Downgrade gate.
I can't imagine why apple is using slower SSD but they are
Base 13-Inch MacBook Pro With M2 Chip Has Significantly Slower SSD Speeds
Following the launch of Apple's new 13-inch MacBook Pro with the M2 chip, it has been discovered that the $1,299 base model with 256GB of...
www.macrumors.com
Volume production is just plain speak for right now yields of N3 chips as too low for it to be viable in fulfillment and profits.
My question would then be, will Apple not be revving those cores? Especially when Avalanche+1 is around the corner, and Avalanche+2 will also be in '23?
It was Mark Gurman that leaked the Jade C-Chop, Jade C-Die, Jade 2C-Die roadmap for the M1 Pro / Max / Ultra in May 2021. Anyone else was just repeating his info.
That was well before the "M1 Max", "M1 Ultra" or "Mac Studio" products or names were known in any way, so any explanation of how the M1 Ultra in the Mac Studio worked definitely originated from Gurman's "Jade 2C-Die" leak, and subsequent reports. Credit where credit is due.
Still waiting on the Jade 4C-Die Mac Pro!
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In past articles this was forecasted for 2023. This rumor might have popped up as a response to this weeks Samsung news.
Samsung Rumored to Begin 3nm Mass Production Next Week - ExtremeTech
Samsung may announce the first shipments of its 3nm FETs this week, beating TSMC to the punch by several months.
www.extremetech.com
Samsung first revealed its 3nm plans way back in 2019 when it said it was in the Alpha stage. The company announced it had chosen Nanosheets as its preferred design. This is one of the two GAA designs that are possible; the other is Nanowires. Samsung’s design is called MBCFET, which stands for Multi-Bridge Channel Field Effect Transistor. Interestingly, when it announced its plans it trumpeted a 35 percent boost in performance. However, the latest reporting has lowered that number by five percent. Still, this reporting it not an official Samsung announcement, so that might change if and when Samsung officially announces it.
One thing to note here is just because Samsung is the first foundry to reach HVM at 3nm doesn’t mean it necessarily has a leg up on its competition. As we reported previously on an article about TSMC, some analysts believe customers might not want to be first in line for a brand new, radical change such as GAA transistors. Instead, they might be more inclined to stick with “old” 3nm technology from TSMC, which is sticking with FinFet for its 3nm process.
TSMC Says it Will Move to Nanosheet Transistors at 2nm
TSMC's 3nm process will be its last to use FinFET transistors. After that it will be moving to a gate-all-around nanosheet at 2nm.
One thing to keep in mind when comparing TSMC and Intel is that the two companies have sometimes defined “volume production” a bit differently. Historically, Intel announced volume production a relatively short time before it launched products into the retail market. Because TSMC sells products to customers that then perform their own device integration, it can take longer for the company to move from volume production to commercially available products. There’s likely to be some slippage between the timelines companies are announcing today and what they actually ship.
The SSD chip itself is identical.Downgrade gate.
I can't imagine why apple is using slower SSD but they are
Base 13-Inch MacBook Pro With M2 Chip Has Significantly Slower SSD Speeds
Following the launch of Apple's new 13-inch MacBook Pro with the M2 chip, it has been discovered that the $1,299 base model with 256GB of...
On the M1 and M2 MacBook Pro, there are two SSD chip "slots"
On the M1 MBP, Apple chose to populate both slots with two 128GB SSDs to create the base 256GB model.
On the M2 MBP, Apple decided to leave one slot empty, filling the other slot with a single 256GB SSD.
SSD chips can work together, combining the bandwidth of two SSD chips to improve transfer speeds.
This is because there are metal channels inside of the logic board going from those SSD module slots to the chip itself. More channels = more bandwidth = faster transfer rates.
All we can do is guess. My guess is a mixture of supply constraints and cost cutting.Downgrade gate.
I can't imagine why apple is using slower SSD but they are
Base 13-Inch MacBook Pro With M2 Chip Has Significantly Slower SSD Speeds
Following the launch of Apple's new 13-inch MacBook Pro with the M2 chip, it has been discovered that the $1,299 base model with 256GB of...
I doubt Apple would pull this or a similar hardware downgrade on their “real” Pro machines, but who knows. Crazier things have happened.
The "real" Pro machines don't have the 256 GB configuration. It's just a matter of 256 GB x 1 vs 128 GB x 2. The latter is much faster, even with the exact same tier of chips.
Nah, you can order it in October. You just won't actually get it until March 2023.
Since it has been confirmed that the 512GB models have two 256GB SSD chips and are delivering the expected high performance, the two most-likely options are:
- Apple cannot get 128GB SSDs in sufficient quantity so they are using one 256GB SSD because they can get supply of those (you can see the empty second SSD location on the systemboard pictures);
- Apple can get 128GB SSDs, but their purchase volume on 256GB SSDs means they are similar in price or cheaper than 2x128GB so they are using a single 256GB SSD to save money.
Doesn't this seem a little confusing for the customer?
Sounds like M2 was really M1.5, and the M2 Pro is the "real" M2.
Sounds like M2 was really M1.5, and the M2 Pro is the "real" M2.
I know that, I have a 14”.
I meant Apple wouldn’t downgrade the SSD like OP’s example or display support etc. I just don’t think Apple would release M2 14 and 16” MBPs with lesser hardware or less features, like that crap they pulled with the 13” one.
I presume you are referring to the new SoC cores coming with the A16 for the iPhone 14 Pro line? If so, those will likely form the foundation for the M3 SoC and will not be used in an M2-family model.
If true, the current M2, might best be considered an M1X. Kuo reported that the new Air would be featuring an M1, perhaps Apple decided that it was a better strategy to call it M2, and then in the late fall release the “enhanced” 3nm M2.
It would be more confusing to the customer if the higher-end SoCs were not labled M2 Pro, M2 Max and M2 Ultra.
M2 is exactly what those of us who have been following the SoC's development expected. The only thing that might be considered different is many thought it would be fabricated on a 3nm process as opposed to the 5nm process it is using (at least at launch - Apple could easily move later M2 production to 3nm, as well).
This could be the start of a release model where the regular version is tech wise one step behind the pro versions. So next up 3 nm M2 PRO - MAX and ULTRA. Then next summer optimised 3 nm M3. Followed by 2 nm M3 PRO - MAX and ULTRA in the fall or winter. Summer of 2024 optimised 2 nm M4. Followed by etcetera.
That way the performance of the PRO line really differentiates from the ’consumer’ line of processors. And in the meanwhile the power consumption of one generation of processors between ’consumer’ and PRO will be closer to each other.
Thirdly the PRO features (neural engine, video-encoder/decoder this year, memory-bandwidth, etc.) can be more or less copied to next years ‘consumer’ chip while staying on the same chip-tech.
This also makes sense when thinking about the yield of new lower nm chip-tech and the number of products sold. The PRO demand will probably be lower than that of the consumer level products. So after a year of producing PRO level chips on 3 nm it will be easier to produce big quantities of 3 nm consumer chips for an even lower price.
The average Joe sees a higher version number, spec bumbs and maybe even some new features, which prior to this ’new’ release only where available in the much pricier PRO line.
That way the performance of the PRO line really differentiates from the ’consumer’ line of processors. And in the meanwhile the power consumption of one generation of processors between ’consumer’ and PRO will be closer to each other.
Thirdly the PRO features (neural engine, video-encoder/decoder this year, memory-bandwidth, etc.) can be more or less copied to next years ‘consumer’ chip while staying on the same chip-tech.
This also makes sense when thinking about the yield of new lower nm chip-tech and the number of products sold. The PRO demand will probably be lower than that of the consumer level products. So after a year of producing PRO level chips on 3 nm it will be easier to produce big quantities of 3 nm consumer chips for an even lower price.
The average Joe sees a higher version number, spec bumbs and maybe even some new features, which prior to this ’new’ release only where available in the much pricier PRO line.
At the end of the day M2 is just a marketing name.
The M2 is on an improved process node and is based on the A15 cores. The M1 was based on A14 cores. They are different chips, incremental upgrade or not. It’s only an M1.5 or whatever to those who expected a performance bump a la Intel-> AS.