Apple's Upcoming M2 Pro Chip for High-End MacBook Pro and Mac Mini Will Reportedly Be 3nm

[deconstruct60]

If M2 Pro is coming to Mac mini next year perhaps it'll be binned versions due to as yet unknown yield rates for M2 Pro?

Ordering up TSMC N3 in 2023 isn't a "bold move". It was/is suppose to start shipping in late 2022. So if ordering up larger quantities in 2023 there shouldn't be a huge expectation was going to have to go through triple backflips on binning to get yields.

If the Mini with the M2 Pro and the Mini with plain M2 are two different enclosures then Apple is highly free to ship those two at different times. I'm not sure there is good reason for Apple to try to keep those in the same enclosure/chassis.

Apple doesn't have to start wafers if TSMC isn't at HVM. TSMC can't make Apple buy high "at risk" wafers if Apple didn't sign up for "at risk" wafers.


But once TSMC does get to the start of HVM it isn't like finished dies that are completely packaged up are going to quickly pop out like microwave popcorn out the other end of the production pipeline. If HVM isn't ready until November then they don't have to start the product M2 Pro product run until November. Even more so if the plain M2 is on N5P and is available for the other enclosure. The general Mini classification can move forward. Just like it already did with the M1 well over a year ago.

The Mini M2 Pro will be later arriving that many folks want but Apple doesn't have to "blow up " wafers to get it out the door quicker.


Much of the drama on yields are because many folks read 2H22 as "gotta be August-September or even as July 15". It isn't going to be that. TSMC has essentially said they aren't going to miss starting (not end product; just starting production pipeline) HVM inside of that large window. The pipeline takes weeks to complete. N3 process pipeline isn't fastest. If they start late enough, then the bulk of usable product could only show up in 2023. In that case , technically they started on time, but it will not be 2022 end product.

Apple ( and Intel and others) should have TSMC N3 dies back from the fabs now on a low volume , 'at risk' status. The more TSMC customers iterate on these early testing products then better the yields go toward "high volume manufacturing" benchmark. It is just not usually fast going this time compared to N7 -> N6/N5 transitions.

That's my first take on the situation as minimum package will surely be 16Gb with 512Gb storage - making a high end Mini easily approach $1499.

start at $1,499. The one that many will want will likely be higher priced than that.

And the existing case would then surely be the shoo-in to help power and cool the arrangement while keeping costs down.

It is overkill for the M2, but for the M2 Pro it is a good fit. Apple could to do a new one for the lower end so that better hit that different customer segment.

 

[rp2011]

The current M2 is running hot and without much real improvement.It seems to be a huge fail at this point. It makes sense for Apple to not continue further with the current M2 at 5nm.

 

[CarAnalogy]

Yeah I don’t know about that, but it would be cool.
But if it is 3nm I Seriously wouldn’t expect it to release as soon as October.
More like March/June 2023

I hope they take their time, I just got my 14” M1 Pro not long ago, don’t want it to get shown up already.

 

[Makanmata]

TSMC has convinced everybody - or at least computer journalists - that the only thing that matters about your semiconductor is the size of the fabrication process with which it was made. It doesn't work quite like that though.

 

[EugW]

Much of the drama on yields are because many folks read 2H22 as "gotta be August-September or even as July 15". It isn't going to be that. TSMC has essentially said they aren't going to miss starting (not end product; just starting production pipeline) HVM inside of that large window. The pipeline takes weeks to complete. N3 process pipeline isn't fastest. If they start late enough, then the bulk of usable product could only show up in 2023. In that case , technically they started on time, but it will not be 2022 end product.

TSMC has already indicated that actual volume chip delivery won't be until 2023.

 

[ekwipt]

It makes even more sense when you factor in the MacPro being announced/released by years end. It will be a good differentiator between the 5nm M2s

 

[binarysmurf]

Still not convinced that M2 Pro Mac Mini (sounds ridiculous lol) is anything more than reading soggy tea leaves.

Why do people keep repeating this?

1) Apple need to remove the remaining 'high-end' Intel mini from the product line to complete the AS transition.
2) There is room in terms of both price and capability for a system that fits between a base M1 Mini and a Mac Studio.

There have been repeated rumours that this 'Pro' mini exists, plus it makes actual sense.

 

[tobybrut]

I'm dubious. I'm a software engineer and not a hardware engineer, but it seems it would be very difficult to take the same cores and reduce their trace widths and have them function properly. While the rest of the chip may be different, the CPU, GPU cores and NE would be the same. It simply doesn't make sense to me, but a hardware engineer would have better authority on this. To me, they'd no longer be the same cores as the M2.

 

[EugW]

I'm dubious. I'm a software engineer and not a hardware engineer, but it seems it would be very difficult to take the same cores and reduce their trace widths and have them function properly. While the rest of the chip may be different, the CPU, GPU cores and NE would be the same. It simply doesn't make sense to me, but a hardware engineer would have better authority on this. To me, they'd no longer be the same cores as the M2.

I'm also no hardware engineer, but I can tell you that Apple has actually done this before with A series chips, having the exact same chip on two different process generations.

That said, I'm not buying the rumour either that M2 Pro/Max is getting N3. And if it does happen, it would mean it would be well into 2023 before those Macs would actually ship.

 

[binarysmurf]

Where is the Mac Pro?

John Ternan said there was "one more" M1 Mac coming at the Mac Studio announcement. That will be the Mac Pro, and I would suggest the Mac Pro will be announced around October/November so that Apple can stick to its claim of transitioning all Macs to Apple Silicon in 2 years. The only fly in that ointment is the remaining Intel Mac mini. That will (in my opinion) either be quietly dropped or be replaced with (hopefully) an M2 Pro variant.

 

[jav6454]

John Ternan said there was "one more" M1 Mac coming at the Mac Studio announcement. That will be the Mac Pro, and I would suggest the Mac Pro will be announced around October/November so that Apple can stick to its claim of transitioning all Macs to Apple Silicon in 2 years. The only fly in that ointment is the remaining Intel Mac mini. That will (in my opinion) either be quietly dropped or be replaced with (hopefully) an M2 Pro variant.

I believe that was corrected in WWDC when they mentioned the Mac Pro by name as the last Mac to be transitioned and not necessarily to the M1 line.

 

[binarysmurf]

Seeing as has how Apple has dorked me over by effectively end of lifing devices like my 2018 iPad Pro, which can’t run Stage Manager, I’m in no rush to buy anything with an M2 chip — pro extreme or otherwise. I have no confidence that chips even a year or two old will be able (read allowed) to run newer system software processes or services. Can’t wait to see what my M1 Mac mini won’t be allowed to do.

Given that your 2018 iPad Pro can still run iPadOS 16, I can't see how your device is being EOL'd. I understand the frustration that you won't be able to use a major feature of the new OS, but it's still a more than capable tablet and iPadOS 16 will still be an excellent upgrade.

 

[binarysmurf]

I believe that was corrected in WWDC when they mentioned the Mac Pro by name as the last Mac to be transitioned and not necessarily to the M1 line.

Thanks for the correction. I must look into this.

 

[binarysmurf]

Yes. It does. I wrote ‘effectively end-of-life.’ Apple is no longer supporting my device with its current services. Their solution: buy a new one. Hence, for me and anyone else wishing current support, end of life.

Your current device will run iPadOS 16, so it's by definition still being supported. It just can't run one of the major new features for technical reasons.

 

[tobybrut]

John Ternan said there was "one more" M1 Mac coming at the Mac Studio announcement. That will be the Mac Pro, and I would suggest the Mac Pro will be announced around October/November so that Apple can stick to its claim of transitioning all Macs to Apple Silicon in 2 years. The only fly in that ointment is the remaining Intel Mac mini. That will (in my opinion) either be quietly dropped or be replaced with (hopefully) an M2 Pro variant.

An M2 Pro Mac mini would be something I'd be seriously looking at. An M2 mini, not so much. Your timeline on the Mac Pro sounds just about right. Apple doesn't like to introduce more than one re-designed product at a time, which was why the mini wasn't introduced alongside the Air and the 13" MBP. The mini will get its redesign alongside probably a spec-bumped M2 iMac in October (Sept is iPhone/iPad month) while the Mac Pro will get its limelight in November alongside spec-bumped M2 Pro/Max MBP's. IMO, of course. By October that Intel Mac mini will be gone... finally.

 

[binarysmurf]

.. while the Mac Pro will get its limelight in November alongside spec-bumped M2 Pro/Max MBP's. IMO, of course. By October that Intel Mac mini will be gone... finally.

Hopefully, this will come to pass. From this side of the world (Australia) the base M1 Mini is $AU1100 and the base Mac Studio starts at $AU3100... An M2 Pro Mini will hopefully slot in ~$AU2000 and would suit my use case perfectly (more CPU/GPU cores and 32GB RAM without going all the way to a Max system). By October/November I should have the 💰🙂.

 

[tobybrut]

Seeing as has how Apple has dorked me over by effectively end of lifing devices like my 2018 iPad Pro, which can’t run Stage Manager, I’m in no rush to buy anything with an M2 chip — pro extreme or otherwise. I have no confidence that chips even a year or two old will be able (read allowed) to run newer system software processes or services. Can’t wait to see what my M1 Mac mini won’t be allowed to do.

I take it you upgrade your iPhone and Apple Watch every year, then? Every single year, the latest iPhone gets features no other iPhone gets. The iPhone 13 Pro got 120Hz, ProRes video, macro photography, Cinematic video, and Night Mode on every camera. Did that mean the iPhone 12 Pro is now EOL?

The older iPads don't get Stage Manager, Reference Mode (not even the 11" 2021 iPad Pro gets that), virtual memory, and additional screen space. But they get the rest of iPadOS 16, 17, 18. 19, and possibly 20 and 21, excepting whatever features will only work with the latest model. I strongly predict M2 iPads will get ProRes video, if only because the M2 has ProRes dedicated hardware while the M1 doesn't, which of course means that come this October, the M1 iPad will be EOL'ed because it couldn't get that one feature.

Just like with Stage Manager, they could implement ProRes on the M1 iPad but it wouldn't be pretty without that dedicated hardware, just like SM would suck with flash storage that runs 5x slower (500Mbps versus 2500Mbps on 2020 versus 2021 iPad Pros) and can't handle virtual memory. If people are up in arms over the 256GB chip on the 13" MBP that runs 2x slower, what would they say with SM running 5x slower? They would complain Apple came out with a trash feature. Either way, people will complain.

 

[svish]

Will be powerful. But don’t think it will be announced this year.

 

[theorist9]

Apple has been quite consistent with their release cadence baring any delays from TSMC... "M" processors on 18 month cycles.

We have only a single data point for the M processor release cadence—18 months between the M1 and M2. We of course can't judge any timing from this.

Here are my predictions for Apple Silicon:

A14 - Late 2020 - TSMC N5 (Process)
A15 - Late 2021 - TSMC N5P (Optimize)
A16 - Late 2022 - TSMC N4 (Optimize+) (Rumored intermediate node because of delays with N3)
A17 - Late 2023 - TSMC N3 (Process)
A18 - Late 2024 - TSMC N3P (Optimize)
A19 - Late 2025 - TSMC N3? (Optimize+) (There will probably be an intermediate node here from delays with N2)
A20 - Late 2026 - TSMC N2 (Process)

M1 - Late 2020 - TSMC N5 (Process)
M2 - Mid 2022 - TSMC N5P (Optimize)
M3 - Late 2023 - TSMC N3 (Process) (Rumored 15" Macbook Air)
M4 - Mid 2025 - TSMC N3P (Optimize)
M5 - Late 2026 - TSMC N2 (Process)

M1 Pro/Max - Late 2021 - TSMC N5 (Process)
M2 Pro/Max - Mid 2023 - TSMC N5P (Optimize)
M3 Pro/Max - Late 2024 - TSMC N3 (Process) (I expect some form of design refresh here since the MacBook Pro Retina and Touch Bar were around 3 years before their refresh. The rumored OLED screen is possible.)
M4 Pro/Max - Mid 2026 - TSMC N3P (Optimize)
M5 Pro/Max - Late 2027 - TSMC N2 (Process) (Again, probably some form of design refresh)

This is much more pessimistic than what Anandtech is reporting about TSMC's release schedule, and it omits the N3E, which will precede the N3P:

"TSMC's first 3 nm-class node is called N3 and this one is on track to start high volume manufacturing (HVM) in the second half of this year. Actual chips are set to be delivered to customers in early 2023... expect commercial N3E chips to be available in late 2023 or early 2024."

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[xkam1x]

I'm still waiting for my M1 Max 16-inch...

 

[PowerButton]

It’s more likely the M2 monicker will stick with the 5nm fabrication, as the current M2 already exists in that form. It would be strange to have a chip generation exist on 2 different fabrications.

I can see the M3 moving to 3nm in 2023 as long as TSMN can yield volume fabricates of that size.

 

[EugW]

It’s more likely the M2 monicker will stick with the 5nm fabrication, as the current M2 already exists in that form. It would be strange to have a chip generation exist on 2 different fabrications.

While I don't disagree that M2 Pro/Max will remain N5P, Apple actually has an A-series chip (not just chip generation, but same chip) on 2 different fab process generations.

Apple also has a different A-series chip (not just chip generation, but same chip) on 2 different fab processes from different companies.

Congrats on your first MacRumors post BTW!

 

[theluggage]

1) Apple need to remove the remaining 'high-end' Intel mini from the product line to complete the AS transition.
2) There is room in terms of both price and capability for a system that fits between a base M1 Mini and a Mac Studio.

Absolutely true, but the complication is that Apple could have plugged that hole back in March with a M1 Pro Mini/Studio. So why not (it was certainly there in the rumors)?

My guess is that the regular M2 is going to give the M1 Pro - especially the base 8-core version - a run for its money, especially for workloads that rely more on single-core CPU speed than multi-threading & GPU. So if a M2 Mini Is Almost Certainly Coming (tm) a M1 Pro Mini might look old very quickly.

Bear in mind that the current MacBook range - M1 Air, M2 Air, M2 MacBook Pro, M1 Pro Macbook pro... - involves products that sell in much higher volumes than desktops. That sort of dogpile in the desktop market could leave some models selling in unsustainably low numbers - and even though I agree with the reasoning behind the "Studio Pro" hole, that's based on MBP pricing, and doesn't mean that Apple predicts enough desktop sales for it to be worth filling.

Also, the paint is still wet on the Mac Studio range, so it isn't likely to see an update until well into next year, at the earliest - and (again, going on volume) the next 14/16" MacBook Pro models will be the first priority for the new Max/Pro chips.

...and all this is assuming that there is going to be a "M2" (or whatever) Pro/Max/Ultra/Ludicrous range with the same sort of differentiation as the M1.

 

[theluggage]

That said, I'm not buying the rumour either that M2 Pro/Max is getting N3. And if it does happen, it would mean it would be well into 2023 before those Macs would actually ship.

Well, the only hard data points we have so far on Apple Silicon update cycles is that the MBA and 13" MBP got updated after ~ 18 months, and that the 24" iMac is already well past its 1st birthday with no update in sight.

The Pro/Max MacBook Pros were only launched last Oct, so a Q2 2023 update is perfectly plausible.

It makes even more sense when you factor in the MacPro being announced/released by years end. It will be a good differentiator between the 5nm M2s

Frankly, though, that could be anything from the mythical 3nm M2 Extreme (with severely constrained supply) to a rackmount kit for a Mac Studio.

Problem is, Apple Silicon just doesn't seem to be a good fit for building a big box 'o' slots like the Mac Pro: add all the 'selling points' of the MP (insane RAM expansion, insane PCIe expansion, support for high-end AMD GPUs and Afterburners) and you compromise all the 'selling points' of Apple Silicon (Unified RAM on-package, tightly integrated on-die Metal-optimised GPU and on-die video codecs, ultra-low power consumption). If Apple decide that they really want to risk big bucks in keeping the Apple logo in the credits for Pixar movies, a new chip with support for PCIe and some sort of external RAM cache between the Unified RAM and swap probably doesn't break the laws of physics, but it seems a very high-risk investment.

 

[DeLaSoul]

Don't trust these rumors. I already created the M3 insanely. The best processor we ever made