If M2 Pro is coming to Mac mini next year perhaps it'll be binned versions due to as yet unknown yield rates for M2 Pro?
Ordering up TSMC N3 in 2023 isn't a "bold move". It was/is suppose to start shipping in late 2022. So if ordering up larger quantities in 2023 there shouldn't be a huge expectation was going to have to go through triple backflips on binning to get yields.
If the Mini with the M2 Pro and the Mini with plain M2 are two different enclosures then Apple is highly free to ship those two at different times. I'm not sure there is good reason for Apple to try to keep those in the same enclosure/chassis.
Apple doesn't have to start wafers if TSMC isn't at HVM. TSMC can't make Apple buy high "at risk" wafers if Apple didn't sign up for "at risk" wafers.
But once TSMC does get to the start of HVM it isn't like finished dies that are completely packaged up are going to quickly pop out like microwave popcorn out the other end of the production pipeline. If HVM isn't ready until November then they don't have to start the product M2 Pro product run until November. Even more so if the plain M2 is on N5P and is available for the other enclosure. The general Mini classification can move forward. Just like it already did with the M1 well over a year ago.
The Mini M2 Pro will be later arriving that many folks want but Apple doesn't have to "blow up " wafers to get it out the door quicker.
Much of the drama on yields are because many folks read 2H22 as "gotta be August-September or even as July 15". It isn't going to be that. TSMC has essentially said they aren't going to miss starting (not end product; just starting production pipeline) HVM inside of that large window. The pipeline takes weeks to complete. N3 process pipeline isn't fastest. If they start late enough, then the bulk of usable product could only show up in 2023. In that case , technically they started on time, but it will not be 2022 end product.
Apple ( and Intel and others) should have TSMC N3 dies back from the fabs now on a low volume , 'at risk' status. The more TSMC customers iterate on these early testing products then better the yields go toward "high volume manufacturing" benchmark. It is just not usually fast going this time compared to N7 -> N6/N5 transitions.
That's my first take on the situation as minimum package will surely be 16Gb with 512Gb storage - making a high end Mini easily approach $1499.
start at $1,499.
And the existing case would then surely be the shoo-in to help power and cool the arrangement while keeping costs down.
It is overkill for the M2, but for the M2 Pro it is a good fit. Apple could to do a new one for the lower end so that better hit that different customer segment.