Apple's US Market Share Growth Slows in 4Q 2008

[synth3tik]

Apple would have had to see this coming. I could only imagine that while the economy sinks lower people become more hesitant about switching platforms and purchasing "premium" hardware.

It would seem natural that Apples share of the market would go down while the cheaper PC laptops would see less of that decline.

 

[mathcolo]

it doesnt look any different than what has happened in the past during 4Q

did you guys not read this?

Yeah... why make a big deal out of this? It doesn't seem surprising at all considering the previous years.

 

[Evangelion]

Apple would have had to see this coming. I could only imagine that while the economy sinks lower people become more hesitant about switching platforms and purchasing "premium" hardware.

It would seem natural that Apples share of the market would go down while the cheaper PC laptops would see less of that decline.

Did any of you actually look at the statistics? PC-makers suffered even bigger drops in sales, except for few manufacturers! If we compare Apples quarter to the same quarter in previous year, Apple's market-share went UP! 4Q07 Apple had market-share of 6.7%, and in Q408 they had market-share of 8.0%! Only if we compare it to previous quarter (which is a dumb thing to do, since it introduces seasonal variance) did it go down, just like it has done every single year!

Nothing to see here, move along.

 

[GenNovE]

If apple joins the netbook market. They will price their computer @ 899.99
with netbook specs but with apple casing.

People ar catching on to apples pricing. Sometimes is just not worth it.

 

[Vulpinemac]

Just more info suggesting that apple is ignoring the low end of the market and is starting to suffer because of it.

They need a decent budget laptop and a decent budget desktop (and in apple's case, "budget" necessarily means headless). And no the mini doesn't cut it, nor would a simple speed bump be likely to cut it either, they need to take advantage of the chips Intel offers AND switch from using all laptop parts when so much money could be saved simply by using the desktop equivalents.

Actually, I will disagree with you. I don't need a budget laptop, what I need is a good, compact, portable computer that I can hold in one hand and use with the other. There is literally nothing like that on the market at this time; the closest you can get is one of the former myriad of PDA's that were underpowered and inconvenient, or an iPod Touch/iPhone. Netbooks are the only things that currently can fit the bill to some extent, but very, very poorly; you still have to put it down on something in order to use it.

You're right, the Mini doesn't match a laptop of any sort; it's simply not usable as a portable computer unless you count a small-form-factor desktop as portable. However, the Mini is hardly any less capable than any similarly-priced laptop computer in actual computing power. I'm personally using a first-generation mini as a DVR holding well over 60 hours of programming.

While I don't claim to be telepathic or have any inside lines to Apple, I'm certain that Apple has very valid reasons for delaying or even eliminating some computing products. Building a headless, mid-sized machine such as so many people claim to want would likely cost minimally less than an iMac to build due to the massive amounts of engineering that would be required to give it the same accessibility as a Mac Pro while providing iMac-like capabilities. This would put two of Apple's products in direct competition with each other, something Apple quit doing as soon as the first-gen iMac was released.
The "netbook" is obviously something that Apple will want to exceed, not just match. As has been said, almost anybody could produce an el-cheapo piece of junk that's only barely useful. On the other hand, something of a similar size but different form factor with easier-to-use capabilities could well make netbooks obsolete when it comes out; and I highly expect that Apple is working on such a device.

Wait a while. I'd guess that before the end of this year, you'll be finding netbooks priced under $100 simply because they can't compete with what I believe is coming.

 

[BenRoethig]

Seeing that Acer's growth is up 55%, I have to disagree with you.

Question is that because they're selling more computers or because they bought Gateway/eMachines and the numbers were not combined q4 2007?

 

[synth3tik]

Did any of you actually look at the statistics? PC-makers suffered even bigger drops in sales, except for few manufacturers! If we compare Apples quarter to the same quarter in previous year, Apple's market-share went UP! 4Q07 Apple had market-share of 6.7%, and in Q408 they had market-share of 8.0%! Only if we compare it to previous quarter (which is a dumb thing to do, since it introduces seasonal variance) did it go down, just like it has done every single year!

Nothing to see here, move along.

It's simple math. If you have 8% of the market share and someone else carries 30% of the market share and with consumer spending down the industry sees a 10% decline on new sales. You competitor will loose more in the way of numbers, but as far as market share the person who already has less will loose more.

 

[Vulpinemac]

It would seem natural that Apples share of the market would go down while the cheaper PC laptops would see less of that decline.

The problem with your analysis is... that it's wrong. Apple's growth figures compared to everyone but Acer (whose numbers are only now including Gateway) and Toshiba are anywhere from 10% to 25% higher. So while everyone's sales have gone down, Apple's have gone down significantly less than the other two top PC manufacturers.

 

[Evangelion]

It's simple math.

If it's so simple, why do you fail at it?

If you have 8% of the market share and someone else carries 30% of the market share and with consumer spending down the industry sees a 10% decline on new sales. You competitor will loose more in the way of numbers, but as far as market share the person who already has less will loose more.

It doesn't quite work that way.... And if you actually bothered to look at the statistics, you would see that those bigger players lost more than Apple did, both in raw units and percentages....

If the 10% decline hits everyone equally, then their market-shares will stay identical. But at least those statistics show that it's hitting PC-manufacturers harder than it hits Apple.

 

[Hattig]

I'm willing to make a prediction: Netbooks, as they stand now, are nothing but a fad. People are buying them because they can get a half-sized laptop computer for less than $300. However, I might also note that approximately half of those purchased with Linux as the OS have been returned; numbers that do not get counted in the two reports above.

Not true. Asus said that the returns on the Linux machines were the same percentage as overall returns.

Just because other netbook companies released Linux netbooks with a really poorly configured Linux on them doesn't mean that Linux is the problem, just the cheap-ass netbook company.

Netbooks are all that many people need for casual web surfing, IM, email, etc. They're cheap. They're really portable. They're the ideal machine for so many situations. Screw that expensive laptop, I'll have a netbook and a cheap desktop PC.

 

[Vulpinemac]

It's simple math. If you have 8% of the market share and someone else carries 30% of the market share and with consumer spending down the industry sees a 10% decline on new sales. You competitor will loose more in the way of numbers, but as far as market share the person who already has less will loose more.

Poor logic. If everyone's sales go down 10%, then the market share would remain static. On a year-over-year basis, Apple's share has been rising while everyone else's shares have been falling; not by numbers of units sold, which have consistently been in the positive numbers, but in the ratio of how many units were sold this quarter over the same time period last year, which has the general growth numbers in the negative with the exceptions of Acer, Toshiba and Apple. I think Acer's numbers can be considered invalid unless you add Gateway's numbers to Acer's for the previous year.

 

[synth3tik]

The problem with your analysis is... that it's wrong. Apple's growth figures compared to everyone but Acer (whose numbers are only now including Gateway) and Toshiba are anywhere from 10% to 25% higher. So while everyone's sales have gone down, Apple's have gone down significantly less than the other two top PC manufacturers.

See the post right above.

Apple's market share went down significantly less then other, because their begining market share was less then others.


A 5-10% drop out of a 30% share is a lot more noticeable then 5-10% off of only 8% of the market share.

 

[RAMDoubler]

Actually...

Overpriced? You don't see BMW and Mercedes slashing prices.

There is a solution for the cost-conscious buyer though and it desperately needs updating.

See "Mini Cooper" and "Smart Car"....

This is the same old argument we (mac fans) always have, now the issue is even more glaring. Apple is pushing to appeal to a wide audience, and has done so successfully with the iPod, with models ranging from high end to low - all competitively priced.

But Apple continues to, for whatever reason, ignore the mid- to low-end of the computer market. There's a huge, deliberate hole in both the desktop and notebook the product lines, and until it's filled, Apple will never see big market share gains in the PC arena.

I hate it too, 'cause I'd love me some xMac

 

[Vulpinemac]

Not true. Asus said that the returns on the Linux machines were the same percentage as overall returns.

Just because other netbook companies released Linux netbooks with a really poorly configured Linux on them doesn't mean that Linux is the problem, just the cheap-ass netbook company.

Netbooks are all that many people need for casual web surfing, IM, email, etc. They're cheap. They're really portable. They're the ideal machine for so many situations. Screw that expensive laptop, I'll have a netbook and a cheap desktop PC.

Where did I specify Acer as the only Linux netbook seller?

I will also dispute the word "need." Instead, I would use the word "have," since nobody really needs it and there's nothing better out in the same size factor.

 

[christian_k]

The entry level new unibody Macbook has a CPU with the same speed as my 3 years old laptop (that has firewire, wifi, blue tooth, 4 Gb RAM and a 250 GB harddisk). This laptop was very much middle of the road when I bought it and it still is as powerful as the new Macbook. 3 years old in the computer industry is ancient.

Excuse me, but what laptop had such a cpu three years ago?

When the first MacBook came out in 2006, it was one of the first notebooks using core duo cpus at all. The majority of notebooks used single core Pentium-M ("Centrino") that time, many even used cerlerons while some cheap notebooks even used the Pentium4-M which hat higher clock but not real world performance and very bad energy efficiency. Core2Duo was not even introduced.Do not confuse clock frequencies with read performance.

What operating system was able to use 4 GB at that time at all? Vista was in its infancy and XP-64 Bit never had good driver support making it a problematic choice for a notebook.

Christian

 

[dam0dred]

Considering that the iMac and Mac mini haven't been refreshed in a ridiculously long time, this isn't really a shock.

 

[jellomizer]

I doubt that we will ever see apple surpassing the 25% market share mark, no matter how good you make OS X and the Macs.

1. There will always be cheaper systems then the Macs, when you are in the businesses of making the best. That means there is someone else making less then best and for cheaper.

2. Holes in product range. Mini-Towers systems. Large screen low end laptops. etc...
There will always be a range that any one company will miss that someone else will pick up.

There are other factors.
Microsoft 9x% market share is really a fluke. I doubt Apple or any company or even Microsoft can get back to where they were in the late 90's

 

[iParis]

I hope this means in computers because I have greatly see the number of iPods around increase.
I think that they'd also get a bit more market share once they upgrade the iMac and Mac mini.
Also, we're in a recession.

 

[Evangelion]

See the post right above.

Apple's market share went down significantly less then other, because their begining market share was less then others.

A 5-10% drop out of a 30% share is a lot more noticeable then 5-10% off of only 8% of the market share.

Seriously, you have no clue what you are talking about. Are you saying that bigger OEM's lost more market-share begause they are bigger, and Apple lost less because they are smaller? Your comments make absolutely no sense at all.

And like it has been said before: Apples market-share went UP, whereas the industry in general went DOWN.

 

[tbishh]

It seems that the Intel switch effect is over. Windows 7 around the corner, will definitely make it less attractive to switch to Apple.

The point since the switch is that Apple has become an ordinary PC maker, with absolutely overpriced equipments, and not living up to the quality standards of the PowerPC era.

However. there is room for a 3% market share, based on high-end, high-quality Mac computers, made with a non-Intel processor, but at a price which corresponds roughly to what the actual Apple PCs cost.

The bottom line is that it is
poor sign if the biggest argument to buy a Mac is that it runs Windows. That is not enough for the future.

Let´s sit down again with IBM, because it would be mutually beneficial.

Have you seen/ran the Windows 7 beta?? It still has a HUGE compatibilty issue. Bussinessses still run XP and they are going to keep running XP as long as they can(because its acutally stable and doesn't use 50% of they're RAM) most medium to small bussiness (especially how things are now) aren't going to be willing to upgrade STILL because it'd be way to expensive because then they would also have to upgrade their hardware.

I do agree with you however on the price. Not a problem for I or someone who needs an Apple computer, but for the average person just using the computer to sync they're iPod and send emails to family and friends, they're going to go with a cheap Acer which correlates with Acers rise in revenue. Its the same with groceries. People are buying the generic brands just because its cheaper and they just put up with the difference in quality or freshness.

 

[noahhendrix]

Firewire?

I don't quite understand the huff over firewire, or at least the idea that people are angry with Apple. What are they going to do switch to PCs which universally lack firewire? A quick search on eBay finds numerous firewire 800 to 400, or firewire to USB (less than $5). I know these solutions aren't the best, but neither is discarding expensive equipment because the new Macs no longer have firewire.

 

[preservative]

Apple are going to suffer with these netbooks. When the nvidia 9400 chips are in netbooks later this year every man/woman and his/her cat/dog is going to want one.

It is a good point that someone made in about selling pc specs and a apple casing and price tag to match.

 

[mattwolfmatt]

It's not much of a surprise that Apple's market share dropped. Everything is being affected by the economic downturn. However, I do think that Apple's market share wouldn't have been hit as hard as it was, if they were offering a netbook for sale. I have a feeling that within the next year, Apple will realease one.

Don

Let's remember what market share means. It's a percentage of all the computers sold during that quarter. Yes, the economy is down, and probably fewer people are buying computers. But bottom line is that Apple's percentage of this smaller number dropped slightly.

 

[kghoops]

Have you seen/ran the Windows 7 beta?? It still has a HUGE compatibilty issue. Bussinessses still run XP and they are going to keep running XP as long as they can(because its acutally stable and doesn't use 50% of they're RAM) most medium to small bussiness (especially how things are now) aren't going to be willing to upgrade STILL because it'd be way to expensive because then they would also have to upgrade their hardware.

I do agree with you however on the price. Not a problem for I or someone who needs an Apple computer, but for the average person just using the computer to sync they're iPod and send emails to family and friends, they're going to go with a cheap Acer which correlates with Acers rise in revenue. Its the same with groceries. People are buying the generic brands just because its cheaper and they just put up with the difference in quality or freshness.

Yes and yes. You're really going to compare a beta version of Windows 7 to XP with 3 service packs applied? Vista uses 50% of the RAM because it's designed to. We have all this RAM, let's just not use any of it. And since when has a version of Windows not required you to upgrade hardware at some point? Our company does not have any PC's that run XP that had the same hardware with Windows 2000. You were one of those who made this argument when Windows XP first came out weren't you.

 

[noahhendrix]

Hope

Also, I think that having a strong back-to-school season equates to hope for the long term future of Apple. This means that a great number of college-aged students are buying Macs, which 5-6 years down the road will be looking at Macs again. Similar to the theory behind soda the younger they are exposed to a product the more likely they will be lifelong customers. So while they are not penetrating the middle-aged market in 10-20 years they have a good chance at doing just that. All personal belief/hope and by no means statistically backed up.