Apple's US Market Share Growth Slows in 4Q 2008

[noahhendrix]

Xp

Yes and yes. You're really going to compare a beta version of Windows 7 to XP with 3 service packs applied? Vista uses 50% of the RAM because it's designed to. We have all this RAM, let's just not use any of it. And since when has a version of Windows not required you to upgrade hardware at some point? Our company does not have any PC's that run XP that had the same hardware with Windows 2000. You were one of those who made this argument when Windows XP first came out weren't you.

They may not have been the same hardware, but in current economic times what business can justify upgrading mass amounts of hardware to run Windows 7? Especially when application vendors/MS will continue to support XP for a while to come. I think the damage was done with Vista and it will be hard for any businesses to risk upgrading to Windows 7 for fear of stability issues.

 

[gnasher729]

Let's remember what market share means. It's a percentage of all the computers sold during that quarter. Yes, the economy is down, and probably fewer people are buying computers. But bottom line is that Apple's percentage of this smaller number dropped slightly.

If you look at the graph, Apple has always very high sales in the third quarter, which is the back-to-school quarter. Every year, without fail. And every year, Apple drops down a bit in the next quarter, stays about the same in the quarter after that, and follows this by two huge jumps an the next two quarters. If you compare with the previous quarter, you take seasonality into account, which gives you completely misleading results. If you ran a company selling skis or snowboards, would you despair every year in June over your horribly bad sales?

If you compare each quarter with the same quarter one year earlier, you get meaningful numbers. And Apple's market share has grown at a steady rate all the time, once you remove seasonality. Market share growth from the previous year 6.7 to 8.0 percent. Unit sales growth 8.3%, while the total industry did shrink by 10.1%.

 

[Unspeaked]

I don't quite understand the huff over firewire, or at least the idea that people are angry with Apple. What are they going to do switch to PCs which universally lack firewire? A quick search on eBay finds numerous firewire 800 to 400, or firewire to USB (less than $5). I know these solutions aren't the best, but neither is discarding expensive equipment because the new Macs no longer have firewire.

Do you know that for a fact? Or are you just assuming?

 

[mozmac]

Seeing that Acer's growth is up 55%, I have to disagree with you.

Judging by the graph, it looks like this happens every year. So overall, looks like Apple is doing fine. Things are moving up for them.

 

[griz]

They peaked between Q3 and Q4 for the past 2 years and then sloped off after Q4.
The real news is the trend. At this current rate, They will peak at 12% in Q4 of 09.

 

[benpatient]

not going to read all these posts...just came here to say that netbooks rule. maybe now that the RDF is on hiatus, Apple can rush their 500 dollar 10" netbook to market.

It's the future of mobile computing, and jobs is wrong about them, just like he was wrong about cell phones. He'll come around if he lives long enough, but by then it may be too late.

acer?

yup.

 

[twoodcc]

well at least apple improved year-over-year. maybe now they will get into the netbook market soon

 

[benpatient]

Do you know that for a fact? Or are you just assuming?

all of my PCs have firewire. The only one with FW that I put in there was one that I built from scratch.

also, FW-USB converters don't work for crap. You're lucky to get USB 1.1 level speeds...that obviously won't cut it for DV transfers...you need a minimum sustained transfer rate of 25mb/sec.

anyway, netbooks rule.

 

[mdriftmeyer]

Slowed? It's doubled in two years. As the trends show the slope is positive and in two years we'll be commenting on how growth has slowed, yet we'll be at 12%.

 

[Shiner]

I'm waiting for Apple's overpriced notebook lineup to start hurting them. Their notebook pricing scheme is quite elitist in the midst of these troubling economic times. It will hurt them, the question is when.

Exactly what I am waiting for. Usually Apple offers a very competitive price on their laptops. The new lineup is just to expensive in a good economy and horrible in a bad one. I always have said build a PC to game with and buy a mac laptop to do everything else. I just bought a Sony FW laptop and the specs are a lot better than a macbook. They need to reconsider the price point.

 

[Shiner]

I'm willing to make a prediction: Netbooks, as they stand now, are nothing but a fad. People are buying them because they can get a half-sized laptop computer for less than $300. However, I might also note that approximately half of those purchased with Linux as the OS have been returned; numbers that do not get counted in the two reports above.

WHEN Apple produces a pocketable computer in the same size range, I expect it will make the current round of netbooks look sick and pretty much blow away that market as Apple is currently blowing away the Smartphone market. (Before you dispute this last statement, reports came out just yesterday that forecasts Apple's iPhone to own roughly 40% of the Smartphone market by the end of next year. Considering how well established most of their competitors are, taking a 40% share in just 3 years would be considered 'blowing them away.')

Guy I love apple but please no more drinking the kool-aid. NO WAY apple takes 40% of the smartphone market.

 

[Maxington]

Apple still making headway.

Personally I hope they never get above 20% market share as I think things change dramatically for the company and what they can do is restricted by their user base.

 

[notjustjay]

I don't quite understand the huff over firewire, or at least the idea that people are angry with Apple. What are they going to do switch to PCs which universally lack firewire? A quick search on eBay finds numerous firewire 800 to 400, or firewire to USB (less than $5). I know these solutions aren't the best, but neither is discarding expensive equipment because the new Macs no longer have firewire.

You will find that your $5 firewire to USB converter is only good for remapping the power supply pins (e.g. charging a Firewire iPod over USB). You will not find any converters, for any price, that can convert the Firewire protocol to USB. They are totally different.

You CANNOT use a Firewire peripheral on a computer that doesn't have a Firewire port. Period. That's why people are in a huff. If you own a Firewire camcorder, hard drive, or audio mixer, Apple is forcing you to buy a MacBook Pro instead of a MacBook. Or a PC with Firewire...

 

[notjustjay]

Netbooks are all that many people need for casual web surfing, IM, email, etc. They're cheap. They're really portable. They're the ideal machine for so many situations.

Exactly. I have a MacBook Pro as my primary computer, and I love it. But there are times when I wish I could take the laptop with me but it's just not practical to do so.

Say when I visit a friend's house or when I go on vacation. I want to have something to pull out and email/surf or do light work. Something I'm not afraid to leave in the car or hotel room. My personal data's not on it and even if it's stolen, it's $300, not $2000. It's small and light so it packs away in my backpack or luggage easily. And most of them get way better battery life than my MBP.

This weekend I'm going away on a winter camping retreat. I'm not bringing my MBP. If I had a netbook, I'd bring it along.

My brother just got an MSI Wind. He carries it with him everywhere. It's small and light enough that he doesn't notice it, but it's always ready to go.

I'm waiting for the Samsung NC10 to be released in Canada. It looks like an amazing little machine.

 

[Unspeaked]

all of my PCs have firewire. The only one with FW that I put in there was one that I built from scratch.

also, FW-USB converters don't work for crap. You're lucky to get USB 1.1 level speeds...that obviously won't cut it for DV transfers...you need a minimum sustained transfer rate of 25mb/sec.

My point exactly.

There's loads of PCs with FireWire built in, especially among the laptops.

I can't believe someone is actually still surprised, months after the fact, that people are upset with the move to drop FW from the MacBooks and its lead to lost sales...

 

[Hemingray]

Seeing that Acer's growth is up 55%, I have to disagree with you.

To me this clearly shows people are looking for cheaper products in a hard economic time, and Apple is clearly not the place to go for that.

It's just like cars; people will hold onto their computers longer, and look for the least (or less) expensive ones.

Now would be a GREAT time for a revamped Mac Mini with a drop in price. Like that's gonna happen...

 

[kironin]

Seeing that Acer's growth is up 55%, I have to disagree with you.

Acer ...focus on the booming low-cost mini-notebook segment.

In all this talk about Steve's health and how Apple will tank without him as CEO, I think you could legitimately argue that he is now starting to hold back Apple. I think it's missed that the lack of decent update to the Mac mini, the lack of decent sub-$900 Macbook, and Steve's opposition to a mini-notebook and obsession with ridiculously high-end user unfriendly boutique laptops with non-removable batteries has resulted in Apple NOT fully capitalizing on their success of the ipod/itunes combo in capturing more of the computer market share. Very, very few parents are springing for 17 inch Macbook Pros.

I was talking to a devoted Apple fan whose Titanium Powerbook was finally dying. He would like a Macbook Air but the price compared to what he needs it for has him for the first time considering Windows based mini-notebook. Apple is passing up a market they could have possibly owned a large junk of.

When times get better, is someone going to switch back to Apple ?

 

[IJ Reilly]

If you compare each quarter with the same quarter one year earlier, you get meaningful numbers. And Apple's market share has grown at a steady rate all the time, once you remove seasonality. Market share growth from the previous year 6.7 to 8.0 percent. Unit sales growth 8.3%, while the total industry did shrink by 10.1%.

For an even better way of understanding this, subtract Apple's YoY unit growth out of the numbers, and examine the Windows PC industry's sales growth -- which was minus 11.4%. Over the same time period, Apple's sales grew by 8.3%. The difference in this trend is fairly stunning.

Sequential quarters are essentially meaningless because of seasonality effects. Industry "rank" is utterly meaningless. That's just a horse race with no winner's circle. All that matters is growth in sales in comparative quarters, which Apple continues to accomplish, while the balance of the industry does not.

Even more importantly, most of the industry analysts are forecasting Apple's Mac unit sales as flat or even declining YoY. I think we can see that this won't be happening.

 

[Unspeaked]

Exactly what I am waiting for. Usually Apple offers a very competitive price on their laptops. The new lineup is just to expensive in a good economy and horrible in a bad one. I always have said build a PC to game with and buy a mac laptop to do everything else. I just bought a Sony FW laptop and the specs are a lot better than a macbook. They need to reconsider the price point.

It's funny you mention that.

I was just in a Sony Store this past weekend. I hadn't set foot in one for years and thought I'd look at the laptops to see what sort of competition Apple was up against.

I was really surprised at the specs and price points. I remember Sony as always being the other "way overpriced" computer manufacturer, but they had an 18" laptop with 1TB storage, 4GB ram, a BluRay drive and FW for $1,700! And remember, this was at the horrible Sony Store, which sells things for MSRP and above. I bet you could easily find that model from a reseller for under $1,500!

And that's all just the high end competition. With all these Net Books nibbling at the low end, I'm not very optimistic as far as Apple is concerned.

 

[liven2]

The Unknown...

I think these numbers are quite good considering the economy and what other PC makers are doing. In fact I think they are very good.

All of you who are screaming for a netbook or some type of device just wait... I would not be surprised to see Apple surprise us with something totally innovative before the end of the year. Something that may challenge the rest of the industry to take note and "think Different" about their product offerings. Something that will stir the pot like the iPhone did. I could be wrong but Keep a watchful eye I personally think it is very possible.

 

[sishaw]

Looks like Apple is going to have to rethink its stance on the netbook market. I used to exclusively buy Macs, but the uniqueness of the Mac is now becoming an impediment to productivity and creativity.

For the lack of a suitable computer from Apple and with the advent of Windows 7 and the appeal and price of the new VAIO™ P series, this Mac user is ready to test the waters with Microsoft™ once again.

I think so too. I hope they do it with their usual flair for style, but also at a competitive price. Unfortunately, a lot of folks are probably going to buy an MSI Wind or Acer One long before that happens. My guess is that rather than strip down and shrink the MacBook, Apple will upsize the iPhone/Touch, upgrade the processor (Atom?), and add a keyboard.

 

[iOrlando]

the problem with netbooks (and steve jobs mentioned this before) is that they are still very young...we dont know what the long-term usage patterns will be. Are people buying regular laptops and then a netbook for travel? Are kids using netbooks at school? Do people care that they cant do much in the way of intensive things on a netbook? The netbook is kind of like the cellphone in 2003. Still way early to decide what path to take.

best path for apple is to remain focused on their macs and just make those products a total fun machine with the additional tweaks and updates along the way.

 

[AidenShaw]

Judging by the graph, it looks like this happens every year. So overall, looks like Apple is doing fine. Things are moving up for them.

Actually, if you look at the chart, it has gone downhill a bit.

In the two previous years, Q4 was down from Q3 - but still higher than Q2.

In the latest year, Q4 was even down from Q2.

 

[dukebound85]

^^well golly, maybe the recession had a little impact. the chart is still roughly the same pattern

 

[mdriftmeyer]

Actually, if you look at the chart, it has gone downhill a bit.

In the two previous years, Q4 was down from Q3 - but still higher than Q2.

In the latest year, Q4 was even down from Q2.

Actually, you're not grasping growth. Growth, between quarters is as erratic as the stock markets. Growth between years or longer shows market growth and long-term stability.

Apple's market share has doubled in 2 years.

When they come out continuing to sell more systems this next quarters, they will continue to compare that against Netbook products, but that's moronic.

There is a reason they talk about cellphone markets and smartphone markets.

Where is the money at? Smartphones.

Where is the money not at? Netbooks.