Every iPhone launch has been a nonevent the past few years. Most people upgrade because they have to... broken screen, too slow, battery doesn’t hold its charge, etc. If the X couldn’t get people excited to upgrade en masse, I doubt 5G and a rehash of the iPhone 4 design will do it.
If Apple wants a huge upgrade cycle like they had in the past, they’ll need to learn to innovate again. How about weeklong battery life? Sat tech so I’m connected anywhere in the world? Tech that Elon will surely beat Apple to the punch with even though Apple had every advantage. Sort of like how upstarts Roku and Spotify killed Apple in video and music.