We can speculate all we want. The problem is that nobody has given any solid answers. You can say that one of the higher ups at att said there would be an unsubsidized price. Others speculate that he was wrong, and that apple made it clear everyone would get the same price at 199/299. Some have called att and been told that they are eligible for the subsidized price even though they are not technically eligible for an upgrade at the moment. Some have received the opposite answer. Many apple employees have told customers that they know nothing except of the 199/299 price points.
The problem hear is that 50% of the people that have commented on this question, have given one answer. The other 50% have received another.
Obviously, nobody knows. I'll tell you one thing though, the longer we go without an answer, the better the chance of everyone receiving the identical price point at 199/299. My reasoning for that is simply that most people (we're not most people) who heard about the announcement are assuming that the price is what they heard the day the iphone was announced... "199/299." The longer we go without answer, the bigger the problem will be if att comes up with some ludicrous unsubsidized price (Especially if the unsubsidized price is still for a locked phone, which is what's assumed since att has mentioned no unlocked phones being available ).
The reality is we can't speculate on price for an unsubsidized phone (if there will be one) because most phones that aren't subsidized by the carrier, dont require a 2 year contract. The whole point of the subsidy, is to lock people in for 2 years.
This will have some serious repercussions if done wrong... Just watch. I've gone back and forth, but considering the circumstances, I think that ATT exec is gonna change his plans for an unsubsidized phone, instead just taking the hit from old subsidized unfinished contracts, while feasting on an even larger base of iphone users that will be paying $70+ per month in monthly charges. It might be the best business decision.