What happens if China invades Taiwan and the US Government is forced to take military action against China. I suspect China would retaliate by blocking US business from doing any business in their country. Something tells me the costs would be a lot higher and that does not even factor in the supply chain shortage/disruption from that kind of event. Apple does not have to bring manufacturing back to the US their are other countries in the world Apple could set up business.
Good point.
Although I think the China/Taiwan/Japan/US/South Korea/G7 political issues will bubble up way before we can "strategically retreat" before moving manufacturing back to other countries.
If China tries to "bomb" Taiwan or even strategically try to "Occupy it", that would be considered destroying it's own nation. And this would be looked at very unfavorably even to Mainland China who enjoy travelling and vacationing in Taiwan and store wealth there.
This wouldn't be handled like the Munich Pact in 1938. Riots would ensue both on the mainland and on Taiwan. Foreign Nationals around the world would likely be kicked out of every country. Every supply chain model would be destroyed. The G7 would have to finally come to a quick consensus on whether China was a partner, competitor or a security threat. They would pick the later if China makes a forceful "military" attack against Taiwan.
This would finally bind the "democratic" worlds against the "autocratic" worlds. China is smart enough to realize that they can not be financially independent of Global Democracies and shouldn't make them their enemy. North Korea, wasn't and are suffering for it. We (Global Democracies) would block shipping from materials companies all around the world that provide raw materials to China. The only "ally" of any size or threat to help them is Russia.
So Xi Jinping wants China to look "large" and "non-intimidated" globally. He hosts mostly "Pro One China" flag waving exercise within the party and moves very slowly. But that said, the CPC also understands what almost all of Global Private Equity wealth companies realize ... that China needs Foreign Investment, Technology Transfer, access to raw materials, Access to Energy, etc to promote their Private Industries. Don't flex on Taiwan just to flex on it.
China doesn't have a sizeable global navy to protect it's global interests either. So while China is definitely the biggest threat to Democracies in the world, I don't think China needs to punch itself in the face right now either.
