Component Supplier Predicts Shipments of 45 Million iPads in 2011, Speculation on Smaller Model

[Lestdog]

I already have the smaller iPad... or as I like to call it.. the iPhone.

 

[URFloorMatt]

Wait, so you hold a book in the air?

Seriously, iPad isn't that heavy, and why would you want to hold it up in the air while sitting anyway?

If you don't hold it in the air and call it cumbersome, you'll be the first...

and you should hit the gym in that case.

Do you do a lot of wrist strength training at the gym? Do you fanboys ever read what you write?

The biggest complaint I've heard from iPad owners is it is uncomfortable to hold for extended periods. The first time I picked it up I had the same reaction: too heavy for the intended uses of the device. But I'm sure if Steve Jobs gets on stage and says, "You kids need to hit the gym," then that'll fix everything!

It is not "heavy." It is uncomfortable because of its weight. A 2 lbs. pencil wouldn't be heavy, but it'd be very uncomfortable to use.

It either needs to be smaller or it needs to be lighter. I doubt lighter is even feasible since I'm sure 95% of the weight is in the glass display already. That's a shame, since the current iPad is almost 3x the size of an iPhone, but a seven inch iPad would only be exactly twice the size. Of course, a seven inch model would probably be much more scalable to other uses, particularly in cars.

They're probably going to have to do what Amazon did and offer an iPad and an iPad DX. And that means they're going to need to cut down on different models. On that front, I honestly think the only reason Apple even offers a wifi only model is because that black strip for 3G drives Jobs insane. So maybe they could do something about that.

 

[cvaldes]

I can see the separation between iPhone and 9.7" iPad, but I don't know if this will still hold true at 7", I'd have to play with one to see.

As an owner of a 3.5" iPod touch and having used the 9.7" iPad, I can see where a 7" tablet would fit in.

After all, there have been 13", 15" and 17" MacBooks for years. We are talking about a difference of 3" of diagonal screen size, which is quite a lot for a handheld device.

 

[Lynxpoint]

Do you do a lot of wrist strength training at the gym? Do you fanboys ever read what you write?

The biggest complaint I've heard from iPad owners is it is uncomfortable to hold for extended periods. The first time I picked it up I had the same reaction: too heavy for the intended uses of the device. But I'm sure if Steve Jobs gets on stage and says, "You kids need to hit the gym," then that'll fix everything!

It is not "heavy." It is uncomfortable because of its weight. A 2 lbs. pencil wouldn't be heavy, but it'd be very uncomfortable to use.

It either needs to be smaller or it needs to be lighter. I doubt lighter is even feasible since I'm sure 95% of the weight is in the glass display already. That's a shame, since the current iPad is almost 3x the size of an iPhone, but a seven inch iPad would only be exactly twice the size. Of course, a seven inch model would probably be much more scalable to other uses, particularly in cars.

They're probably going to have to do what Amazon did and offer an iPad and an iPad DX. And that means they're going to need to cut down on different models. On that front, I honestly think the only reason Apple even offers a wifi only model is because that black strip for 3G drives Jobs insane. So maybe they could do something about that.

I find that I can type on the ipad for an hour comfortably if I hold it like a serving tray rather than by the edge. Lighter of course would be nice, but I don't think the current model is in any way cumbersome.

I like your comment on the black strip of the 3G model because that strip drives me nuts. Well, not really, but I do not like how it ruins the aesthetics of the device. Not a problem for me personally though, because the ridiculous data sharing plans available where I live were unacceptable, so its wi-fi only for me.

 

[alhedges]

But even this doesn't make sense, since the original 9.7" is already outcompeting the Sony and Kindle as e-readers.

As an e-reader, it's getting trounced by the Kindle and Nook, notwithstanding initial enthusiasm for the platform as an e-reader. Kindle sales continued to increase sales growth throughout the summer, and when the Kindle 3 was announced, it sold out during the preorder period. FWIW, I don't think that the Kindle and the iPad even compete very much.

I am skeptical of the 7" iPad; I can see how the form factor might make sense, but I don't really think that there are very many people who wouldn't buy a 9.7" iPad but who would buy a 7" iPad. Unless Apple does something to make it particularly desirable, which is always a possibility.

 

[koach]

Uhh... have you tried holding it like a book to read? It gets very cumbersome to hold.

I've read 3 eBooks in its entirety on it, and I haven't had any issue at all. To quote Steve Jobs, "maybe you're holding it wrong?"

But seriously it sounds like your physical fitness is lacking or possibly you have some sort of ailment. It's a very light device.

 

[koach]

And you remind me of those jock heads who can't understand anything that doesn't involve dumbbells. 3 extra pounds on a laptop is a serious thing! Who wants to carry that around? We're not discussing physical fitness or whether it's POSSIBLE to carry such a thing - it's just not convenient or desirable.

Go back to pumping weights and shooting 'roids. Stick with what you know.

But that's just it, 3 extra pounds is NOT a serious thing. It's 3 friggin pounds man. If that is an issue then see a doctor.

 

[iMule]

Remember the iPhone Nano that was supposed to come out last year? Other than it being damn near impossible to type on, it's easier to hold because it's lighter and more compact. Yeah... SMH!

 

[NebulaClash]

I've read 3 eBooks in its entirety on it, and I haven't had any issue at all.

And I've now read more than 50 novels on it since April, and I never want to read books on any other device.

Look, if you are reading a book, do you hold the book in the air? Not for long or else your arms get tired. Heck, just hold your arms in the air with nothing in your hands and they'll still get tired.

You cradle the book in your lap, or if reading in bed while lying down you prop it up on your stomach. This device is meant for reading. It works great. Weight not an issue unless you like holding it out from your body unnecessarily.

 

[marksman]

You can talk about the success of the iPod or the iPhone but this is the craziest thing ever.

The adoption rate and creation of an entire segment of the market by one company in this day and age is unbelievable. Yes Apple did create this segment of the market. Desktop pc's crunched into laptop form do not a real tablet experience make.

They are just running away with it. With the iPhone they met a lot of resistance from long standing competition, with the iPod they met some resistance from standing competition, but with the iPad the market was all theirs for the taking and they are rolling over it.

It is going to be really hard for the competition to make a dent with the kind of momentum and steam they have going for them. At this point the iPad is the market. You will have iPads and iPad clones.

 

[farmboy]

...The biggest complaint I've heard from iPad owners is it is uncomfortable to hold for extended periods. The first time I picked it up I had the same reaction: too heavy for the intended uses of the device. ...
It either needs to be smaller or it needs to be lighter... but a seven inch iPad would only be exactly twice the size.

First, the "fanboy" stuff again? Come on.

Second, I don't find the weight an issue at all, whether carrying, standing around sharing the display, reading on the couch or in bed. Maybe it's just me, but multiple millions seem unconcerned as well. Sales say it does not need to be smaller (that would be a different product entirely), and lighter will come when components are redesigned around new technologies (think battery, glass, shell).

Third, your size calculations are not correct. Draw it out on a piece of paper and you'll see why.

 

[NebulaClash]

It is remarkable how the competition is going to let Apple have the Christmas shopping season almost all to itself in the tablet area. Remember all the noise at CES in January about how many tablets we'd see this year? Then the iPad was announced a month later and it was back to the drawing board.

Even now with devices inching toward the finish line such as the Galaxy tab, it's running a version of Android that is not optimized for its form factor. Huh? Are you kidding me? Talk about disappointed users! And now we know 3.0 won't be the version for tablets either, but it will be the version after this that will finally be fully ready for tablets. Huh? They are giving Apple that much of a head start? They will be tens of millions of units behind by the time they bring out a tablet ready to compete.

I suppose there is the Blackberry Play-(but meant for work)book that no one is allowed to touch or use at this point in case they notice how unready it is for the real world.

Meanwhile Apple keeps selling 'em as fast as they can make 'em and the Christmas season is there for the plucking. Amazing failure by the competition.

 

[Azathoth]

I still cannot understand the smaller-size iPad concept. Why? As an iPhone owner, I've yet to justify the need for an iPad, so I'm sure a smaller iPad will be less enticing.

Do I think they're cool, practical, fun, and appealing? ABSOLUTELY. However, having a very portable 13" MPB at home eliminates the need for an iPad when I'm there (I'll always prefer to use OS X vs iOS, when possible) and when I'm on the go, the few sites, games, and emails I like to keep up with, my phone does the trick perfectly (isn't that the very reason I paid premium price for the device PLUS AT&T's outrageous monthly fees?). I feel owning an iPad would sort of defeat the WHOLE PURPOSE of owning the iPhone.

Perhaps if I had an iMac I'd be tempted to get the iPad, for its portability, since I wouldn't always want to be confined at a desk, and the phone's screen size is obviously not gonna cut it for hours' worth of web-browsing.

With that said, I fail to see who the 7" caters to. I think it would cannibalize on the iPod Touch's sales. But we'll see. Many of us often question Apple's decisions and later have to eat our words. Perhaps this'll be a genius move.

I completely agree with this - of course there are situtations in which the iPad would be the most conveniet, but 7 or 10" - neither fits into a pocket.

Conside this analogy:
It's a bit like my photography hobby - sure I have about 7-8 lenses (many primes), because for some situations one is "just right" and a pro zoom lens is just too big and heavy, even though, in most cases it would get the same shot as my 21/3.2, 35/2, 40/2.8, 50/1.4 or 77/1.8 lenses. The zoom is like a MBP, the primes are iPhone, iPad, iPod etc - each has a niche, but there's nothing "magical" about them. Note how most pros use a 28-70/2.8 zoom, the "artists" and hobbyists can mess around with putting on just the right lens, the pro has a 28-70 and a second body with a 70-200 slapped around their neck and gets on with business...

 

[gnasher729]

So the supplier expects sales to keep up huh? They also expect to get orders for different dimensions huh? Considering Apple old sold 3 million yet ordered 13 million, looks like it might be a while before we see any new ipads, let alone resizing. They still gotta sell another 10 million of them, and don't have a product launch to help boost sales. I wouldn't put too much in the speculations and expectations of the supplier...

i think you didn't quite understand the numbers. The three million that Apple sold were sold in the first 80 days. They were sold before end of June. Sales were limited by not enough availability, and by not selling into many markets. Since then the rate of sales has gone up. Estimated six millions _have_ been sold in the three months from July to September. And the next three months include the Christmas season, so I don't expect sales to drop down. (And whatever Apple has ordered, the report didn't say, they ordered 6 million for the third quarter and 7 million for the fourth, these numbers do _not_ include the three million sold in the second quarter of the calendar year).

 

[wizard]

I'm not sure why something this simple is so hard for some to understand.

I still cannot understand the smaller-size iPad concept. Why? As an iPhone owner, I've yet to justify the need for an iPad, so I'm sure a smaller iPad will be less enticing.

I really don't know what the problem is here, a smaller iPad is obviously not for you. Rather it is for people that find iPad in its current size to be to big. This is not rocket science people and frankly is no different than Amazon making two different sized Kindles.

Do I think they're cool, practical, fun, and appealing? ABSOLUTELY. However, having a very portable 13" MPB at home eliminates the need for an iPad when I'm there (I'll always prefer to use OS X vs iOS, when possible) and when I'm on the go, the few sites, games, and emails I like to keep up with, my phone does the trick perfectly (isn't that the very reason I paid premium price for the device PLUS AT&T's outrageous monthly fees?). I feel owning an iPad would sort of defeat the WHOLE PURPOSE of owning the iPhone.

Great for you! However you have to realize that other approach life differently. Further iPhone is a smart phone and hardly works as a substitute for a laptop or even a tablet. By its very nature it is a highly compromised computing device.

Perhaps if I had an iMac I'd be tempted to get the iPad, for its portability, since I wouldn't always want to be confined at a desk, and the phone's screen size is obviously not gonna cut it for hours' worth of web-browsing.

I can actually see people moving back to desktops because of iPad. Laptops are a compromise in and of them selves if you don't really need the portability.

With that said, I fail to see who the 7" caters to. I think it would cannibalize on the iPod Touch's sales. But we'll see. Many of us often question Apple's decisions and later have to eat our words. Perhaps this'll be a genius move.

There is no such thing as cannabilization of your own products, you either fill gaps you have or sombody else will. Besides you just implied there is a market for such a device. On the otherhand you also implied that you don't understand the market for the Touch so I guess understanding the need for the 7" iPad will be a bit difficult.

Frankly this is no different than the GPS market with those devices in every size you can imagine. Why, to serve different needs! A truckers needs differ from a hikers and bother differ in respect to somebodies mom.

 

[wizard]

Bogus maybe, but not for your reasons.

This “report” is obviously bogus. 128 GB and retina display disqualifies it.
And since all 7" reports so far have been nonsense, it seems rather unlikely it will happen.

First 128 GB would be easy especially considering how they are charging huge bucks for a tiny increase in available Flash storage. 8GB is like $8 these days, yes the denser chips cost a little more but the point remains Apple can easily cover the cost of more flash at the current pricing levels. Besides in August at least one flash supplier announced much higher density flash modules. Even Intel is getting ready to launch higher density SSD's.

As to higher density LCD's that is a no brainer. The big issue isn't the LCD but rather the GPU.

 

[NT1440]

First 128 GB would be easy especially considering how they are charging huge bucks for a tiny increase in available Flash storage. 8GB is like $8 these days, yes the denser chips cost a little more but the point remains Apple can easily cover the cost of more flash at the current pricing levels. Besides in August at least one flash supplier announced much higher density flash modules. Even Intel is getting ready to launch higher density SSD's.

As to higher density LCD's that is a no brainer. The big issue isn't the LCD but rather the GPU.

You do realize that currently the Flash memory market is essentially tapped out right? Way more demand than capacity.

 

[lilcosco08]

>The new iPad will also include the high-resolution "Retina" display that the latest version of the iPhone (4) boasts, a micro or mini USB port, a camera and greater capacity of up to 128 gigabytes.
>The new iPad will also include the high-resolution "Retina" display that the latest version of the iPhone (4) boasts
>The new iPad will also include the high-resolution "Retina" display
>"Retina" display

 

[wizard]

You are the one that needs to get your head striaght!

And you remind me of those jock heads who can't understand anything that doesn't involve dumbbells. 3 extra pounds on a laptop is a serious thing! Who wants to carry that around? We're not discussing physical fitness or whether it's POSSIBLE to carry such a thing - it's just not convenient or desirable.

Go back to pumping weights and shooting 'roids. Stick with what you know.

It is one thing to be disabled due to accident or birth defect, it is an entirely different thing to be disabled due neglect of ones body. Frankly it is a serious issue impacting our country right now. The disrespect you spew above demonstrates that you and people with your attitude, are a big problem. Frankly high health costs are your responsibility.

 

[wizard]

I'm not sure where you got that information, it doesn't reflect what I'm hearing.

You do realize that currently the Flash memory market is essentially tapped out right? Way more demand than capacity.

Nope not the case based on the info I have.

Prices are still falling or at least stable.

The industry is transitioning to smalker geometries with many manufactures now ramping up 22 to 28nm production.

Densities and prices have adjusted such that a whole new round of SSD's are coming to the market. Intel has its sights set on 600GB SSD's in part due to those new higher density lower cost Flash chips.

In general the price of SSD's is dropping as is the price of other Flash based storage devices.

The rather stiff extra charge that Apple attaches to the price of iPads with more memory don't reflect the actual cost of that incremental increase in storage

In any event all the info is out there and it all indicates cheaper flash storage. The fact is flash has to get cheaper to hold its own against magnetic drives and grow share. Plus it needs to keep new solid state technologies from gaining a foothold.

 

[Lesser Evets]

... I thought this iPad was going to be a complete flop. People screamed about how useless and unwanted the device would be. NO ONE wants to use such things because hands are too dirty. It doesn't have the power to create a realistic 3D CGI commercial while surfing the web and publishing art brochures while gaming in articulated 3D environs.

If Apple just boosts the device a tiny bit and expands capability just a little bit and perhaps figures a way to get it to stand alone and have external storage in the base, I believe Apple has the killer all-in-one computer for the overwhelming majority of the market.

A super-success beyond what the current computer makers can imagine.

 

[tripjammer]

I don't beleive the 7" iPad rumors either.

The only way they might produce a smaller version is as a dedicated e-reader to compete with Sony and Kindle, then position the 9.7" original for taking over from where the netbook computer is now. But even this doesn't make sense, since the original 9.7" is already outcompeting the Sony and Kindle as e-readers.

Any way you slice it, a 7" iPad makes no sense without it cannabilizing iPods as well as the original iPad.

the Ipod is 3.5 inches
The Ipad is 9.7 inches
The Ipad 2 will be 9.7 inches and 7 inches...this fits in the lineup.

Apple should do go ahead and make all Ipad 2's wifi\3G\4G
Dual cameras...2mp on the front and 5mp on the rear with 720P HD recording. 1080p is overrated in a mobile device.
Add a HDMI port....(it already exists in the AppleTv 2) and maybe a SD card slot...and sell it in 16gb\32gb\64gb\128gb versions

Predicted pricing
7 inch Ipad 2
16gb $299
32gb $399
64gb $499
128GB $599


9.7 inch Ipad 2
32gb $499
64gb $599
128GB $699

 

[Wiesenlooser]

With that said, I fail to see who the 7" caters to. I think it would cannibalize on the iPod Touch's sales. But we'll see. Many of us often question Apple's decisions and later have to eat our words. Perhaps this'll be a genius move.

This is one of the stupidest things I've ever heard.

How can a product cannibalize a cheaper product? I mean why wouldn't Apple want people to buy a more expensive iPad instead of an iPod Touch?

That's like saying the iPhone could cannibalize the iPod Touch's sales...

 

[sk58781111]

Apple, in contrast, has been preaching resolution independence for years. There's more work involved in creating art work for your app that will vary depending on which platform it gets run on, but the code is fairly straightforward. XCode makes it quite straightforward to change the output of your app. Just tell the UI what device it will run on, and you get an executable suitable for that device. So some extra work, yes, but the framework is already there to handle multiple resolutions and devices.

If the code is straightforward, then why are different screen sizes such a big problem/issue for developers?

 

[NebulaClash]

If the code is straightforward, then why are different screen sizes such a big problem/issue for developers?

Some devs don't listen. Or they are lazy. Or the idea of a little extra work that will yield millions of extra customers bothers them and they want Apple to just make their lives easy.