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Computers 4 years from now

Vinnie_vw said:
In four years:
the war in Iraq will still be going on (how did that slip in there?)
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Despite the fact that this was probably meant as a joke, I think there is a lot of truth in it. If no in Iraq, then somewhere else in the Middle East.

Unfortunately, I have to say that of everything else that you said, I have to disagree with a lot of it.

And in terms of the Tech Singularity, assuming Moore's Law holds true for another 50 years based on a 2 year cycle (I believe the real law is 18 months?), computers will double their speed 25 times.

2^25 = 2^5 * 2^10 *2^10 = 32*1024*1024 = over 30 million.

What does that mean? It means that something that takes todays computers a whole non-stop year to solve, a computer in 50 years time will solve in about a second.
 
Erasmus said:
And in terms of the Tech Singularity, assuming Moore's Law holds true for another 50 years based on a 2 year cycle (I believe the real law is 18 months?), computers will double their speed 25 times.

2^25 = 2^5 * 2^10 *2^10 = 32*1024*1024 = over 30 million.

What does that mean? It means that something that takes todays computers a whole non-stop year to solve, a computer in 50 years time will solve in about a second.
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Moore's Law referred to the number of transistors on an IC, and two years was the original. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law)

We're delving deep into near-quantum effects when is comes to how fast things can go, simply because of the space/heat/power/conductivity restrictions placed on us by materials physics. MPP is going to be the predominant means for rapidly solving complex problems, but linear computations will be limited by dumb old physics.

I want quantum computers and bubble memory!!!
 
Erasmus said:
Despite the fact that this was probably meant as a joke, I think there is a lot of truth in it. If no in Iraq, then somewhere else in the Middle East.
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Actually, that part wasn't meant as a joke.

And as far as Moore's law is concerned, Moore himself has dismissed it. But there is no doubt that processing-power will go up infinity+1 of course.

My "predictions" are not baseless, no matter how they sound. The fact that Linux is on the rise and Dell is adopting it, leads me to believe that this may be a way they will try to go head to head with Apple. And Linux being free, there is of course the question of whether software, least OS-software, should cost anything. And the question is where Microsoft will be in all this.

Virtualisation is an amazing technology and it's pretty incredible that people can now launch any app within OSX. This is so substantial that it is forseeable that this trend continues up to a point that people no longer feel tied to an OS, rather hardware that enables them to run any app. I.E. the OS-war becomes irrelevant.

With technologies like Adobe's Apollo, and of course this whole Ajax-hype, etc., it's not unforseeable that we will be moving towards OS-independant web-apps.

In any case, I hold a lot of credit towards that OS's are limited in their ways to innovate more and that perhaps there will be little to be done after Leopard comes out. What matters then is the way we interface with the software, hardware-wise, and cost. Again, Microsoft's role in this game is something I question, as the pressure will be more on hardware-makers.

This could of course take much longer than 4 years, no doubt. And as far as my flash- and touchscreen-predictions are concerned, I admit that those are pretty meaningless.
 
I don't think we'll get anywhere near that. Global crisis such as drought and mass migration, war and other things looming in this century will make computing redundant.

Just felt like adding it. I depress my girlfriend sometimes... :rolleyes:
 
koobcamuk said:
I don't think we'll get anywhere near that. Global crisis such as drought and mass migration, war and other things looming in this century will make computing redundant.

Just felt like adding it. I depress my girlfriend sometimes... :rolleyes:
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Uhuh. You depress ME. People set such low expectations for the future. My philosophy is, I might as well enjoy life now believing the future will be great, because if it's not, chances are I won't be around for long to be disappointed...

In my opinion, Moore's law is good for a long, long time yet. Silicon seems to be good for at least another half decade, (to your 4 year limit, at least), and then there's using Carbon, which could easily provide an extra half decade or longer of The Law. That should bring us nicely into the decade 2020-2030, when Quantum Computing will really hit it off. And guess what? One of the things Quantum Computers are really good at is designing other Quantum Computers... Self evolving computers, anyone?
 
Erasmus said:
Uhuh. You depress ME. People set such low expectations for the future. My philosophy is, I might as well enjoy life now believing the future will be great, because if it's not, chances are I won't be around for long to be disappointed...
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Dude, you're in Australia! When I live there I am sure I will be happy. Here in England, the weather is making my mood!

We should have left all the crimms here and gone to Australia ourselves. God knows what people here were thinking.
 
koobcamuk said:
Dude, you're in Australia! When I live there I am sure I will be happy. Here in England, the weather is making my mood!

We should have left all the crimms here and gone to Australia ourselves. God knows what people here were thinking.
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HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

No words can describe how funny that is!!!
 
About four years ago, between January and June 2003, the most powerful Mac was:

The one I'm currently using at home. Stock? Dual 1.42 G4, 512mb RAM, 120gb HDD, 167mhz bus speed, superdrive...

Kinda comparable to a Mini now. So in four years time, based on arbitrary projections and wishful thinking, look forward to the equivalent of the Octo-Mac in a Mac Mini albeit with a Bluray drive. :D
 
"But here is the thing I have heard that leopard will be the last os x. People have said that next is os 11."

osx is supposed to be the mac os underpinnings for about 10 years and now tiger (and soon leopard are out) apple have said updates will be fewer and further between, the 1st 4 were fast releases to get a brand new os up to spec, i HOPE apple have been working behind the scenes this time and we dont see a repeat of the copland buisness, they must have learnt a lesson there, not many other OS's worth buying up to replace osx this time lol
 
Dunno but whatever's out I'll still be using my G4 cube as my main desktop, I'm aiming for a decades use before I put the thing in the attic.

For comparisons sake 4 years after I bought my 500MHz G4 cube the quad G5 was released which was about 50x as fast theoretically (50Gflops Vs 1Gflop)
 
I'm still using the computer I had almost 4 years ago - a 1.25GHz iMac I bought in November of 2003.

As for what computers will look like in 4 years, my prediction is that they will look vaguely like a wedge of cheese and use a touch screen interface. Other than that, I'm a little fuzzy.
 
you can judge the future by the past....

think of 4 years ago! put that data in 4 yrs into the future...computers will be amazing.

I predict they will be unbelievable communication and media centers like never before.



also i understand 10.5 is the last OSX
 
capone2 said:
think of 4 years ago! put that data in 4 yrs into the future...computers will be amazing.

I predict they will be unbelievable communication and media centers like never before.



also i understand 10.5 is the last OSX
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Is 10.5 really the last OSX? What will be after it then..?
 
ChrisA said:
Why can't you have a Mac sooner? Get a job. Used G4 PowerMacs start at about $150. Assuming a minimum wage, part time job you'd have $150 in less then one month.

Back to your question....
Look back four years. I expect about the same amount of change in the next four years as in the last. Basically faster processors and small incremental changes to the software. In four years the number of cores may double. So four will be common and 16 will be at the very high end.

I think the screen resolutions will immprove too. What this really means is sharper text in the small point sizes.

A few more applications will be web based

I expect Apple to release OS upgrades on about a 2 or 2.5 year cycle so you could buy whatever comes after Leopard or (just maybe) the one after that. But look for only incremental changes.

I'm sure in four years Apple will have expanded their iPhone line and will have general purpose computers in that sub-compact size

Vista service pack 2 will be out.
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Oooh, you beat me to it. I was going to go back 4 years (which is how old my iMac is) and extrapolate forward. I really doubt there will be any radically different technologies presented by Apple but I would expect that Apple will continue to move forward into different areas. Re: iTV; iPhone... Hybrid drives may be standard on all mb/mbps, the iPod will do more than it currently does now with more storage space available; the iPhone will feature more connectivity than it now (or will) have, the iMac may have come with 24", 30", and 32" screens at the same price point they are currently in, 1 tb of HDD will be the minimum on a standard Mac, iTV will do more, etc It really is difficult to say because what radical technologies will come forward but probably most of the above will come true. None of what i say is radical, its just natural progression of the technologies they currently employ. However, Apple may come out with something VERY radical and different. They may do away with the iMac line and replace with some sort of enhanced iTV; or they may develop a gaming console; or radically change the way email is delivered. Who really knows. Its a pretty safe bet though, that the computer you buy today will be useful in 4 years.
 
Erasmus said:
Expect at least multicore GPUs,
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GPUs are already massively parallel, so that would be kind of pointless, I would think. Just add more pipes like they've been doing all along.

if not GPUs and CPUs integrated together.
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Yep, that's pretty likely.

Expect a blu-ray or HD-DVD burner.
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By then we might see HVD instead....

oober_freak said:
In four years, Ballmer will throw 1143 more chairs at his programmers.
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I dunno, that's an awfully lowball number, isn't it? At least 3786, I'm guessing. I mean, we are talking 4 whole years after all.

capone2 said:
also i understand 10.5 is the last OSX
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You understand wrong.

--Eric
 
Eric5h5 said:
GPUs are already massively parallel, so that would be kind of pointless, I would think. Just add more pipes like they've been doing all along.



Yep, that's pretty likely.



By then we might see HVD instead....



I dunno, that's an awfully lowball number, isn't it? At least 3786, I'm guessing. I mean, we are talking 4 whole years after all.



You understand wrong.

--Eric
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i don't thinks so, i was told by people in tech,that OSX will have 6 versions and .5 is the last. its been in magazines, on websites over the past 3 yrs.
 
MagicWok said:
In four years time, they better have those Hover Boards on the market, from Back to the Future 2!!! :mad::p
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No no, we have to wait 8 more years until 2015. Did any of you hear the rumor growing up (~92) that they made the hoverboard, but it was too dangerous, and they pulled it from toys r us?

As for macs, probably more of the same but faster! Which is good. We will get maybe 2 new complete redesigns of the entire product line. iMac and MBP are next in line. Then Mac Pro, then macbook
 
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