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Computers 4 years from now

Hardware: There will be no reason for an individual to own a desktop. Laptops will have more power and capacity than anyone except pros and tinkerers need. Unless you're running MS Bloatware.

O/S: You tell me the status of Linux and I'll tell you the status of the the O/S.
 
dmaxdmax said:
Hardware: There will be no reason for an individual to own a desktop. Laptops will have more power and capacity than anyone except pros and tinkerers need. Unless you're running MS Bloatware.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's true, just because it's never been true in the past. The bar is constantly raised for consumer applications just as it is for pro applications. For example, just by virtue of more people running HD video and using HD camcorders, editing and sorting pictures from 10+ MP cameras, and using 24" + screens, more speed will be necessary. Throw in eye candy, internet applications (demanding more browser complexity), etc...
 
emw said:
I'm still using the computer I had almost 4 years ago - a 1.25GHz iMac I bought in November of 2003.
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I'm using my computer from 4 years ago... and it's a Windows!! Curse my un-knowledged parent's who didn't buy a Mac (Well, my Mother. My Dad has an iBook and an iMac G3... but he lives in Poland)... Now I am cursed with this retched piece of below-budget junk until I can afford an iMac :mad:

But, um, yeah... the future... umm... iMacs that are paper thin? I have no idea, lol.

Edit: I've had a serious idea! HD iSight cameras!
 
miloblithe said:
I don't think that's true, just because it's never been true in the past. The bar is constantly raised for consumer applications just as it is for pro applications. For example, just by virtue of more people running HD video and using HD camcorders, editing and sorting pictures from 10+ MP cameras, and using 24" + screens, more speed will be necessary. Throw in eye candy, internet applications (demanding more browser complexity), etc...
Click to expand...

If I can find a coin I'll figure which of us is right ;)

Your point is good but a MBP w/external monitor can handle what you describe though it certainly wouldn't be the tool of choice for Pro Apps. Final Cut Studio 2011 will cry for a desktop but I'm thinking of the average to above average user who makes do with FC Express and the like.

Come to think of it, this C2D MB is doing everything you describe (consumer level, iMovie not FCS, iPhoto not Photoshop). In iMovie, HD capture is in real time and rendering isn't speedy but it isn't bad either. And this is a borrowed machine w/1 whole Gig of RAM. I suspect that my soon-to-be-aquired MBP w/2 Gig will be fine for any consumer level app. Please tell me if I'm wrong.

Now if I can only find that coin....
 
BlakTornado said:
Edit: I've had a serious idea! HD iSight cameras!
Click to expand...

Nah...the broadband connections in the U.S. still won't be able to support HD video conferencing in four years. :p

I think that web-based apps will gain some traction, but they'll never take over completely. The OS will always be relevant.
 
Its hardly even worth talking about, we simply don't know. 4 years in computer land is a LONG TIME.

How many people in 2001, though in 2005, Apple be reading a switch to Intel, and control the digitial music player market?

But the inner nerd inside me gets all happy when I think of the possblitys!
 
capone2 said:
i don't thinks so, i was told by people in tech,that OSX will have 6 versions and .5 is the last. its been in magazines, on websites over the past 3 yrs.
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...show us then... Apple still have Lynx and Cougar as trademarks. that takes it upto 10.7
 
capone2 said:
i don't thinks so, i was told by people in tech,that OSX will have 6 versions and .5 is the last. its been in magazines, on websites over the past 3 yrs.
Click to expand...

Strange how I somehow missed out on all that, then. :rolleyes: I bet you $10 that 10.5 is not the last. :)

--Eric
 
dmaxdmax said:
If I can find a coin I'll figure which of us is right ;)

Your point is good but a MBP w/external monitor can handle what you describe though it certainly wouldn't be the tool of choice for Pro Apps. Final Cut Studio 2011 will cry for a desktop but I'm thinking of the average to above average user who makes do with FC Express and the like.

Come to think of it, this C2D MB is doing everything you describe (consumer level, iMovie not FCS, iPhoto not Photoshop). In iMovie, HD capture is in real time and rendering isn't speedy but it isn't bad either. And this is a borrowed machine w/1 whole Gig of RAM. I suspect that my soon-to-be-aquired MBP w/2 Gig will be fine for any consumer level app. Please tell me if I'm wrong.

Now if I can only find that coin....
Click to expand...

No, I guess you're not wrong. I'll have to strengthen my point! Another aspect is price though. If a desktop plus monitor remains cheaper, it'll still be the better option for lots of people. Or compare the iMacs to MacBook Pros.
 
miloblithe said:
Another aspect is price though. If a desktop plus monitor remains cheaper, it'll still be the better option for lots of people. Or compare the iMacs to MacBook Pros.
Click to expand...

I'll concede on this. eMachines is proof that for many people, cost trumps every other factor.

It wouldn't have occurred to me to put forward the laptop argument at all except I've been borrowing this MB and can't imagine being tethered to a desk anymore. I was convinced I'd be getting a 24" iMac but that was then...
 
capone2 said:
i don't thinks so, i was told by people in tech,that OSX will have 6 versions and .5 is the last. its been in magazines, on websites over the past 3 yrs.
Click to expand...

It's all speculation by analysts and other industry people. Nobody knows for certain how many versions of OS X Apple will release -- not even Apple themselves, I'd wager. Because they can always change their minds at the last minute. :)
 
yeah,

szark said:
It's all speculation by analysts and other industry people. Nobody knows for certain how many versions of OS X Apple will release -- not even Apple themselves, I'd wager. Because they can always change their minds at the last minute. :)
Click to expand...

very good point! by all but somehow i believe it. think about it its already 6 years old by the time leopard becomes 5.9 it will be like 8 years old right ? it make sense at that point to move on to OS11 or whatever ?
 
capone2 said:
very good point! by all but somehow i believe it. think about it its already 6 years old by the time leopard becomes 5.9 it will be like 8 years old right ? it make sense at that point to move on to OS11 or whatever ?
Click to expand...

My uneducated thought is that Apple will be slow to leave OS-X since the startdate isn't 10.0 so much as it's 10 w/Intel. How many years was it from System 7 to OS-X? From this user/software buyer's perspective there wasn't much change from 7 to 8 to 9. It was 6 to 7 and 9 to X that were huge. They've spent a lot of time and effort to establish OS-X as a brand that they won't leave it easily.

I think MS's only hope is to form a new OS team, put them in a fortress somewhere far from Redmond, cut the phone lines and have them build a new OS that doesn't have legacy DOS elements. They have more than enough cash and tons of failures to learn from. I doubt very very much they have executives with the intestinal fortitude to try.
 
capone2 said:
very good point! by all but somehow i believe it. think about it its already 6 years old by the time leopard becomes 5.9 it will be like 8 years old right ? it make sense at that point to move on to OS11 or whatever ?
Click to expand...

OSX sounds good, you can bet your ass Apple is going to hold on to this name as long as they can! :D

OSXI, wierd!
 
dmaxdmax said:
Hardware: There will be no reason for an individual to own a desktop. Laptops will have more power and capacity than anyone except pros and tinkerers need. Unless you're running MS Bloatware.

O/S: You tell me the status of Linux and I'll tell you the status of the the O/S.
Click to expand...

I agree to a certain extent.

It is going to take a LONG time for desktops to go away. Batteries aren't powerful enough, and the current laptops aren't fast enough yet to replace a desktop.

We should all know that the future of computing is in laptops, Steve said it himself.
 
capone2 said:
think about it its already 6 years old by the time leopard becomes 5.9 it will be like 8 years old right ? it make sense at that point to move on to OS11 or whatever ?
Click to expand...

I don't think so. Steve Jobs said something about having OS X for the next 20 years at one of his keynotes, didn't he? Besides, OS X is the name of the OS. It's not really a version number, like System 6, System 7, etc. were. We have the point releases for the version numbers now. Ditching OS X would be sort of like Microsoft saying that they've used Windows for long enough, and now it's time to move onto Doors.

--Eric
 
BSL4 Guy said:
It's better not to waste time worrying about names.

Whether it's 10.6, 10.7, or 11.x when you finally get your Mac, it will still be the Mac OS, and the Apple will still appear on the screen at startup (although I miss happy Mac).
Click to expand...

There are two big reasons for changing the basic name
1. to market the basic change in the OS.
2. to get out of a contract that was made with the old name.

(Apple has used both reasons)
 
Howard Brazee said:
There are two big reasons for changing the basic name
1. to market the basic change in the OS.
2. to get out of a contract that was made with the old name.

(Apple has used both reasons)
Click to expand...

I understand the marketing strategy, but I'm fuzzy on your latter point.
Why is Apple contracturally obligated to use a given name? And with whom, the German military?
 
dmaxdmax said:
I'll concede on this. eMachines is proof that for many people, cost trumps every other factor.

It wouldn't have occurred to me to put forward the laptop argument at all except I've been borrowing this MB and can't imagine being tethered to a desk anymore. I was convinced I'd be getting a 24" iMac but that was then...
Click to expand...

A desktop can always have a larger screen. Have you ever used Final Cut? It's un-usable on a 17 inch screen. You can't even read the labels on the controls.

Also there is basic ergonomics. Look at the recommended placements of the screen and keyboard. You can't get them right unless you detach them.

Kids don't care, they still have good eyesight and their wrists, necks and backs can still deal with poor ergonomics But for anyone who works 8 or 10 hours on a computers or is closer to 50 than 20 the desktop machine will be best. Of course that could be a folded up notebook with wireless keyboard and 24" LCD.

In the ideal world of the far future we will not need to own computers. All our software will be web based and all our data will live out there on the 'net too. So you can then walk up to any random computer, log in and have your desktop appear right there. They will be so cheap that the people who offer the web based services will give you a computer if you sign up - like they do with cell phones now.
 
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