Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread

[bradl]

New report out of Isreal (where they have done a lot of testing of their COVID vaccinations):

• Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain, according to a new report from the country’s Health Ministry.

😨😵

I get that the vaccines are supposed to help prevent the most major effects of the virus, but an efficacy rate of 39% when it comes to preventing the Delta variant, let alone any effects of the Delta variant? Holy smeg that is not good.

• The two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness, according to the Israeli data.

This makes sense, yes. But as you say:

If 60% of vaccinated people can get and assumedly infect the unvaccinated, the unvaccinated are in for a lot of trouble.

Agreed. If the unvaccinated that are waiting for numbers and real data from people they can't claim as tainted or biased, then this data should show everything that they need to know, and forget about all claims of it being a hoax.

And personally, 88% effectiveness is low enough for me to mask indoors for a long time...

No doubt. My family hasn't stopped masking, because while the US is basically on the honor system, we're taking our advice from a rather highly popular former conservative POTUS:

Trust, but verify.

Until we can see proof that those around us are truly vaccinated, then it will be hard to trust them, as we have already seen proof of people claiming to being vaccinated, but when called out on it, finding out that they haven't, or have been using faked vaccination cards to get around taking the vaccine.

EDIT: Watch the video in the link above too. Dr Scott Gottlieb says some of the Isreali data is showing for older people who got vaccinated early, severe illness protection may be dropping and now below 80%.

This brings up two possible issues: either the vaccines' efficacy against the Delta variant is dropping over a period of time, making it more susceptible to not being able to protect...

.. or even the Delta variant is learning and mutating to fight against the vaccine as well. If this is true, then we're playing a viral game of Fix-it Felix, Jr., in having to fix every vaccinated window the virus breaks.

BL.

 

[pshufd]

New report out of Isreal (where they have done a lot of testing of their COVID vaccinations):

• Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain, according to a new report from the country’s Health Ministry.
• The two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness, according to the Israeli data.

If 60% of vaccinated people can get and assumedly infect the unvaccinated, the unvaccinated are in for a lot of trouble.

And personally, 88% effectiveness is low enough for me to mask indoors for a long time...

EDIT: Watch the video in the link above too. Dr Scott Gottlieb says some of the Isreali data is showing for older people who got vaccinated early, severe illness protection may be dropping and now below 80%.

Expletive.

 

[44267547]

To me, the ‘39%’ figure from the Israel study mean nothing in terms of the intelligence of the Delta variant of how it chooses to affect everybody differently. What we do know, even if you were to become infected with the Delta variant, it’s still very much possible someone might experience minor symptoms to mild or be completely asymptomatic if you are fully vaccinated. The key here, is to make sure you’re _fully_ vaccinated. It just baffles me for those who don’t complete the vaccine series and stop at the first inoculation, which is something that appears to be a trend.

 

[pshufd]

To me, the ‘39%’ figure from the Israel study mean nothing in terms of the intelligence of the Delta variant of how it chooses to affect everybody differently. What we do know, even if you were to become infected with the Delta variant, it’s still very much possible someone might experience minor symptoms to mild or be completely asymptomatic if you are fully vaccinated. The key here, is to make sure you’re _fully_ vaccinated. It just baffles me for those who don’t complete the vaccine series and stop at the first inoculation, which is something that appears to be a trend.

I have a friend who got his first vaccination this past week. He's a stage 4 cancer patient and had to wait though his treatment to get vaccinated.

My mother is 99 and has a history of allergic reactions to vaccines. She would not survive COVID but it's not clear that she would survive the vaccine if she had an adverse reaction either. So we provide her with what she needs. We are all vaccinated of course but a breakthrough infecting us and then infecting her would likely kill her.

The vaccine isn't approved for children.

So you have people, that for one reason or another, can't get vaccinated. It is incumbent on everyone else, though, to get vaccinated.

This stuff about "mild disease" means nothing if you have to care for someone that can't get vaccinated. That category includes parents of kids under 12 and it's a lot of people.

 

[Falhófnir]

I was reading the Israel data also suggested the Pfizer effectiveness fades quite quickly, so that might be why it’s as low as 39% by now, that in combination with any new strains does sound like a recipe for disaster, which is why I definitely still support continuing with at least the low intrusiveness measures like basic 1m+ social distancing and masks indoors for the meantime. I think we’re wrongly looking on vaccines as a silver bullet allowing for a total return to normality, rather than one block in a containment wall until the virus has run out of ways to evolve. This might end up being a war of attrition…

 

[pshufd]

Wore a mask at the gym this morning. It was a minor nuisance but I think that this is going to be the trend. I was the only person wearing a mask. I will wear a mask while shopping tomorrow and go back to using the hand sanitizer in the car more.

The number of cases in my town has risen to 5 which may not sound bad but this thing can spread really fast with people doing normal things.

 

[iluvmacs99]

Let's take the Israel study and put it into some context, because 39% is just an "average" number and we need to take that "average" number and compare with another similar number, which was actually done in the UK. In the UK, a similar study was done and the only discrepancy was that with Israel, it was just 39% effective of preventing infection, but in the UK, it is 88% for Pfizer! Every other number such as preventing hospitalizations and severe symptoms are similar; roughly 80% and up. So you're at a better place vaccinated than unvaccinated.

And this has significant implication in the United States for vaccinated and unvaccinated citizens, but not Canada.

So why did the same vaccine such as Pfizer lost its efficacy so quickly compared to the UK? Well it has to do with how Israel administered the vaccine to its people. In Israel, the gap between the primer dose (1st dose) and the booster dose (2nd dose) was 3 weeks. United States of America also followed the same 3 weeks gap. Whereas the UK and also in Canada, the gap between the primer dose (1st dose) and the booster dose (2nd dose ) is 8-12 weeks! Many studies had shown that with the gap of 8-12 weeks in between doses, the long lasting efficacy extended further; much further than the Pfizer recommendation in preventing the Delta variant infection. In fact 8-10 weeks is the sweet spot for the vaccine approved in Canada; so it takes roughly 3 months to fully vaccinate someone against COVID and it is all about the timing of the vaccine administration.

 

[44267547]

Let's take the Israel study and put it into some context, because 39% is just an "average" number and we need to take that "average" number and compare with another similar number, which was actually done in the UK. In the UK, a similar study was done and the only discrepancy was that with Israel, it was just 39% effective of preventing infection, but in the UK, it is 88% for Pfizer! Every other number such as preventing hospitalizations and severe symptoms are similar; roughly 80% and up. So you're at a better place vaccinated than unvaccinated.

And this has significant implication in the United States for vaccinated and unvaccinated citizens, but not Canada.

So why did the same vaccine such as Pfizer lost its efficacy so quickly compared to the UK? Well it has to do with how Israel administered the vaccine to its people. In Israel, the gap between the primer dose (1st dose) and the booster dose (2nd dose) was 3 weeks. United States of America also followed the same 3 weeks gap. Whereas the UK and also in Canada, the gap between the primer dose (1st dose) and the booster dose (2nd dose ) is 8-12 weeks! Many studies had shown that with the gap of 8-12 weeks in between doses, the long lasting efficacy extended further; much further than the Pfizer recommendation in preventing the Delta variant infection. In fact 8-10 weeks is the sweet spot for the vaccine approved in Canada; so it takes roughly 3 months to fully vaccinate someone against COVID and it is all about the timing of the vaccine administration.

Really interesting read.

I will say however, aside from the Delta variant, we can all agree that being fully vaccinated puts you in a much safer spot than unvaccinated, regardless of the vaccine date stamp inoculations. And if someone were to contract the Delta variant, the main relief is it would likely prevent hospitalization and severe effects. I think that’s the main take away from those fully vaccinated, anyone can still catch the Delta variant or even the Alpha, but it should prevent any long-term detrimental effects to your body and being hospitalized.

 

[poorcody]

Another article in The NY Times this morning regarding booster shots. Some points I found interesting:

• "[Pfizer] said that early data from its booster study showed the level of neutralizing antibodies among clinical trial participants who received a third dose six months after the second was five to 10 times as high as among two-dose recipients."
• "Senior officials now say they expect that people who are 65 and older or who have compromised immune systems will most likely need a third shot from Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna, [...] That is a sharp shift from just a few weeks ago, when the administration said it thought there was not enough evidence to back boosters yet.
• "...if the F.D.A. fully licenses a vaccine, doctors would have vastly more leeway to prescribe a booster for their patients. Some health experts expect that Pfizer could receive that approval by this fall."
• "...an infectious disease expert with Massachusetts General Hospital, told the panel that some patients, especially those who are more educated or “empowered to take care of their own health care,” are managing to get a third dose on their own, despite the lack of a green light from the government."

 

[pshufd]

Another article in The NY Times this morning regarding booster shots. Some points I found interesting:

• "...an infectious disease expert with Massachusetts General Hospital, told the panel that some patients, especially those who are more educated or “empowered to take care of their own health care,” are managing to get a third dose on their own, despite the lack of a green light from the government."

Two of my hospitals are affiliated with Mass General. One, or maybe both, invited me to get shots there a few months ago. The vaccination databases are at the state level so I'd just need to go out of state to get another one. MGH has been giving out vaccinations for quite some time.

I don't really think that you have to be educated to figure out how to get a third shot. I have an appointment with my oncologist in three weeks and I'll ask his opinion on a third shot. I'm sure he will be getting asked about it, and his institution, Dana Farber Cancer Institute would likely have a lot of leeway in giving out a third dose without going around state rules.

 

[poorcody]

I don't really think that you have to be educated to figure out how to get a third shot. I have an appointment with my oncologist in three weeks and I'll ask his opinion on a third shot. I'm sure he will be getting asked about it, and his institution, Dana Farber Cancer Institute would likely have a lot of leeway in giving out a third dose without going around state rules.

I think the point of the article was that people who have looked at the data have already decided that a third shot is a wise thing to do. Also, once the vaccinations are officially approved (versus their current "Emergency Use" status), a doctor would be allowed to "prescribe" a third shot regardless of current policy, whereas now, getting it would involve circumventing current regulations.

 

[pshufd]

I think the point of the article was that people who have looked at the data have already decided that a third shot is a wise thing to do. Also, once the vaccinations are officially approved (versus their current "Emergency Use" status), a doctor would be allowed to "prescribe" a third shot regardless of current policy, whereas now, getting it would involve circumventing current regulations.

Do you have a pointer to these regulations?

 

[nicho]

Do you have a pointer to these regulations?

https://www.fda.gov/media/144412/download

 

[poorcody]

Do you have a pointer to these regulations?

The dosage regimen is listed in the EUA that @nicho referenced.

That aside, how do you interpret this sentence from the NYTimes article that I quoted?
"...if the F.D.A. fully licenses a vaccine, doctors would have vastly more leeway to prescribe a booster for their patients. Some health experts expect that Pfizer could receive that approval by this fall."

That to me implies doctors don't have the authority to prescribe booster shots. And, at least here in NY state, the clinics won't let you in if you've already had it.

 

[pshufd]

The dosage regimen is listed in the EUA that @nicho referenced.

That aside, how do you interpret this sentence from the NYTimes article that I quoted?
"...if the F.D.A. fully licenses a vaccine, doctors would have vastly more leeway to prescribe a booster for their patients. Some health experts expect that Pfizer could receive that approval by this fall."

That to me implies doctors don't have the authority to prescribe booster shots. And, at least here in NY state, the clinics won't let you in if you've already had it.

You can't register for a vaccine in my state if you've already had the shots as well. But that was when you had to use the reservation system. I have seen videos of popup sites where they did not seem to have any electronic systems to do validation or verification. We have a popup vaccine van coming to do vaccinations at my gym in the near future (I didn't really catch the date but I've seen the van there before).

I'm in the higher-risk category so I'll just ask my oncologist in a few weeks as most of his patients (or maybe all of them) are in the high-risk category. I need surgery to correct a few issues from an old surgery and I would like to do it this fall but I'm not going to do it if the COVID numbers are rising or even accelerating.

 

[pshufd]

https://www.fda.gov/media/144412/download

Thanks for the link.

The dosing regimen is two doses of 0.3 mL each, 3 weeks apart.

There's actually nothing in the document that says that you can only have two doses.

But, if you assume that the above limits you to two doses, the problem with doing the EUAs in this way restrict you to two doses per vaccination type. The EUAs don't reference other vaccinations so neither EUA would preclude you from taking other vaccinations.

 

[nicho]

Thanks for the link.

The dosing regimen is two doses of 0.3 mL each, 3 weeks apart.

There's actually nothing in the document that says that you can only have two doses.

But, if you assume that the above limits you to two doses, the problem with doing the EUAs in this way restrict you to two doses per vaccination type. The EUAs don't reference other vaccinations so neither EUA would preclude you from taking other vaccinations.

None of these authorisations are about you taking them. The regulations are about the people who can give them and what they're allowed to give.

"The emergency use of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID‐19 Vaccine under this EUA must be consistent with, and may not exceed, the terms of the Authorization, including the Scope of Authorization (Section II) and the Conditions of Authorization (Section III)"

But yes, nothing within technically precludes a vaccinator from giving a dose of another vaccine as a "booster".

 

[pshufd]

None of these authorisations are about you taking them. The regulations are about the people who can give them and what they're allowed to give.

"The emergency use of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID‐19 Vaccine under this EUA must be consistent with, and may not exceed, the terms of the Authorization, including the Scope of Authorization (Section II) and the Conditions of Authorization (Section III)"

But yes, nothing within technically precludes a vaccinator from giving a dose of another vaccine as a "booster".

People traditionally don't want to take any additional doses of a vaccine.

A lot of people don't want to take any doses of a vaccine.

I'd modify your statement to: But yes, nothing within technically precludes a vaccinator from giving a dose of another vaccine. to be technically correct and concise.

I think that I'd still prefer to be in the clinical trial for the vaccine that targets Delta (and probably others).

 

[iluvmacs99]

Really interesting read.

I will say however, aside from the Delta variant, we can all agree that being fully vaccinated puts you in a much safer spot than unvaccinated, regardless of the vaccine date stamp inoculations. And if someone were to contract the Delta variant, the main relief is it would likely prevent hospitalization and severe effects. I think that’s the main take away from those fully vaccinated, anyone can still catch the Delta variant or even the Alpha, but it should prevent any long-term detrimental effects to your body and being hospitalized.

Indeed. With the Delta variant at large right now, being fully vaccinated puts everyone in a much safer position than unvaccinated. There is a group of unvaccinated people who had gotten sick from COVID and recovered through natural immunity, but decided not to take the vaccine now or in the near future.

Here are a few facts regarding the Delta variant vs the original strain. The study was conducted in China.

The incubation period of the original strain (original COVID) was between 5 - 8 days with the average of 6 days. The incubation period of the Delta variant is 3-5 days with the average of 5 days. That was determined via the PCR test, when the test turned positive. So the Delta variant incubation period is shorter than the original strain. Also, the Delta variant has 1260 times the viral load compared to the original strain. So a 2 dose vaccination regiment will definitely help prevent hospitalization and severe diseases against the Delta variant just because that it is so much more infectious than the original strain.

 

[poorcody]

NPR story this morning:

"...in the US, regulators [...] have yet to authorize additional use of any vaccine. Until they do, doctors aren't allowed to recommend a third dose. " (around 1:45 mark)

 

[44267547]

Indeed. With the Delta variant at large right now, being fully vaccinated puts everyone in a much safer position than unvaccinated. There is a group of unvaccinated people who had gotten sick from COVID and recovered through natural immunity, but decided not to take the vaccine now or in the near future.

Here are a few facts regarding the Delta variant vs the original strain. The study was conducted in China.

The incubation period of the original strain (original COVID) was between 5 - 8 days with the average of 6 days. The incubation period of the Delta variant is 3-5 days with the average of 5 days. That was determined via the PCR test, when the test turned positive. So the Delta variant incubation period is shorter than the original strain. Also, the Delta variant has 1260 times the viral load compared to the original strain. So a 2 dose vaccination regiment will definitely help prevent hospitalization and severe diseases against the Delta variant just because that it is so much more infectious than the original strain.

I could take your post that you perfectly wrote, and show that to the 90 million unvaccinated individuals who choose to refute the vaccination, and I wonder if that would somehow sway them in terms of realizing the stark difference of how much more dangerous than Delta variant is. Of course, why would anyone of those 90 million people be interested in reading that anyway, when they already made the decision ‘they don’t need it’ or ‘I’m fine without it.’

I don’t think people take the time to fully understand the realities outside their ‘comfort zone’, the potential of risking their life because they ‘live in a rural county where there is a minimal amount of cases’. Those are the people that can’t be convinced one way or the other.

 

[iluvmacs99]

I could take your post that you perfectly wrote, and show that to the 90 million unvaccinated individuals who choose to refute the vaccination, and I wonder if that would somehow sway them in terms of realizing the stark difference of how much more dangerous than Delta variant is. Of course, why would anyone of those 90 million people be interested in reading that anyway, when they already made the decision ‘they don’t need it’ or ‘I’m fine without it.’

I don’t think people take the time to fully understand the realities outside their ‘comfort zone’, the potential of risking their life because they ‘live in a rural county where there is a minimal amount of cases’. Those are the people that can’t be convinced one way or the other.

Well, many people who decided not to be vaccinated are hypnotized by a variety of personal ideologies or political narratives.

There's really nothing we can do other than they quickly come to their senses before the fall and winter sets in or else they'll have to go through the COVID experience themselves and the side effects of LONG Covid post recovery for some people. That's probably the most blunt message COVID can send to those people, because they are really beyond being rational anymore.

People do not realize that COVID is part of a cold virus and like any cold viruses, it can become endemic which means it comes around yearly. Like the old saying goes -- "You can run, but you can't hide". Sooner or later, COVID will get you. It's not a matter of if, but a matter of when.

 

[44267547]

Well, many people who decided not to be vaccinated are hypnotized by a variety of personal ideologies or political narratives.

My Father said something to me growing up, and he was a very successful businessman, owning a number of companies. He told me, “You can give someone a $100 bill, and most people would be grateful, but there’s that one person that will look at that $100 bill and find something wrong with it.” In other words, not everyone will be satisfied for something that they have access to for free, in this case, a vaccination, and has life-saving benefits from long-term health complications.

And those same people who have chosen to ignore the vaccination, already know that plenty of localized health professionals (Notice how I didn’t say ‘mass media’, but Local doctors in their area) debunked these concocted theories that have no validation time over again. But, I don’t think anyone expected 100% vaccination rate for people, because it’s evident intelligence was outweighed by ‘I ain’t scurred about it…’ type mentality.

There's really nothing we can do other than they quickly come to their senses before the fall and winter sets in or else they'll have to go through the COVID experience themselves and the side effects of LONG Covid post recovery for some people. That's probably the most blunt message COVID can send to those people, because they are really beyond being rational anymore.

Unfortunately, I have a neighbor next door to me that has this exact mindset. He’s a building contractor and when stores were requiring ‘mandated masking’, he told me specifically that he would not give them his business and frequent stores that would not make masking required. He’s very successful with his business, but he’d rather spend his time in the bars where transmission probably has his highest ratio, but; as much as he is successful, he’s also not very intelligent.

Also, my wife is a cardiologist. She’s already worked with younger individuals in their 20s who will have permanent heart damage for the rest of life, because they refused the vaccination.

People do not realize that COVID is part of a cold virus and like any cold viruses, it can become endemic which means it comes around yearly. Like the old saying goes -- "You can run, but you can't hide". Sooner or later, COVID will get you. It's not a matter of if, but a matter of when.

Right. And there goes the theory for those who are claiming that ‘this would go away’. And some of those people who were saying that, probably aren’t here anymore. This is the world we live in now, you either adapt and be tactful, or become a statistic.

People know what to do, the guidelines have been copied & pasted everywhere, most are trying to make a difference, and then you have vaccines widely available, it’s what somebody chooses to do with the having access to vaccine that was presented to us within less than nine months that makes a difference in their community and surrounding friends, families and coworkers.

*********

By the way, thanks for your service.

 

[pshufd]

Biden administration buying more vaccine doses for kids and possible boosters

The federal government is exercising a clause in its contract with Pfizer to buy 200 million more doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, including for children under 12 if and when the Food and Drug Administration gives the green light and to prepare for the possibility of booster shots, according to an administration official familiar with the contract.

"Here's the bottom line — we've always prepared for every scenario," White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Friday, confirming the purchase.

The doses will be delivered between fall 2021 and spring 2022, as President Joe Biden says the vaccine will likely be available for young children "soon," and as experts study whether a booster shot might be necessary for fully vaccinated individuals in the future. As a part of the agreement, the official said Pfizer will give the U.S. 65 million pediatric doses if the vaccine is approved for emergency use in children under 12, making doses available immediately in the event of authorization.

... Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN earlier this month that, "given the data and the information we have, we do not need to give people a third shot, a boost." Still, he said health experts are examining whether a booster shot might be needed in the future.

U.S. Buys 200 Million Covid-19 Vaccines From Pfizer and BioNTech at About $24 a Shot

The U.S. is paying about $24 a dose, according to Pfizer, up from the $19.50 that the government paid in its earlier deals. The deal brings the total purchased from the U.S. to 1 billion doses.

www.wsj.com

 

[scubachap]

I've read a fair bit that seems to suggest that the AZ (and I guess the other same tech ones - J&J) seem to be better at creating a T cell response, which AFAIK is quite long lasting compared to the antibody response (?). I'm no expert so I won't try and expound any further - I will just leave a link to an FT article here (and there are many others if you google.) I guess this is why there's so much thinking going on about mixing vaccines.

This seems to coincide with my own anecdotal experiences here in the UK that has lots of AZ vaccinations. When we were unvaccinated (through the first two waves but particularly during the second) I knew lots of people who got infected and also knew some people who died. This third wave (despite being a nastier Delta variant) feels a lot more remote as although there obviously are still a lot of infections according to the stats etc, I'm really not seeing much around me and I haven't as yet heard of anyone I know (even vaguely) being really ill, hospitalised or dying. (Lots of people are getting pinged by the app but that's a different discussion). Mind you, I don't know any vaccine refusers even among my daughters peer group who are all about 18. I do know of a few people who said they were going to refuse but when it came to crunch they all quietly seemed to change their minds.

Now, I appreciate this is completely subjective and I'm certainly not saying we're out of the woods so I'm continuing to be very careful (as I'd advise everyone else to be) but to my mind it's a great advert for taking up a vaccination. In my little bit of the world they seem to be working really well...