As a healthcare provider I can say a third shot (at a minimum) is absolutely going to happen. It will take some time to go through the proper trials and authorization process, but I think it’s inevitable. Pfizer’s 3rd shot recently released info from their study is only looking antibody levels, which doesn’t necessarily translate to real world efficacy. So they have a lot more work to do before they can market such a product.
The problem however is that a booster is not going to be particularly effective longterm when you consider that 1/3% of eligible America doesn’t want the vaccine plus (currently) children under 12 are not eligible. Plus much of the world doesn’t have any significant percentage of their population vaccinated.
While it’s true that even with the full vaccinations under the current protocols makes hospitalization and death extremely unlikely, the problem is with only 40% efficacy, regardless of how severe the breakthrough cases are, there is a potential for mutations that make the virus resistant to the current vaccines, which could mean even more breakthrough cases and potentially worse symptoms/outcomes. Mutations can still occur in vaccinated populations if breakthrough cases occur. It’s a very slippery slope.
The faster we can get everyone vaccinated, the better. I agree with
@yaxomoxay that for 99% of people at this point not getting the vaccination is a choice. And with hundreds of millions of people vaccinated and basically one in a million chances of adverse effects (that may also occur if infected with the actual virus) and the risks of the infection itself, hesitancy in my mind is ridiculous. The problem is with such a high percentage of the population forgoing vaccinations, it’s entirely possible it will render the current vaccines even more ineffective.
I’m not sure how to convince people how to get vaccinated that don’t want to. Some people may have to see people starting to die around them. I do think the government (state, federal, and local) needs to get more creative with incentives, education/outreach to individuals and social institutions (ie churches), etc.
I believe in patient autonomy, but the consequences here are significant and extend well beyond the individual. Workplaces have long been legally authorized to mandate vaccines. It took my Hospital until late June to mandate the vaccine (about 15% were not vaccinated). I think it would be interesting if Insurance companies tried to tell their subscribers if you’re eligible and not vaccinated by D-date, we won’t cover your healthcare costs if you’re hospitalized for COVID. Not sure that would hold up legally but it would be interesting to explore.
It’s just crazy to me that with with all the deaths, hospitalizations, and reported longterm effects that people think getting the vaccine is more dangerous.
As a HCP I was among the first people in the world to get the Pfizer vaccine in the world… like a week before Christmas 2020. As someone in good health in my early 30’s I’m not so concerned about me getting severely sick- statistically it’s quite unlikely. I was more concerned about all of those more vulnerable and potential mutations creating a more virulent or dangerous strain. I think that’s how young, healthy people need to look at this.
