Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread

[BoxerGT2.5]

Sure, if you're willing to block the unvaccinated from hospitals. Keep them home until they get better or don't, keep hospitals free from being overrun and staff from being burnt out. If you're not, the risk from a collapsed healthcare system affects everyone.

What does that have to do with keeping kids out of the classroom?

I have no problem with a hospital triaging and turning patients away when they are at their capacity, not allowing them to be overrun. An ER can only take so many trauma calls before the excess trauma's get diverted. The truth is very few hospitals in the country reach that point, that's more hyperbolic than reality. Currently only 19% of hospital beds are being occupied by COVID patients.

 

[Madhatter32]

At this point it's evident the vaccines protect you, it is becoming less and less about preventing transmission. While there's a real disdain in the US towards the unvaccinated, Omicron didn't emerge from the unvaccinated US population.

Why hasn't there been more pressure on the Pharma companies to put aside shareholder motivations and say screw the patents, we're going to try to get the as much of the world vaccinated at we can for the greater good? If that means sharing the technology on how to manufacturer the COVID vaccination, so be it. I'm not sure I've heard any new outlet grill the CEO of Pfizer or Moderna on this. Why? Because if you haven't noticed, all their shows are "Brought to you by Pfizer". Instead, we have places in South and Central America banking on Cuba of all places to help bail them out.

In the midst of a public pandemic we've managed to make this 100% about power and money.

The very reason companies do not do give away their product is the reason we have those products in the first place -- especially in biotechnology.

 

[eatrains]

What does that have to do with keeping kids out of the classroom?

I have no problem with a hospital triaging and turning patients away when they are at their capacity, not allowing them to be overrun. An ER can only take so many trauma calls before the excess trauma's get diverted. The truth is very few hospitals in the country reach that point, that's more hyperbolic than reality. Currently only 19% of hospital beds are being occupied by COVID patients.

Any sort of congregation raises the risk of spread.

 

[Mainsail]

Any sort of congregation raises the risk of spread.

Of course, we all realize that any movement outside the confines of our beds raises the risk of spread and other bodily injury. But, we can not live in a world where any activity that raises risk is unacceptable. How do you sell this notion to the public? Especially when three of California's top government leaders attended the Rams' game. They even took pictures maskless with sports celebrates. How can these leaders advocate for school restrictions because "any congregation raises the risk of spread" and yet attend this massive sport event. Insane hypocrisy. How do we fight this thing with such obvious failure of credibility and simple logic?

BTW - This is not about politics. This is about consistency of health care messaging and credibility of policy making. This is about getting facts out to the public and not being tied to a narrative despite all logic.

 

[BoxerGT2.5]

Any sort of congregation raises the risk of spread.

Right, but we're well past the point of "Bend the curve" or "stop the spread" (not possible). I mean Fauci himself said we will all, at some point, catch COVID. At this point it is about formulating a plan that protects the most vulnerable, which is over 65 and with comorbidities, and letting the rest of society get on with their lifes. Locking 10yr olds in the house because they might be in contact with other 10yr olds is asinine. More and more countries are following suit. We can't hide under a rock and boost ourselves out of this.

 

[eatrains]

Of course, we all realize that any movement outside the confines of our beds raises the risk of spread and other bodily injury. But, we can not live in a world where any activity that raises risk is unacceptable. How do you sell this notion to the public? Especially when three of California's top government leaders attended the Rams' game. They even took pictures maskless with sports celebrates. How can these leaders advocate for school restrictions because "any congregation raises the risk of spread" and yet attend this massive sport event. Insane hypocrisy. How do we fight this thing with such obvious failure of credibility and simple logic?

BTW - This is not about politics. This is about consistency of health care messaging and credibility of policy making. This is about getting facts out to the public and not being tied to a narrative despite all logic.

"Hey, public. The hospitals and healthcare facilities are currently over capacity due to covid patients. We have no more room for emergencies, cancer patients, etc. Until the surge subsides, we need to slow the spread of the virus." Is that so difficult?

And California schools don't have restrictions.

 

[eatrains]

Right, but we're well past the point of "Bend the curve" or "stop the spread" (not possible). I mean Fauci himself said we will all, at some point, catch COVID. At this point it is about formulating a plan that protects the most vulnerable, which is over 65 and with comorbidities, and letting the rest of society get on with their lifes. Locking 10yr olds in the house because they might be in contact with other 10yr olds is asinine. More and more countries are following suit. We can't hide under a rock and boost ourselves out of this.

The rest of society needs healthcare, though.

 

[Mainsail]

"Hey, public. The hospitals and healthcare facilities are currently over capacity due to covid patients. We have no more room for emergencies, cancer patients, etc. Until the surge subsides, we need to slow the spread of the virus." Is that so difficult?

And California schools don't have restrictions.

Yes, it is very difficult to understand when the people telling us to “slow the spread” to protect the hospitals from overcrowding are the same people attending massive events with huge crowds. Zero credibility.

 

[eatrains]

Yes, it is very difficult to understand when the people telling us to “slow the spread” to protect the hospitals from overcrowding are the same people attending massive events with huge crowds. Zero credibility.

Instead of looking to a politician to imitate, think for yourself and use common sense.

 

[Mainsail]

Instead of looking to a politician to imitate, think for yourself and use common sense.

Or maybe there is no rhyme or reason to the guidance, or at least we should freely question it without fear of running afoul of a certain narrative. When I walk into a full restaurant with a mask as required, then sit down with 50 people near me and take off my mask, I think this guidance is ridiculous. Pure performance art. But, if I question it, I lack virtuous compassion for those being hospitalized or working in hospitals. Even though it makes zero sense.

Like you say, “Think for yourself and use common sense.”

 

[poorcody]

Or maybe there is no rhyme or reason to the guidance, or at least we should freely question it without fear of running afoul of a certain narrative. When I walk into a full restaurant with a mask as required, then sit down with 50 people near me and take off my mask, I think this guidance is ridiculous. Pure performance art. But, if I question it, I lack virtuous compassion for those being hospitalized or working in hospitals. Even though it makes zero sense.

Like you say, “Think for yourself and use common sense.”

You keep providing all these examples of irresposinible behavior as reason for everyone to be irresponsible. I haven't walked into a bar or restaurant in two years. I wouldn't go to a football game. I haven't walked into an indoor store without an N95 mask in two years. These are very minor sacrifices compared to what most humans on the planet have to deal with everyday.

Health officials mostly make policy recommendations, but politicians are the ones that enact them. Are politicians hypocrites? I mean, does anyone think they are not?

Right, but we're well past the point of "Bend the curve" or "stop the spread" (not possible).

It's not a binary thing. The more spread the more danger to everyone -- including future new variants. We have to balance trying to reduce spread against the costs of reducing it. It's always a tough call. I would have closed all the restaurants for a month when Omicron hit. Trying to do so would be politically untenable.

Yes, we will have to live with a certain level of it at some point. 3,000+ deaths every day or two is not an acceptable level IMO.

For those of you who dismiss the problem as relegated to people with comorbidities that you don't have... I remind you you can wake up any day of your life -- young or old -- thinking you are in great health and finding out you have some chronic condition like cancer that you thought you were too healthy to get (e.g. average age of testicular cancer is 33). It's happened to people in this very thread. Health is a gift that can be taken away in the blink of an eye, and there is more luck than merit in your fate.

 

[Mainsail]

You keep providing all these examples of irresposinible behavior as reason for everyone to be irresponsible. I haven't walked into a bar or restaurant in two years. I wouldn't go to a football game. I haven't walked into an indoor store without an N95 mask in two years. These are very minor sacrifices compared to what most humans on the planet have to deal with everyday.

Health officials mostly make policy recommendations, but politicians are the ones that enact them. Are politicians hypocrites? I mean, does anyone think they are not?

I am not saying these are reasons to behave irresponsibly, but some of these policies promulgated by our health officials make no sense. They should be challenged. This idea that you are virtuous because you don't question what you are told to do is ridiculous. With this approach, we would never have had a free speech or civil rights movement and the Vietnam War would have lasted 10 years longer. There are plenty of responsible people that have gone to restaurants in the last 2 years. There are plenty of responsible people that have been indoor shopping with cloth masks rather than N95 in the last 2 years. This holier than thou virtue seeking narrative isn't win over any converts. It just alienates people.

 

[44267547]

Politics aside……………

We had our first confirmed cases of the ‘Stealth variant’. (I believe it was three people and it wasn’t clear the disparity between the two.) There wasn’t really much news given specifics of the demographics of the people who contracted it and the exposure that followed, but their symptoms were almost identical to Omicron, with a difference being of extreme fatigue. All three people were vaccinated/boosted.

 

[poorcody]

I am not saying these are reasons to behave irresponsibly, but some of these policies promulgated by our health officials make no sense. They should be challenged.

I do things based on what epidemiologists and experienced public health experts say (e.g. Gottleib, Hotez, Fauci, Topol, Osterholm, Bedford, Emanuel, Wu). I also read lots of medical studies as part of my job.

This idea that you are virtuous because you don't question what you are told to do is ridiculous. With this approach, we would never have had a free speech or civil rights movement and the Vietnam War would have lasted 10 years longer.

Okay.

There are plenty of responsible people that have gone to restaurants in the last 2 years. There are plenty of responsible people that have been indoor shopping with cloth masks rather than N95 in the last 2 years.

We will have to agree to disagree on that. The good news is our views might converge soon. In my local area, positive cases are down to around 38 per 100K per day. Gottleib for one says 20 is the target he would pick for de-masking and mostly a return to normal. We were at 325 on January 7!

 

[bradl]

I am not saying these are reasons to behave irresponsibly, but some of these policies promulgated by our health officials make no sense. They should be challenged. This idea that you are virtuous because you don't question what you are told to do is ridiculous. With this approach, we would never have had a free speech or civil rights movement and the Vietnam War would have lasted 10 years longer. There are plenty of responsible people that have gone to restaurants in the last 2 years. There are plenty of responsible people that have been indoor shopping with cloth masks rather than N95 in the last 2 years. This holier than thou virtue seeking narrative isn't win over any converts. It just alienates people.

Not for nothing, but someone did exactly what you are suggesting, in questioning the policies.. in fact, they took it all the way to SCOTUS. See Jacobson v. Massachusetts. You’ll find it and its ruling to still be valid and on the books today.

As for alienating people, as it was succinctly stated above (I’ll be more blunt), you have to actually BE alive and in good health to enjoy the socializing you are wanting; health policy, no health policy, or otherwise. You only have to stay in good health to enjoy what you want, and that is a choice the individual has to make.

One’s health is fallible; like the freedoms you mentioned, you have to fight for your health, and even more so than any other freedoms; you have to be alive and in good health to enjoy them. Once you blow your health, that’s it; you don’t get those other chances to improve your health, as you’re spending your time and efforts trying to get back what you’ve taken for granted.

In short, freedoms > health > life.

Those health officials are trying to help people to not take their health for granted, and questioning them is running the risk of not only taking your health, but potentially risking other people’s lives for something you want, which in the grander scheme of things, is less important.

Now, don’t get me wrong; freedoms are very important, but your health and your life are more important because you need to have your health (and by extension, your life) to be able to have and enjoy those freedoms.

BL.

 

[Mainsail]

Those health officials are trying to help people to not take their health for granted, and questioning them is running the risk of not only taking your health, but potentially risking other people’s lives for something you want, which in the grander scheme of things, is less important.

This idea that simply questioning guidance and challenging the logic behind some of these policies is somehow putting yourself and others at risk is ridiculous. Even well intended hard working HeaLth Care officials need to be accountable and credible. If their policies don’t standup, they need to be changed. And, they won’t change unless people speak up.

 

[bradl]

This idea that simply questioning guidance and challenging the logic behind some of these policies is somehow putting yourself and others at risk is ridiculous. Even well intended hard working HeaLth Care officials need to be accountable and credible. If their policies don’t standup, they need to be changed. And, they won’t change unless people speak up.

two words that challenge their policies: SCIENTIFIC METHOD.

These people are scientists. They come up with an idea.. you know.. a hypothesis.. Gather the variables, test their theory, record the data, review the data. If something is inaccurate, they change the policy, and try again. Unfortunately, due to circumstances beyond our control, as this virus has the potential to end every single human being's life on this planet, we all have become the proverbial guinea pig in the testing of the prevention hypotheses our scientists have thought of.

Questioning it because of the logic or that it interferes with someone's rights or freedoms has already been done. That Jacobson case I mentioned? That occurred in 1905. It was ruled that in cases of an epidemic or pandemic, one's individual rights do not come before the health of the society around that individual, and that the individual needs to do their part - especially if so ordered - to preserve the health of the society around that individual.

That is a 117 year old ruling that has been affirmed at least 4 different times.

How does that have bearing here? the healthcare officials are coming up with those policies - which are variable, by the way, due to how variating this virus is - that we all need to follow, per SCOTUS. What you are wanting are static rules that never change. That would work if the virus stayed static; but it isn't staying static, so we can't stay static. We adapt as the virus adapts, and stomping one's feet to ask why is taking time away from being able to combat this to preserve the health that we need to just live, as well as puts other people's lives and health in danger.

This is bordering on PRSI, so I'll end this particular conversation here.

BL.

 

[eatrains]

Or maybe there is no rhyme or reason to the guidance, or at least we should freely question it without fear of running afoul of a certain narrative. When I walk into a full restaurant with a mask as required, then sit down with 50 people near me and take off my mask, I think this guidance is ridiculous. Pure performance art. But, if I question it, I lack virtuous compassion for those being hospitalized or working in hospitals. Even though it makes zero sense.

Like you say, “Think for yourself and use common sense.”

One instance of incongruous guidance isn't reason to dismiss the concept of employing precautions to reduce the spread of a virus that's causing a healthcare collapse.

 

[Hunter5117]

We will have to agree to disagree on that. The good news is our views might converge soon. In my local area, positive cases are down to around 38 per 100K per day. Gottleib for one says 20 is the target he would pick for de-masking and mostly a return to normal. We were at 325 on January 7!

How do we know the current level of infection. The rapid antigen tests are less effective (some say worthless) in diagnosing the new variants, even the CDC has admitted that. I am currently symptomatic, sore throat, cough, runny nose, messed up sense of taste, achy and fatigued. I went in yesterday and got an examination and rapid test which came back negative. The doctor who examined me said regardless of the test result, she felt I have covid and should isolate for the next few days. Other people who just did a home test are probably still out in the population.

 

[poorcody]

How do we know the current level of infection. The rapid antigen tests are less effective (some say worthless) in diagnosing the new variants, even the CDC has admitted that. I am currently symptomatic, sore throat, cough, runny nose, messed up sense of taste, achy and fatigued. I went in yesterday and got an examination and rapid test which came back negative. The doctor who examined me said regardless of the test result, she felt I have covid and should isolate for the next few days. Other people who just did a home test are probably still out in the population.

Sorry to hear... hope you recover quickly! I personally bought a bunch of the molecular tests that are as accurate as PCR since as you said antigen tests are less reliable. When I ordered them I got them in a few days. Expensive though.

Detect:

Detect - Accurate, Accessible Diagnostics

Detect is developing rapid molecular tests for point of need.

detect.com

Cue Health:

Diagnostic testing at the speed of life

Every health journey begins with reliable diagnostics. With Cue, you can get actionable, accurate health insights delivered fast, right to your fingertips - all from a portable molecular testing platform that fits in the palm of your hand.

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In terms of measuring in the population, yes, absolute numbers are weak, but the relative trend is what I watch.

 

[HDFan]

How do we know the current level of infection.

In my area they test sewage for Covid. It includes asymtomatic infections and those who are not tested. Results are available sooner than clinical testing.

 

[poorcody]

In my area they test sewage for Covid. It includes asymtomatic infections and those who are not tested. Results are available sooner than clinical testing.

CDC has a new sewage tracker page (there is a phrase I never thought I would say) as well:

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

 

[44267547]

We’re finally to a point here where cases are significantly dropping on a weekly basis, and we’ve reached our third straight week in a decline, however; our hospital occupancy still remains high with limited capacity. But in fairness, that’s also partially I think due to other known illnesses, where hospitals are generally busy this time of year.

The only other negative point I can think of, is our vaccination rates haven’t increased, they’ve just completely plateaued. I’d say I’d have to agree with a local epidemiologist in our area, where people are just ‘numb’ to all the directives, where they mentally blocked out what they need to do -versus- what they should do. If anything, it forces them in the direction of ‘I’ll do what I think is best’ type mentality, which is the end result of over-saturation from the media, the workplace, influences from local people, etc.

In a lot of regards, I feel like we’re the only ones that make tactical decisions that we’re not interested participating in large group situations, where some of our other friends disagree. It’s all coming down to personal choice at this point, there is no more ‘mass following’ of what’s the right thing to do.

The most exciting news I’ve heard all weekend, is our cases are dropping by 62% (Our county only had 167 positive cases), 4 weeks ago, we were at 450+ cases a day. We’re at our lowest data point since July 2021 (During the Delta ravage). That’s a huge accomplishment and I suspect we’re reaching a point of saturation where the Omicron variant is weakening every day. The only hope at this point, is we don’t have another highly contagious mutation, even though mutations are inevitable.

Even with masking completely non-existent and vaccinations have stalled, leading into spring, hopefully people will venture more outside with warmer temperatures on the rise. [It was actually 49° here today.]

My only concern at this point, is still the school systems that seem to have the highest positive rate, for obvious reasons. But the silver lining there, is spring break is in two weeks for all the schools, and they are off for two whole weeks, so hopefully that hiatus will slow things down.

Oh, something I’ve noted, is masks are plentiful available on the shelves, but sanitizer/wipes are oddly sparse. I’m not exactly sure what’s the connection there. (Yes, I’m aware of supply shortage with chains across the country, but I suspect there’s probably some type of allocation here.)

 

[poorcody]

The most exciting news I’ve heard all weekend, is our cases are dropping by 62% (Our county only had 167 positive cases), 4 weeks ago, we were at 450+ cases a day. We’re at our lowest data point since July 2021 (During the Delta ravage). That’s a huge accomplishment and I suspect we’re reaching a point of saturation where the Omicron variant is weakening every day. The only hope at this point, is we don’t have another highly contagious mutation, even though mutations are inevitable.

Similar around here (upstate New York). We are back to pre-Omicron numbers for the most part (deaths still lagging but dropping fast). We were also in the throes of our Delta surge when it started, and Omicron appears to have completely displaced Delta, so we got a double bonus.

We still have state mandate on masks for another week, but it does feel like a new dawn is rising. It's hard to exhale knowing other variants may come, but it kind of feels like last year when the vaccines arrived and we thought the worse was over. Hopefully it sticks this time...

Positive Tests Over Time, by Region and County

Positive cases by day

coronavirus.health.ny.gov

 

[44267547]

Similar around here (upstate New York). We are back to pre-Omicron numbers for the most part (deaths still lagging but dropping fast). We were also in the throes of our Delta surge when it started, and Omicron appears to have completely displaced Delta, so we got a double bonus.

We still have state mandate on masks for another week, but it does feel like a new dawn is rising. It's hard to exhale knowing other variants may come, but it kind of feels like last year when the vaccines arrived and we thought the worse was over. Hopefully it sticks this time...

View attachment 1955190

Positive Tests Over Time, by Region and County

Positive cases by day

coronavirus.health.ny.gov

The the way I look at this right now, is even though it’s been two years since this started, I would rather have Omicron than Delta. Delta just destroyed the unvaccinated, and even though Omicron is still considerably ‘dangerous’ for the unvaccinated, it seems to a lesser degree, where most people recover. Delta was so dangerous, because it viciously attacked the lungs, and caused a lot of long-term damage for people who contracted it that were also unvaccinated.

Either way, we’re seeing two divides of immunity, A.) Those who are vaccinated/boosted, and B.) Those who are not vaccinated, but are likely survivors of contracting Delta and/or Omicron, placing them in the ‘herd immunity’ category.

Until things continue to keep improving, we’re avoiding large scale events. We were actually supposed to attend a party about three weeks ago, and in our best interests, we decided against it. Well, to find out, some of the people that attended the party…. and unbeknownst to them were positive (Of course) and are still suffering affects from contracting Omicron. So there again, making sound decisions and being tactful is key.