Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread

[44267547]

Side note:

All of our restrictions were lifted today (No occupancy restrictions, Hospital visitations were lifted, and the masking status is ‘Recommended’ -v.s.- required) [Except for Govt. buildings].

Our cases accrued a new 9 week low and have continuously dropped 13% on a weekly basis.

The only negative, is our hospital occupancy is still relatively high at ~89%.

 

[HDFan]

the current Omicron variant is essentially (in my opinion!) a coronavirus-based cold virus and should have been treated as such.

Not sure how you see them as being the same. ~50k people a week worldwide are dying from coronovirus (using very broad numbers, with Omicron having replaced Delta in most places). If colds had the same mortality rate the death counts would be astronomically higher. There is also the issue of long-term covid. Poorly understood, may affect up to 50% of those who get Covid infections, and in some cases causes complete disability. Don't think that happens with colds.

Fact check: You are not more likely to die from the common cold than COVID-19

A social media post claims that one is more likely to die of the common cold than COVID-19. This is not true.

www.reuters.com

50 percent of people who survive covid-19 face lingering symptoms, study finds

More than half experienced a decline in general well-being, resulting in weight loss, fatigue, fever or pain and 25 percent reported trouble thinking or concentrating.

www.washingtonpost.com

 

[Mainsail]

Not sure how you see them as being the same. ~50k people a week worldwide are dying from coronovirus (using very broad numbers, with Omicron having replaced Delta in most places). If colds had the same mortality rate the death counts would astronomically higher. There is also the issue of long-term covid. Poorly understood, may affect up to 50% of those who get Covid infections, and in some cases causes complete disability. Don't think that happens with colds.

Fact check: You are not more likely to die from the common cold than COVID-19

A social media post claims that one is more likely to die of the common cold than COVID-19. This is not true.

www.reuters.com

50 percent of people who survive covid-19 face lingering symptoms, study finds

More than half experienced a decline in general well-being, resulting in weight loss, fatigue, fever or pain and 25 percent reported trouble thinking or concentrating.

www.washingtonpost.com

The post you replied to related to the severity of Omicron. Where the articles that you cited written before or after Omicron?

 

[HDFan]

Where the articles that you cited written before or after Omicron?

Not sure I get the intent of your question. Pre-Omicron (Delta) infections had a higher death rate % than Omicron. After Omicron - we're not there yet.

A CDC study released on Tuesday showed nine deaths per 1,000 cases during the Omicron surge, compared to 13 deaths per 1,000 cases during the Delta surge and 16 deaths per 1,000 cases during last winter’s deadly surge.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

Trends in Disease Severity and Health Care Utilization ...

This report describes disease severity and healthcare utilization during the emergence of the Omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 in the U.S.

www.cdc.gov

 

[dk001]

Not sure I get the intent of your question. Pre-Omicron (Delta) infections had a higher death rate % than Omicron. After Omicron - we're not there yet.

A CDC study released on Tuesday showed nine deaths per 1,000 cases during the Omicron surge, compared to 13 deaths per 1,000 cases during the Delta surge and 16 deaths per 1,000 cases during last winter’s deadly surge.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

Trends in Disease Severity and Health Care Utilization ...

This report describes disease severity and healthcare utilization during the emergence of the Omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 in the U.S.

www.cdc.gov

Try Looking at the S African numbers. That was the POO.

 

[eatrains]

But would it? California had mask mandates. Florida and Texas did not. And if you look at the COVID cases during the Omicron wave, none of these states flattened the curve. California's cases went straight up and then straight down. Same with other large states without mandates. There was no flattening the curve regardless of masking policy. Also, there are negative impacts to mandates and mitigations to other elements aspects of life that must be weighted against their benefits.

Optimally everyone in the US that is eligible would get vaccinated, but that ship has sailed. Those that have rejected vaccination will not be moved by government programs and pressure. They have dug in. I am a big supporter of vaccinating adults, especially those that are most vulnerable to hospitalization and death. Unfortunately, while very effective against serious illness and death, vaccination has not proven to be very effective against Omnicron infection. So, the benefits of vaccinating young people (very unlikely to get severely ill) and mask mandates in schools to slow the spread seems substantially less with Omicron.

I am not sure how much better of a place we need to be in before there is a change of policy. Estimates are that 90% of the population now have some form of immunity (natural/vaccinated). We have treatments. We have testing. Cases are plummeting. Hospitalization are plummeting too, but the data is questionable at best, since there is no distinction between those hospitalized "with" vs "because" of COVID.

Finally, we have a public that has grown cynical of government programs and officials that have lost credibility, such as: Hypocritical politicians that don't follow the guidance they put in place for others or, "Noble lies" told by Health care officials to influence behavior. Experts and officials have burned all of their chips. The public is done.

Time to stop using a broad ax approach and focus mitigations and prevention on those most vulnerable. 75% of deaths are over 65. A huge percentage of deaths are obese. How about a medical surveillance program for the 90% that have the highest likelihood of serious illness and death? At most universities, College kids are required to be vaccinated and tested weekly. These are the people least likely to get severely sick. Meanwhile, there are no such medial survellience programs for the most vulnerable. Insane.

During the omicron wave, Florida's death rate was 13% higher than California's. Texas's was 32% higher than California's. The idea that omicron affected all states the same is hogwash.

 

[Mainsail]

During the omicron wave, Florida's death rate was 13% higher than California's. Texas's was 32% higher than California's. The idea that omicron affected all states the same is hogwash.

I thought the purpose of masking was to lower the rate of infection so we could flatten the curve and not overwhelm hospitals. In the age of Omicron, no one seriously believes they can avoid getting infected eventually, unless they stay isolated at home. So, it was about slowing the spread so hospitals can stay viable. Did any of these states flatten the curve with respect to infection? I don't see it.

As for deaths, there can be all sorts of explanations for that difference that have nothing to do with masking. What is the average age in Florida compared to California? Are people more likely to be vaccinated in Texas or California?

Meanwhile, most of the blue state governors have thrown in the towel on mask mandates ahead of CDC guidance.

 

[Pezimak]

U.K. stats are skewed as no one needs to take a PCR test, so official results rely on people uploading their lateral flow tests to the NHS.
And we will have zero restrictions in a week or 2 as the government is relaxing all covid Lass and making everything advisable instead. So not isolating or masks or social distancing etc.

We shall see how it goes.

 

[poorcody]

Personally, I think while the earlier variants like Alpha and Delta did require more physical separation and the use of masks, the current Omicron variant is essentially (in my opinion!) a coronavirus-based cold virus and should have been treated as such. We need to stop politicizing this pandemic and should have carefully made an agreement on how to deal with it properly.

Over 100,000 Americans died of Omicron in the last two months. It was the fastest pace of COVID deaths since vaccines were available to all.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/04/us/us-covid-deaths.html

 

[Macky-Mac]

.... Did any of these states flatten the curve with respect to infection? I don't see it.

As for deaths, there can be all sorts of explanations for that difference that have nothing to do with masking....

LOL - it just happened so fast that it looked like a spike to you ?

We'll never know how effective masks were, or weren't, out in the real world. Oh some people will make some guesses, but then some other people will post youtube rants denouncing those guesses.

From the beginning it was clear that the type of masks available to the public weren't going to be the primary tool in "flattening the curve"......this should have been pretty obvious to anyone who listened to the information that came out two years ago when all this started.

But almost immediately both wearing and not wearing a mask became easy political symbols. The same with getting vaccinated.

This thread started as a place for non-political, and hopefully helpful information. It seems to have turned into a place for political rants.

 

[poorcody]

This thread started as a place for non-political, and hopefully helpful information. It seems to have turned into a place for political rants.

Yeah it is starting to feel that way, although to be fair, the politics does greatly influence what happens, so it's hard to separate the two. But 95 pages in I think this has been a pretty substantive thread all things considered. I'm taking a break because I'm exhausted from it, but I personally want to thank everyone for helping me explore and understand the issues. ❤️

 

[44267547]

I'm taking a break because I'm exhausted from it, but I personally want to thank everyone for helping me explore and understand the issues.

I can’t stand politics, and some just can’t help themselves when it comes to straying away from that topic, but I understand the dynamic that follows.

But that said, I just want to say, you’re the only one where I valued your feedback in this thread and it’s been informative, educational and interesting to compare the trends that we see from state to state in varying levels.

 

[eatrains]

I thought the purpose of masking was to lower the rate of infection so we could flatten the curve and not overwhelm hospitals. In the age of Omicron, no one seriously believes they can avoid getting infected eventually, unless they stay isolated at home. So, it was about slowing the spread so hospitals can stay viable. Did any of these states flatten the curve with respect to infection? I don't see it.

As for deaths, there can be all sorts of explanations for that difference that have nothing to do with masking. What is the average age in Florida compared to California? Are people more likely to be vaccinated in Texas or California?

Meanwhile, most of the blue state governors have thrown in the towel on mask mandates ahead of CDC guidance.

The purpose of masking is to reduce the burden on hospitals, and hospitalizations correlate more closely to deaths than to infections. Not all infections lead to hospitalizations, and the less severe the infection, the less likely it'll lead to hospitalization. Masks help reduce the severity of those infections they don't prevent.

 

[Mainsail]

The purpose of masking is to reduce the burden on hospitals, and hospitalizations correlate more closely to deaths than to infections. Not all infections lead to hospitalizations, and the less severe the infection, the less likely it'll lead to hospitalization. Masks help reduce the severity of those infections they don't prevent.

That would make sense if we flattened the curve for hospitalizations, but we did not. Not in California. Not nationally. The profile for hospitalizations and infections is almost identical.

 

[dk001]

Social distancing helped.
Proper masks helped. (N95)
Cloth masks and general surgical masks appear to have been fairly ineffective.

 

[44267547]

The purpose of masking is to reduce the burden on hospitals, and hospitalizations correlate more closely to deaths than to infections. Not all infections lead to hospitalizations, and the less severe the infection, the less likely it'll lead to hospitalization. Masks help reduce the severity of those infections they don't prevent.

83% is not hospitalized in our city of over 650,000 people that have contracted C/19 {Omicron}. The other ~17%, has a median age of ~55 or older that is hospitalized (With likely underlying conditions for some), and has been the primary trend with Omicron referencing those percentages. It’s also worth observing, that the majority of people who are being hospitalized, are likely stragglers who have refuted the vaccine.

With Delta, that was an entirely different scenario of all ages that really had no specific target age range (And the late adoption of a vaccine rollout.) So I’d say it depends on the trend of what you’re gauging and what time of year. Consider summer 2021 to early fall 2021 as an example when the country was at an extreme influx.

 

[Mainsail]

83% is not hospitalized in our city of over 650,000 people that have contracted C/19 {Omicron}. The other ~17%, has a median age of ~55 or older that is hospitalized (With likely underlying conditions for some), and has been the primary trend with Omicron referencing those percentages. It’s also worth observing, that the majority of people who are being hospitalized, are likely stragglers who have refuted the vaccine.

With Delta, that was an entirely different scenario of all ages that really had no specific target age range (And the late adoption of a vaccine rollout.) So I’d say it depends on the trend of what you’re gauging and what time of year. Consider summer 2021 to early fall 2021 as an example when the country was at an extreme influx.

If you look at the deaths from COVID during Alpha, Delta and Omicron waves, they are overwhelmingly older people. As I recall, about 90% over 55 y.o., and ~75% over 65 y.o. The vast majority of the population that are under 50 y.o. have a very small chance of dying from COVID. I am not saying that it does not happen. But, it is probably way more important for these folks to fasten their seat belts.....especially if they have the added protection of vaccination.

 

[Analog Kid]

If you look at the deaths from COVID during Alpha, Delta and Omicron waves, they are overwhelmingly older people. As I recall, about 90% over 55 y.o., and ~75% over 65 y.o. The vast majority of the population that are under 50 y.o. have a very small chance of dying from COVID. I am not saying that it does not happen. But, it is probably way more important for these folks to fasten their seat belts.....especially if they have the added protection of vaccination.

View attachment 1959065

Leaving aside the troubling "who cares, they're old" attitude, you're not controlling your variables.

The change in death rate was greatest among people between 35 and 44 between 2021 and 2019.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/02/lawler-deaths-by-age.html


Deaths increased by 40,000 just for people between 35 and 44 in 2021. In 2019 only 23,000 people between 25 and 65 died in car accidents, with and without seatbelts.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db400.htm

 

[Mainsail]

Over 100,000 Americans died of Omicron in the last two months. It was the fastest pace of COVID deaths since vaccines were available to all.

View attachment 1958157
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/04/us/us-covid-deaths.html

Unfortunately, I can not open the article, since I don't have a NY Times subscription. Is this because of Omicron, or is it because of waning immunity from vaccination? Or is it just because the weather is colder in the Winter (from Dec 15 to Feb 3) vs Spring, Summer and Fall (April 19 to Dec 15)? The first day of winter is Dec 21.

We need to be mindful of the difference between correlation and causation.

 

[Mainsail]

Leaving aside the troubling "who cares, they're old" attitude, you're not controlling your variables.

As a percentage, more people between 35 and 44 are dying in 2021 than in 2019.

View attachment 1959072

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/02/lawler-deaths-by-age.html


Deaths increased by 40,000 just for people between 35 and 44 in 2021. In 2019 only 23,000 people between 25 and 65 died in car accidents, with and without seatbelts.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db400.htm

Ok, first of all, I did not say anything about "who cares" if these are older people. I fall into the older age category BTW. Let's not make an argument by just being accusatory.

Second of all, the data that you are sharing must be for all deaths not COVID deaths. We were talking about COVID. Please refer to the CDC chart that I provided that shows deaths by age groups over time from COVID.

There is no way your data is for COVID only, since it shows 875,000 deaths in 2019 for 85+ alone. That is before the virus even reached US shores!

 

[jkcerda]

5 years flu free and just got COVID omnicron .

it sucks.

 

[Analog Kid]

Ok, first of all, I did not say anything about "who cares" if these are older people. I fall into the older age category BTW. Let's not make an argument by just being accusatory.

Second of all, the data that you are sharing must be for all deaths not COVID deaths. We were talking about COVID. Please refer to the CDC chart that I provided that shows deaths by age groups over time from COVID.

There is no way your data is for COVID only, since it shows 875,000 deaths in 2019 for 85+ alone. That is before the virus even reached US shores!

There were no covid deaths in 2019. There were 40,000 more deaths among people 35-44 in 2021 than in 2019. The rate of death for 35-44 year olds was 48% higher in 2021 than in 2019, only 7% higher for those over 85. I wonder what lead to the surge in deaths... ?

Your answer: forgetting seatbelts
My answer: covid

 

[Mainsail]

There were no covid deaths in 2019. There were 40,000 more deaths among people 35-44 in 2021 than in 2019. The rate of death for 35-44 year olds was 48% higher in 2021 than in 2019, only 7% higher for those over 85. I wonder what lead to the surge in deaths... ?

Your answer: forgetting seatbelts
My answer: covid

Honestly, I have no idea what you are talking about. You aren't even using COVID death data. You are taking total deaths and associating the entire percentage increase with COVID.

The CDC data below shows the numbers of those that died "involving" COVID over the last 2 years. Compare the numbers for younger people to older people. This overwhelmingly hits older people more than young people. Also, Look at the numbers for two years (2020-2022) for age 30-39. Less than one half of the number you attributing to just one year.

No one is discounting any of these deaths. I am simply showing the CDC data that says this illness has overwhelmingly killed more older people. Now, if you want to make the argument that older people die at a faster rate anyway, so it isn't unexpected that they would have a disproportionate number of deaths from COVID, then fine. I would actually agree with that.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

If you look at the deaths from COVID during Alpha, Delta and Omicron waves, they are overwhelmingly older people. As I recall, about 90% over 55 y.o., and ~75% over 65 y.o. The vast majority of the population that are under 50 y.o. have a very small chance of dying from COVID. I am not saying that it does not happen. But, it is probably way more important for these folks to fasten their seat belts.....especially if they have the added protection of vaccination.

View attachment 1959065

It’s important for people under 50 to be vaccinated too as the vaccine trains our immune system to deal with potential future infection. That’s what one of the worlds leading scientists said recently on news night. As someone who is 39 and still has covid, I’m very glad I was vaccinated as it’s a nasty virus.

 

[Mainsail]

It’s important for people under 50 to be vaccinated too as the vaccine trains our immune system to deal with potential future infection. That’s what one of the worlds leading scientists said recently on news night. As someone who is 39 and still has covid, I’m very glad I was vaccinated as it’s a nasty virus.

Yes. I agree. Everyone in our family is fully vaccinated and boosted. This includes our adult children that are all in their 20s and are very healthy.

My daughter got COVID in early December. She attend a party of grad students (all fully vaccinated and tested weekly as required by the University), and 18 of 22 attendees were infected. Everyone described pretty mild symptoms. Basically, a few days of cold like symptoms. While vaccination did not prevent infection, it seems to have helped prevent serious illness and hospitalization. Of course, these are all young healthy people that are, ironically, part of my daughter's Masters in Public Health program.