Some Monday morning musings-
Anecdotally, I've known a handful of people over the past few weeks who have tested COVID positive. All the recent cases I've known of basically felt like they had a bad cold, although they had some of the typical COVID systems for a short period of time. One recently(who is actually a nurse in a COVID unit) said he basically had a new symptom every day that only lasted for a day-fever first day, loss of taste/smell for a day, and just generally feeling run down/not well for a week or so. That's not to downplay the really bad cases, but I seem to be hearing of fewer really bad cases now.
The above is all anecdotal, but looking at some numbers seems to back that up at least on the surface. Per Worldometer(
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us ), the first peak of daily new cases in the US back in the spring was April 10th at 32,471 cases(7 day moving average for all these numbers I'm about to give), and that was followed by the highest by the highest daily death rate of 22,256 on April 21st. That 11 day window on that lines up well with what we know about the typical disease progression.
More recently, the US saw a peak daily new case count(again 7 day average) of 68,621 on July 24th. Daily new cases-for now-have declined since then to 43,135 since yesterday. The most recent daily death count, however, was 1,169 on August 1st. Deaths have fallen off slightly since then and look to be on a downward trend, but with the much higher case count you would expect a sharp increase in daily deaths. Considering that it's been a month since the daily new case peak, we would expect based on past trends for deaths to have been dramatically higher 2 weeks ago or so. That hasn't been the case.
There are a few explanations I can think of. We have a few things going for us-testing is SIGNIFICANTLY more available, as as I found out a few weeks ago if you present to your doctor with any kind of upper respiratory symptoms, you're going to get swabbed. In March and April, you were basically only going to get a swab if they were almost sure you had it(and even then maybe not). We also know something more about treating severe cases, even if there's not a "silver bullet" treatment.
Another possible explanation, and one I've been trying to read about, is that a mutated strain has become dominant in the US. It is suggested that this new strain is more easily transmissible, but also somewhat less deadly. This COULD explain things. As a not-virologist or epidemiologist, but someone who does understand at least a bit about this, everything I know about viruses is their primary goal is to replicate, and viruses need hosts to replicate. A virus that kills its host at a high rate is not a great virus-this is a lot of the reason that SARS and MERS basically burned out in a few months. A mutation that makes it less deadly(less likely to kill the host) but more easily transmitted is a "better" virus from an evolution standpoint.
In any case, here's an article that examines the second theory, although as research is rapidly evolving on things we'll see what reviewers actually think of this publication.