COVID/Coronavirus non-political DISCUSSION thread

[The-Real-Deal82]

Just found out my next door neighbour has tested positive after he noticed he’d lost his sense of taste. Him and his family now can’t leave the house for 14 days. I seem to know quite a few people now who have had this crappy virus.

 

[jwip]

I hate breaking my word to myself.

You're assuming the vast majority of the worldwide medical community voluntarily agrees with their superiors and with politicians on this very political matter (this is not a pandemic; the survival rate proves it; but just watch: Most flu deaths this winter will be labeled "Covid deaths," just as in Sioux Falls my cousin's friend's aneurysm death was listed as a Covid death; that is common practice in hospitals); or is it possible that most medical professionals are just remaining silent, so they don't get fired like Dr. Gold did? Contrary to your implications and wishful thinking, these aren't just a bunch of inexperienced medical quacks who are speaking out in the U.S. and Europe, regardless of their particular fields of expertise. If these few doctors are brave enough to speak out, then think of all of those who agree with them but are afraid to join them.

I've worked with lots of people at different jobs in my life, and almost all of them were so determined to keep their jobs that they agreed with policies publicly that they didn't agree with privately. I worked in a school with an absolutely corrupt superintendent, budget director and technology director. Every principal and teacher in the entire school district complained privately, but when it came time to take a stand at a public meeting one night, which they had all agreed to hold, none of them showed up (I and, I think, one other person were there), because they feared retribution. They preferred to suffer with the corruption and the major inconveniences brought about by that corruption rather than suffer retribution or lose their jobs, even though it was the students who ultimately suffered the consequences of that corruption. I chose to stand up, and, as a result, I lost my job rather than put up with it ("budget cuts" and "reduction in force" were the excuses used). I proudly left because I had actually won my last battle with the superintendent (keeping Macs in the school district instead of his five-year-long plan to switch to Windows; Macs are still there to this day 18 years later). Much to the staff's credit, almost all of them signed a petition to the school board demanding that I be retained. They both won and lost. I was to be retained for one more year, but I would work in a different school in the district, directly under the corrupt technology director, and I was ordered never to help the staff of my original school ever again, no matter how often they might ask. I could help every school in the district, except that one. So, the staff had been right to be afraid. I knew what sort of hell that final year would be like for me, so I quit (my dad had just died anyway and left me with a nightmarish estate situation that I had to deal with).

I'm sure there is similar cowardice/pragmatism in the medical industry, as well as in every other industry.

That same reasoning can be applied to you, you’re making the assumption that Gold and others are correct even though they don’t actually support their own claims with supporting data. You’re suggesting that because they are speaking out that somehow adds validity to their claims but that’s now how it works. Given this area is science based it makes sense that it should be supported scientifically via peer reviewed studies, of which they they don’t seem to offer. This isn’t a faith based issue, it’s evidence based.

My issue with all of this is that it’s spreading false information, essentially fake news, the has the potential to be harmful to others and you’re playing a part in that spread. All I’m asking is that you support said claims with actual evidence not wishful thinking and blind faith.

A couple more points. Countries that have mask mandates or that people were more likely to wear masks have been doing better then countries like ours. If masks were useless then those numbers should be more in line to ours but that’s not the case. How do you explain those differences?

If I’m wrong then wearing a mask won’t harm anything but if you’re wrong then you’re putting not only yourself in danger but also your loved ones. Are you really suggesting that your unsupported beliefs are more important then the safety of those around you just because you don’t believe in masks?

 

[MJWMac1988]

This is statistical and medical, NOT Political! The three authors of this article are statisticians/mathematicians.

All emphasis [red and red-bold type] is mine. The following is only a portion of the article. Click the link to read all of it.

The Dallas Morning News​

​

It’s time to take a focused approach to COVID-19 protection and stop acting rashly​

[...]​

By Rodney X. Sturdivant, Andrew G. Glen and Mark Arvidson​

1:30 AM on Oct 18, 2020 CDT​

​

We have watched, with surprise and dismay, as mandates and policies designed to contain the spread of COVID-19 increasingly depart from the actual data and science. As a result, those most vulnerable to the disease continue to die, while the least vulnerable continue to suffer the mental, emotional and financial impacts of the lockdown.​

​

We support the Great Barrington Declaration and its strategy of focused protection of the vulnerable and freedom to choose individual levels of protection for others. The declaration has been signed by leading epidemiologists, scientists and medical professionals. [...]​

​

The declaration’s description [...] states: “Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal” while “adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses.” An informed individual and the freedom to choose is at the heart of our response.​

​

[...] Focused protection offers a path forward informed by data and science [...], and avoids as much as possible the damaging physical and mental health impacts of current policies.​

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The science of epidemics shows that as immunity levels build among individuals in the population, the risk of infection for all decreases. Eventually, the risk will fall to a small and stable value when herd immunity is reached. [...]​

​

Sadly, the fear produced by misreporting of the data and the way we count “cases” and “deaths” is problematic, while the actual risk of death from COVID-19 is much lower than first thought. A critical feature of the virus is that the greatest risk of death is in the elderly with associated comorbidities. [...] The risk for people over 70 is well over 1,000 times as great as for those under age 70. [...]​

​

For most people below the age of 70, the risks for COVID-19 are very similar to that of the flu. In the very young, there is negligible risk. According to CDC reports, those under age 17 are over 200 times more likely to die of a cause other than COVID-19. Thus, groups contracting the infection to build immunity face little risk. In fact, we also know most will not have serious symptoms and few will require hospitalization.​

​

Fear, stress and isolation are leading to serious mental health issues, including increases in suicide and depression. […] In many places these policies have led to a growing hunger crisis. […]​

​

Living in fear and isolation is leading to widespread suffering. We propose following the data and science, and returning to living in freedom. It is time to act wisely, not rashly.​

​

Rodney X. Sturdivant is a statistics professor and the director of the statistical consulting center at Baylor University.​

Andrew G. Glen is a professor emeritus of statistics at the U.S. Military Academy.​

Mark Arvidson is a mathematics professor at Azusa Pacific University.​

 

[44267547]

Just found out my next door neighbour has tested positive after he noticed he’d lost his sense of taste. Him and his family now can’t leave the house for 14 days. I seem to know quite a few people now who have had this crappy virus.

Yeah, Loss of taste is one the most common symptoms that our region was reporting. They were just discussing that in my area (Along with the loss of smell), but it can be restored within a time range of two weeks, but can take as long as two months to have your taste sensations return. Just crazy.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

Yeah, Loss of taste is one the most common symptoms that our region was reporting. They were just discussing that in my area (Along with the loss of smell), but it can be restored within a time range of two weeks, but can take as long as two months to have your taste sensations return. Just crazy.

Indeed, my friend who had it a few weeks back hasn’t got his taste or smell back yet so looks like it’ll be a while for him. My wife has been texting the next door neighbour and her husbands smell has come back already but not his taste. The rest of the family have no symptoms yet. The cases are apparently falling in my county but there are pockets where it’s worse. Thankfully although I know quite a few who have had it, nobody has lost their life.

My parents live in Oxfordshire and don’t know a single person affected by it. Mad how different areas see more than others. Back into full restricted lockdown for us in Wales on Friday again

 

[44267547]

Indeed, my friend who had it a few weeks back hasn’t got his taste or smell back yet so looks like it’ll be a while for him. My wife has been texting the next door neighbour and her husbands smell has come back already but not his taste. The rest of the family have no symptoms yet. The cases are apparently falling in my county but there are pockets where it’s worse. Thankfully although I know quite a few who have had it, nobody has lost their life.

My parents live in Oxfordshire and don’t know a single person affected by it. Mad how different areas see more than others. Back into full restricted lockdown for us in Wales on Friday again

I know normal is not a word we can really use anymore, but it really makes you appreciate the sense of normalcy we used to have, where others still continue to exhibit sheer negligence under the worst conditions. Unreal. Stay tactful, we’re smarter than those who put themselves in a situation they can’t reverse.

Stay safe my friend, to you and yours.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

I know normal is not a word we can really use anymore, but it really makes you appreciate the sense of normalcy we used to have, where others still continue to exhibit sheer negligence under the worst conditions. Unreal. Stay tactful, we’re smarter than those who put themselves in a situation they can’t reverse.

Stay safe my friend, to you and yours.

You too mate, weird times. I just hope there is some light at the end of the tunnel soon.

 

[maflynn]

[MOD NOTE]
We've had some posts venture into the PRSI territory, lets be careful.

 

[MJWMac1988]

I know normal is not a word we can really use anymore, but it really makes you appreciate the sense of normalcy we used to have...

We still use the word "normal" here in South Dakota. With the exception of some national chain stores (which I will never patronize again) and some personal, individual choices, everything has remained completely normal here this year, just as it has in Sweden. Contrary to mainstream reports, our per capita death rate is less than half of that of the nation as a whole. This is true 1.) in spite of no mask mandates, no quarantines and no lock-downs; 2.) in spite of having had millions of out-of-state tourists this past summer who were very eager to experience "normal" life again, even if only for a few days (I live near Sturgis, where the motorcycle rally takes place). 3.) in spite of the fact that huge numbers of residents of neighboring states shop here all the time. Finally and equally importantly, a huge percentage of us rural SD residents work and shop in the big cities every day because we have no choice; therefore, contrary to what some may claim, there is lots of intermingling between our urban and rural populations (I will be working in Sturgis again on Friday, where the vast majority of people never got sick, in spite of the rally). We proudly use the word "normal" here as often as we can, even though we know it is entirely due to blind luck that we were spared the fate of most other states and nations. I'm sincerely thankful that Fate caused me to move back here to my home state two years ago, after having lived in a neighboring state for the previous 24 years.

Why can't anyone here see that I'm trying to be a voice of hope in a time of fear? I'm not trying to cause trouble or be a rabble rouser just to antagonize everyone. I'm just the opposite of that.


Finally, I've said this several times before, and I will now truly do it. In fact, I actually made the decision yesterday afternoon. I am doing it for the sake of my own peace of mind, as well as for the sake of this thread: I will no longer respond to anyone who frustrates me to such a degree that my own human weaknesses cause me to tread closely to where the rules don't allow. I have not overstepped those bounds with my medical and statistical information, but in my frustration-fueled replies to others, it isn't as easy to control myself. Hence, I will gladly no longer reply to any contrarian replies to my posts.

 

[vngannxx]

Save your ears 🙂

Also a great idea if you cover your head.

 

[michael9891]

I wonder where all the people are that did a bad job trying to convince everyone covid19 was dying out and everything was back to normal. The same people that refused to believe a second wave would ever come.

As much as I hate to say it, I doubt we'll see anything like normal until at least 2022.

 

[Doc C]

I am concerned that some misinformation is being propagated and that there remains a fair bit of misunderstanding.

(For the record - my beliefs regarding handling this issue have been posted previously; you are all welcome to look up those posts if you are truly interested. I will try to focus purely on statistics and the accepted science in my post.)

To be clear regarding the facts :

• Regarding Masks:
  • masks clearly reduce transmission of infectious organisms (including virus particles) when worn properly -- they do not necessarily provide significant protection to the one wearing the mask
    • mouth and nose must be covered properly
    • there should be minimal to no air gap between the sides of the mask and the face
  • different types of masks provide differing levels of protection, though none will be 100% effective in preventing transmission in all cases
    • one recent study demonstrated that certain bandana-type masks might actually increase the particulate transmission (experts in fluid/air-flow dynamics may be able to comment on the reason for this if, in fact, it is a plausible result)
  • For those who still have doubts, I would suggest that you tell the surgeon not to bother wearing a mask the next time you or your family undergo major surgery, as this is exactly the same concept -- clearly, nobody does this, and the surgeon wouldn't even consider it even if asked
    • for those who are interested (regardless of what you believe), it is worth reviewing the controversy and backlash that arose when Dr. Semmelweis first suggested that doctors should clean their hands between patients -- science and medicine have come a long way since that time, though it is still possible to find situations where ego and self-interest can override the science (any time I am faced with unexpected findings, in addition to reviewing the information itself, I make sure to ask what possible agenda may underlie the author's statements, and thus try to identify what cognitive biases may be present)
  • those who remain on the fence despite the above should consider it somewhat along the lines of Pascal's wager - there is no harm in wearing the mask (other than slight discomfort; studies clearly demonstrate that there is no impact on oxygenation or respiratory function) however there is a potential benefit
    • By this thinking, if you choose to wear the mask, you may or may not benefit, but there is no downside; if you choose to skip the mask, then there is no benefit from not wearing the mask, but there is the potential for harm to yourself and/or others
• Regarding a "Lock-Down"
  • studies show that social distancing is the most effective means of preventing the spread of COVID-19
    • think of it like avoiding HIV/Hepatitis/etc. -- barrier methods reduce the risk but do not eliminate it; the only way of preventing transmission completely is to avoid any potential exposure (those who state that they acquired the infection without exposure either somehow magically created the virus themselves or had an exposure that they weren't aware of)
  • The economic and political costs of a lockdown are outside of my area of expertise, though from an uninformed opinion, I think I would prefer a complete lock-down for a short period of time rather than a partial lockdown that goes on and on and on
• Regarding the concept of Herd Immunity
  • this may be what we eventually need to count on, though the idea of this without a vaccine should frighten people, given the current projections:
    • case fatality rate seems to be hovering around 1.4% (slightly higher in Canada and a few other places, and slightly lower in some other countries, for reasons that may have to do more with case definitions and data collection rather than true differences)
      • as most people are aware, this number varies with age, concurrent medical issues, etc. -- the actual number may end up being slightly higher due to resource constraints and changing demographics
      • Case fatality rates in the Orient, South Asia, and Africa are likely to be higher due to factors including availability and affordability of health care, governmental involvement, community & social attitudes, etc
      • this also does not account for deaths due to unmeasured effects of the pandemic (e.g. the number of patients presenting with acute MIs and strokes has decreased, while the total number of deaths above expected in the US is over 320,000, suggesting that many deaths attributed to other causes may have been preventable had the patients not been afraid to go to the hospital) -- this may all end up increasing the effective case fatality rate towards 2%
    • morbidity rates are much higher than mortality rates
      • studies suggest that a significant number of people who recover from an infection become "long-haulers" (see here and here) -- they end up with persistent or permanent residual symptoms, ranging from decreased senses of smell or taste all the way to permanent neurologic deficits, heart failure, neuromuscular dysfunction, and cognitive abnormalities
        • none of these numbers are adequately addressed in any of the research that I have come across, possibly because it is still too early - if anyone has this information, I would be interested in seeing it
        • data from SARS (a similar virus, though more lethal) suggest that as many as 40% of the patients who recovered from the acute illness still had some residual effects more than three years later
    • It is estimated that 60-70% of people will have to demonstrate immunity before the benefits of herd immunity are seen
      • the range of estimates that I have seen is anywhere from 50-95%, with most hovering in the 70% range
      • it remains unclear whether immunity that results from an infection is durable or even whether every patient who is infected even develops functional immunity
        • an increasing number of reports describe patients who have acquired the virus for a second time (demonstrated by different genetic signatures), suggesting that functional acquired immunity cannot be assumed
      • using 70% exposure required and 1.4% case fatality, 19.4% hospitalization rate with 36.5% of these going to the ICU, typically with respiratory failure and many requiring a ventilator (per current CDC statistics), a 5% long-term morbidity rate (instead of 10-25% noted above) and assuming permanent and a perfect immune response in every patient infected, the following events would be expected to occur (likely a best-case scenario, as the presented numbers would overwhelm health systems worldwide and the assumptions are extremely optimistic):
        • US (population 330M)
          • 231M cases in total
          • 44,814,000 patients hospitalized
            • 16,357,000 in the ICU, at least half of which would require ventilators
          • 3,234,000 deaths
          • 11,550,000 with long-term complications (distribution of disabling vs non-disabling unclear)
        • Worldwide (population 7.821B - assume 821M are sufficiently isolated to be not at risk)
          • 4.9 billion cases
          • 68.6 Million deaths
          • 2.45 billion people left with long-term complications of some sort (as above, the distribution of disabling vs. non-disabling complications is unclear)
  • from the data currently available, the goal of herd immunity does not appear to be one that should be at the top of the list of ways to manage this crisis. (Science is built on the concept of continuous improvement; if new information comes up that changes this conclusion, then those who understand the science will adjust accordingly. Personally, I would love to be able to give up the masks and isolation and to be able to go out with family and friends again.)
  • At the very least, if herd immunity is a strategy that we choose to or are forced to rely on, we must have a health-care system that is capable of handling the volume and acuity of patients that will arise -- at present, including the beds reallocated to critical care, there are less than 150,000 ICU beds in the US (or about 1% of the number of beds that would be required if the patients all showed up at once). Given the average ICU stay of 10-14 days for a COVID patient, we will have to spread the 16M potential patients over about 3 years for everyone to have proper care; the alternative is for all of us to pay a ton more in tax to allow the creation of more ICU beds, to purchase more ventilators, to train and hire more staff (nurses, PT, OT, SLP, physicians, support staff, admin staff, etc.)
    • If we are hoping to spread those patients out over three years, we are back at the masks and social distancing...

There is a fair bit of misinformation that has been propagated on the internet, making it easy to get overwhelmed and/or confused. Unfortunately, the application of inaccurate or incomplete information may have significant negative effects, including death. We need to ensure that we review all information with a critical eye and accept that everyone has their own inherent biases. Once we recognize those biases, we can get a clearer picture of reality; this will help us come together in a way that will help us get out of the current crisis with the least long-term impact.

---------

As stated in other posts, this may be venturing into the PRSI domain, so if the mods feel that this is not the appropriate forum for my post, it can be relocated.

 

[nebo1ss]

We still use the word "normal" here in South Dakota. With the exception of some national chain stores (which I will never patronize again) and some personal, individual choices, everything has remained completely normal here this year, just as it has in Sweden. Contrary to mainstream reports, our per capita death rate is less than half of that of the nation as a whole. This is true 1.) in spite of no mask mandates, no quarantines and no lock-downs; 2.) in spite of having had millions of out-of-state tourists this past summer who were very eager to experience "normal" life again, even if only for a few days (I live near Sturgis, where the motorcycle rally takes place). 3.) in spite of the fact that huge numbers of residents of neighboring states shop here all the time. Finally and equally importantly, a huge percentage of us rural SD residents work and shop in the big cities every day because we have no choice; therefore, contrary to what some may claim, there is lots of intermingling between our urban and rural populations (I will be working in Sturgis again on Friday, where the vast majority of people never got sick, in spite of the rally). We proudly use the word "normal" here as often as we can, even though we know it is entirely due to blind luck that we were spared the fate of most other states and nations. I'm sincerely thankful that Fate caused me to move back here to my home state two years ago, after having lived in a neighboring state for the previous 24 years.

Why can't anyone here see that I'm trying to be a voice of hope in a time of fear? I'm not trying to cause trouble or be a rabble rouser just to antagonize everyone. I'm just the opposite of that.


Finally, I've said this several times before, and I will now truly do it. In fact, I actually made the decision yesterday afternoon. I am doing it for the sake of my own peace of mind, as well as for the sake of this thread: I will no longer respond to anyone who frustrates me to such a degree that my own human weaknesses cause me to tread closely to where the rules don't allow. I have not overstepped those bounds with my medical and statistical information, but in my frustration-fueled replies to others, it isn't as easy to control myself. Hence, I will gladly no longer reply to any contrarian replies to my posts.

Apparently South Dakota is doing really well up 30 percent. https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...s-us-cases-deaths/?itid=hp_pandemic-guide-box

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

My next door neighbours are out of isolation and appear to have escaped with no long term effects of COVID. My friend still have no sense of taste and it’s a few weeks now for him. His wife and daughter are fine.

A guy at my work tested positive this week, but I haven’t been in contact with him as I’ve been working from home lately. They’ve abandoned the ‘tea rounds’ in their office during the day and everybody now makes their own drinks. Why that wasn’t the case already is anybody’s guess.

Lots of arguments in shops here at the moment as only essential items are allowed to be purchased. People can’t live without buying a lamp for their lounge or buy items off Amazon as it’s easier to start a fight with shop staff lol. The worlds gone mad lol.

 

[MJWMac1988]

Total U.S. COVID-19 deaths as of Oct. 27, 2020: 225,792. [PatientCareOnline]

1. of 2.) United States
Population:------330,512,000 [U.S. Census Bureau Population Clock]
CV19 deaths:----225,792
CV19 deaths:----0.07% of the population [Percentage Calculator]

2. of 2.) South Dakota (no mask, quarantine or lock-down laws)
Population:-------903,027 [World Population Review.com]
CV19 deaths:——375 [South Dakota Dept. of Health]
CV19 deaths:-----0.04% of the population [Percentage Calculator]

Keep in mind that a lot of deaths attributed to Covid-19 were not actually a result of Covid-19. A close friend of my cousin died of an aneurysm, but the hospital in Sioux Falls labelled it as "Covid-19." My cousin was furious. There are many stories like that one.

---

Man Requests Covid19 Test, Sends It Back WITHOUT Using It....He Tests POSITIVE

Alternate Link to the man's video (in case the one at YouTube is deleted).

 

[MJWMac1988]

UPDATE (11:20 AM, Mountain Time): This entry has been even further edited to remove anything that could even remotely be labeled as "political."

The following are just a few quotes from a very long article by Dr. Michael Yeadon of the U.K.:

Lies, Damned Lies and Health Statistics – the Deadly Danger of False Positives​

​

20 September 2020​

​

by Dr. Michael Yeadon​

​

Dr. Mike Yeadon is the former CSO and VP, Allergy and Respiratory Research Head with Pfizer Global R&D and co-Founder of Ziarco Pharma Ltd.​

​

[…]​

​

We now know that lockdown made no difference at all to the spread of the virus. We can tell this because the interval between catching the virus and, in those who don’t make it, their death is longer than the interval between lockdown and peak daily deaths. There isn’t any controversy about this fact, easily demonstrated, but I’m aware some people like to pretend it was lockdown that turned the pandemic...​

​

[…]​

​

As there is no foundational, medical or scientific literature which tells us to expect a ‘second wave’, I began to pay more attention to the phrase as it appeared on TV, radio and print media – all on the same day – and has been relentlessly repeated ever since. [...] Surely they have some evidence? [...] I searched — and am very qualified to do so —, drawing on academic friends, and we were all surprised to find that there is nothing at all.​

​

[…]​

​

A person’s sample can be positive if they have the virus, and so it should. They can also be positive if they’ve had the virus some weeks or months ago and recovered.​

​

[…]​

​

Because of the high false positive rate and the low prevalence, almost every positive test — a so-called "case" — identified by Pillar 2 since May of this year has been a FALSE POSITIVE. Not just a few percent. Not a quarter or even a half of the positives are FALSE, but around 90% of them. Put simply, [there] is an overestimate by a factor of about ten-fold. Earlier in the summer, it was an overestimate by about 20-fold.​

​

[…]​

​

…What is the probability a person testing positive in Pillar 2 actually has COVID-19? The awful answer is 11% (10 divided by 80 + 10). The test exaggerates the number of covid-19 cases by almost ten-fold (90 divided by 10). [...] That daily picture they show you, with the ‘cases’ climbing up on the right-hand side? It's horribly exaggerated.​

​

[…]​

​

…The Pillar 2 test will find half as many real cases from our notional 10,000 volunteers, so 5 real cases. But the flaw in the test means it will still find 80 false positives (0.8% of 10,000). So its even worse. The headline would be “85 new cases identified today”. But now the probability a person testing positive [actually] has the virus is an absurdly low 6% (5 divided by 80 + 5). Earlier in the summer, this same test exaggerated the number of COVID-19 cases by 17-fold (85 divided by 5). It's so easy to generate an apparently large epidemic this way. Just ignore the problem of false positives. Pretend its zero. But it is never zero.​

​

[…]​

​

The likelihood of an apparently positive case being a false positive is between 89-94%, or near-certainty.​

​

[…]​

​

The cases in summer and at present, generated by seriously flawed Pillar 2 tests, should be corrected downwards by around ten-fold.​

​

I do believe genuine cases are rising somewhat. This is, however, also true for flu, which we neither measure daily nor report on every news bulletin. If we did, you would appreciate that, going forward, it is quite likely that flu is a greater risk to public health than COVID-19.​

​

[…]​

​

There are very serious consequences arising from grotesque over-estimation of so-called cases in Pillar 2 community testing...​

 

[BigMcGuire]

The attempt to muddy the waters and cause misinformation is astounding. On the internet, one can find any "Dr." supported data to support their conclusions. My own family has given me some of this from Facebook.

I had a test last week because someone I know had close interaction with someone who tested positive. My test came back within 24 hours - negative.

 

[Tigger11]

Total U.S. COVID-19 deaths as of Oct. 27, 2020: 225,792. [PatientCareOnline]

1. of 2.) United States
Population:------330,512,000 [U.S. Census Bureau Population Clock]
CV19 deaths:----225,792
CV19 deaths:----0.07% of the population [Percentage Calculator]

2. of 2.) South Dakota (no mask, quarantine or lock-down laws)
Population:-------903,027 [World Population Review.com]
CV19 deaths:——375 [South Dakota Dept. of Health]
CV19 deaths:-----0.04% of the population [Percentage Calculator]

Keep in mind that a lot of deaths attributed to Covid-19 were not actually a result of Covid-19. A close friend of my cousin died of an aneurysm, but the hospital in Sioux Falls labelled it as "Covid-19." My cousin was furious. There are many stories like that one.

---

Please stop doing Silly Stats to push your agenda.

First of all as to your deaths deaths attributed to Covid comment, realize average deaths over the last 5 years vs 2020, shows us that Covid-19 deaths are being largely UNDERREPORTED. Over 300,000 extra deaths this year so far and thats with the shutdowns causing a huge decrease in moter vehicle deaths, deaths in workplaces etc. So stop spinning a yarn that facts don't back up. In addition, noone used the population of a state or country to figure out the death rate of a disease except you and other Covid spammers. If we did that for Ebola, it would be the least dangerous disease in the world. Instead of the disease that usually has a better then 50% fatality rate. If you look at fatality rate for those diagnosed with the disease (one of the ways we actually track diseases), we have a US fatality rate of 2.57% and a worldwide fatality rate of 2.64%. What does that mean, that means of the 500,000 Americans who where diagnosed with the the disease last week, almost 13000 will die. Thats right, given the average we are running now with this disease we should expect 13000 to die just from those that caught it last week. Acting as if losing 13000 American lives a week is ok, is wrong, if I have to explain that to you we really don't have alot to talk about. If everyone in the US catches this disease the death toll will be in the millions, if everyone on the planet catches it the death toll is in the 100s of millions. We need serious responses to the disease, not silly responses that none of your friends are dead yet, the disease isnt that bad, or that its like the flu. Its currently killing 25X more than a really bad flu year. Bad flu year death rate is 0.1% which is 1 out of 1000. Death rate of Covid is 2.5% that is 1 out of 40.
-Tig

 

[QCassidy352]

Please stop doing Silly Stats to push your agenda.

First of all as to your deaths deaths attributed to Covid comment, realize average deaths over the last 5 years vs 2020, shows us that Covid-19 deaths are being largely UNDERREPORTED. Over 300,000 extra deaths this year so far and thats with the shutdowns causing a huge decrease in moter vehicle deaths, deaths in workplaces etc.

Yes, this. I'm sure there are some cases of non-covid deaths being reported as Covid, just as there are many cases of Covid deaths being reported as pneumonia. Anecdotes don't tell the story, though. Large-scale data does.

And to that end, just look at deaths above average/expected:

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

We start seeing deaths way above expected in Spring 2020 and continuing through until now. What is this, a coincidence?

 

[michael9891]

UPDATE (11:20 AM, Mountain Time): This entry has been even further edited to remove anything that could even remotely be labeled as "political."

The following are just a few quotes from a very long article by Dr. Michael Yeadon of the U.K.:

Lies, Damned Lies and Health Statistics – the Deadly Danger of False Positives​

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20 September 2020​

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by Dr. Michael Yeadon​

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Dr. Mike Yeadon is the former CSO and VP, Allergy and Respiratory Research Head with Pfizer Global R&D and co-Founder of Ziarco Pharma Ltd.​

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[…]​

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We now know that lockdown made no difference at all to the spread of the virus. We can tell this because the interval between catching the virus and, in those who don’t make it, their death is longer than the interval between lockdown and peak daily deaths. There isn’t any controversy about this fact, easily demonstrated, but I’m aware some people like to pretend it was lockdown that turned the pandemic...​

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[…]​

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As there is no foundational, medical or scientific literature which tells us to expect a ‘second wave’, I began to pay more attention to the phrase as it appeared on TV, radio and print media – all on the same day – and has been relentlessly repeated ever since. [...] Surely they have some evidence? [...] I searched — and am very qualified to do so —, drawing on academic friends, and we were all surprised to find that there is nothing at all.​

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[…]​

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A person’s sample can be positive if they have the virus, and so it should. They can also be positive if they’ve had the virus some weeks or months ago and recovered.​

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[…]​

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Because of the high false positive rate and the low prevalence, almost every positive test — a so-called "case" — identified by Pillar 2 since May of this year has been a FALSE POSITIVE. Not just a few percent. Not a quarter or even a half of the positives are FALSE, but around 90% of them. Put simply, [there] is an overestimate by a factor of about ten-fold. Earlier in the summer, it was an overestimate by about 20-fold.​

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[…]​

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…What is the probability a person testing positive in Pillar 2 actually has COVID-19? The awful answer is 11% (10 divided by 80 + 10). The test exaggerates the number of covid-19 cases by almost ten-fold (90 divided by 10). [...] That daily picture they show you, with the ‘cases’ climbing up on the right-hand side? It's horribly exaggerated.​

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[…]​

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…The Pillar 2 test will find half as many real cases from our notional 10,000 volunteers, so 5 real cases. But the flaw in the test means it will still find 80 false positives (0.8% of 10,000). So its even worse. The headline would be “85 new cases identified today”. But now the probability a person testing positive [actually] has the virus is an absurdly low 6% (5 divided by 80 + 5). Earlier in the summer, this same test exaggerated the number of COVID-19 cases by 17-fold (85 divided by 5). It's so easy to generate an apparently large epidemic this way. Just ignore the problem of false positives. Pretend its zero. But it is never zero.​

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The likelihood of an apparently positive case being a false positive is between 89-94%, or near-certainty.​

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The cases in summer and at present, generated by seriously flawed Pillar 2 tests, should be corrected downwards by around ten-fold.​

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I do believe genuine cases are rising somewhat. This is, however, also true for flu, which we neither measure daily nor report on every news bulletin. If we did, you would appreciate that, going forward, it is quite likely that flu is a greater risk to public health than COVID-19.​

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There are very serious consequences arising from grotesque over-estimation of so-called cases in Pillar 2 community testing...​

You keep posting these long posts but if anyone has anything to say about it, you're not able to handle the inevitable replies. No way I'm going to read it all because it seems you want to convince everyone it's not a problem.

I suppose all the people being hospitalised by covid19 don't actually have it? And it's a coincidence the curve flattenened everywhere during lock downs and now people are trying to get back to normal, cases are going up again.

Of course we can't shut ourselves away forever but to there's a very clear and obvious link.

 

[44267547]

My next door neighbours are out of isolation and appear to have escaped with no long term effects of COVID. My friend still have no sense of taste and it’s a few weeks now for him. His wife and daughter are fine.

A guy at my work tested positive this week, but I haven’t been in contact with him as I’ve been working from home lately. They’ve abandoned the ‘tea rounds’ in their office during the day and everybody now makes their own drinks. Why that wasn’t the case already is anybody’s guess.

Lots of arguments in shops here at the moment as only essential items are allowed to be purchased. People can’t live without buying a lamp for their lounge or buy items off Amazon as it’s easier to start a fight with shop staff lol. The worlds gone mad lol.

I just read today that Europe has surpassed its 10 millionth Covid case. Just a staggering number to even comprehend on any level given since this pandemic rolled out in March.

But you know what I was thinking about earlier today, I listen to a respected infectious disease doctor in my state who lives about 20 minutes from me and a Epidemiologist, and they both talked about the exhaustion of having to repeat the same things on a daily basis to the public about social distancing, washing your hands, don’t touch your face, wear a mask, and then the cycle repeats itself with more of the same announcements. And then somebody asked the question, why do we need to constantly have this circular discussion of topics that we already know? Because if the health professionals (And like-minded who are tactful and smart) don’t establish the constant reminders of what to do, the general public seemingly thinks it’s ‘not a big deal’ anymore or they purposely forget going back to their old habits spreading the infection more.

I don’t mean to denigrate anyone, but it’s a lot like kindergarten, where the masses has to be reminded of what to do to make a positive impact, but they refuse to do it. It’s absolutely mind blowing in every which way.

Like you said, someone could easily order something online for the sake of convenience and have it in a very short amount of time delivered, but no, the simple minded people decide to put themselves in a crowded shopping mall and their health at risk over a pair of gloves for the winter.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

I just read today that Europe has surpassed its 10 millionth Covid case. Just a staggering number to even comprehend on any level given since this pandemic rolled out in March.

But you know what I was thinking about earlier today, I listen to a respected infectious disease doctor in my state who lives about 20 minutes from me and a Epidemiologist, and they both talked about the exhaustion of having to repeat the same things on a daily basis to the public about social distancing, washing your hands, don’t touch your face, wear a mask, and then the cycle repeats itself with more of the same announcements. And then somebody asked the question, why do we need to constantly have this circular discussion of topics that we already know? Because if the health professionals (And like-minded who are tactful and smart) don’t establish the constant reminders of what to do, the general public seemingly thinks it’s ‘not a big deal’ anymore or they purposely forget going back to their old habits spreading the infection more.

I don’t mean to denigrate anyone, but it’s a lot like kindergarten, where the masses has to be reminded of what to do to make a positive impact, but they refuse to do it. It’s absolutely mind blowing in every which way.

Like you said, someone could easily order something online for the sake of convenience and have it in a very short amount of time delivered, but no, the simple minded people decide to put themselves in a crowded shopping mall and their health at risk over a pair of gloves for the winter.

People definitely need to be constantly reminded. I think this pandemic has exposed how selfish a lot of people are and how we need strict guidance just to employ basic common sense.

We got a text from from daughters primary school yesterday to inform us they have 3 cases in two classes. So 50 children and their teachers need to self isolate now for 14 days. A friend of my wife has it now too but works on a COVID ward so that’s not as unexpected. Still, I speak to members of my family in areas less affected and they still don’t know anybody who has had it. They are frustrated by the measures because they think it’s not as bad as it actually is. Then I tell them about the numerous cases I know of and they are shocked. Seeing Facebook posts from loved ones angry they still can’t visit their holiday homes in Wales does frustrate me somewhat.

 

[Gregg2]

The vast majority of the population has not been directly affected by COVID-19. Many of those who haven't had it and don't know anyone who has feel like it's no big deal. That's tunnel vision to the extreme. There are hundreds of thousands of people who are mourning lost loved ones. It's a big deal to them, obviously. It's a pity that so many cannot understand that it's not just about them.

 

[44267547]

The U.K. is becoming one of the most dangerous parts of the world for the pandemic right now. They’re entering another month of lockdown, and surpassed 1 million cases and their P.M. had this to say:

“Unless we act, we could see deaths in this country running at several thousand a day,” said Johnson.”

Think about that for a minute what he said, several thousand deaths a day? So if his trajectory is correct, ‘several‘ thousand deaths a day [Give or take if his calculation is off by a 1000 on a day-to-day to Basis], over a two week span for example, would be north of 18,000 deaths at a minimum of losses and could be as high as 28,000. Unreal. And the worst part is, the holidays are coming for gatherings.Not a safe place to be in the UK right now.

England to enter new lockdown; UK virus cases pass 1 million

LONDON (AP) — British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday announced a new month-long lockdown for England after being warned that without tough action a resurgent coronavirus outbreak will overwhelm hospitals in weeks.

apnews.com

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

We’ve had a couple of shocking instances come to light in the last week local to me. A guy tested positive a few weeks back before the pubs were closed and he decided he wasn’t going to isolate. He decided to go to the pub that evening and several of the regulars contracted the virus. One has since died.

Where I work a guy on the factory floor has been ignoring calls all week from Track and Trace after a member of his family tested positive and put his name forward as a close contact person prior to diagnosis. He told people who worked with him he was pissed off as he didn’t want to be off work so was ignoring the number appearing on his phone. They finally got hold of him today and he’s finally gone home. It’s caused a huge panic at work. I have a meeting this afternoon with our CEO and two group directors and I am going to do everything I can to get him disciplined or sacked. I’m bloody furious!!