Dilemma: maxed out M5 MBA or wait for M6 MBA?

[Populus]

Disclaimer: the idea of waiting isn’t because any screen or design change. Actually, I don’t want an OLED MBA for reasons I don’t want to delve about now, but OLED screens aren’t coming to the MBA until at least the M7 generation.

So here’s my dilemma:

I think the M5 is significantly hotter than previous SoC, and the MBA is a fan less laptop. That’s why I have the fear that those temperature oscillation may end up damaging in the long term the laptop logic board. And that’s why I would prefer to wait for the first 2nm SoC, the M6, to purchase a maxed out MacBook Air.

However, this comes at the risk of having to pay a lot more. Why? We all know the situation with RAM, Apple still hasn’t raised it’s prices, but they will, eventually. At least the SSD and RAM upgrade prices. And my idea is to get a machine with at least 24GB of RAM and 1TB of storage. Ideally, a machine with even 32GB of RAM to have room in the future to play with local LLMs (Google just released a macOS app for their local models).

But this comes with a couple of risks:

a) if the M6 MBA comes out with similar prices, I won’t be able to sell the specced out M5 easily without losing a lot of money.

b) heat. This is my main fear. See, I want this machine to last me between 8 and 10 years. And the higher temperatures of the M5 may end up killing the machine. Not that an M3, M4 or M6 MBA would suffer much less heat stress, I still remember the M2 reaching 108°C, but supposedly a 2nm with a whole new transistor technology should generate less heat, and the laptop could last me more years.

c) if the MBA dies after a few years because of the high temperature oscillation, investing in 1TB/32GB is way more risky than on a 512GB/24GB machine…

So, what would you do?

Factors that will surely make Apple computers skyrocket:

1) very constrained RAM and NVMe supply.

2) Inflation and TSMC prices experiencing raises. The upcoming 2nm process will be significantly more expensive, but even the current 3nm process is getting price increases.

3) The war is already impacting the manufacturing and supply chains, and it could get worse in the coming months.

I don’t know guys, I’m the type of user that invests in a great machine and makes it last until it no longer receives security updates (sometimes even further). I’m not in the mood of selling a thousands of euros worth machine in the second hand market to get a newer machine. But I’m not sure if the M6 is worth the wait.

What would you do? Get an intermediate spec such as the 512GB/24GB MBA and that way, if I had to sell it, I’d lose less money? Or go outright for my desired specs, 1TB/32GB, before the prices of Apple storage and memory explode?

If you’re going to ask me about my uses, honestly, now, aside from the local LLM stuff, I don’t think I’ll need more than 24GB of RAM. As for storage, 1TB will always be good to have, but I guess I can keep storing media on external drives… but the 512GB may get filled relatively easy, and it’s usually recommended to have half of the storage empty.


I’m reading your thoughts.

 

[Basic75]

Try to find a cheap M4 MacBook Air?

 

[dmr727]

Try to find a cheap M4 MacBook Air?

This is what I would do.

Unless you really need the power over an M4, I'd save the money. I can't imagine thermal stress is something that'll cause it to last less than 8-10 years, but having a cheaper machine will piss you off less if you end up being right.

 

[maflynn]

I think the M5 is significantly hotter than previous SoC

Yep, it is

a) if the M6 MBA comes out with similar prices,

No guarantee that it will be priced similarly, and if the current ram/SSD situation is still occurring, the odds are pretty good that the prices will increase.

b) heat. This is my main fear. See, I

Then look at the Macbook and Macbook Pros where the laptops are actively cooled.

 

[dizmonk]

I'm with the last guy... if cooling is a big deal for you then get a Macbook Pro. I don't really get the concern but it sounds like it's important to you. I just got a 24gb/1Tb 15" and I'm very happy with it.

 

[JPack]

Too many variables to consider, but here are some additional ones:

- YMTC and CXMT are massively increasing fab capacity, much of it scheduled to come online in 2027. Most of the supply will be for China, but this this means NAND and DRAM prices are not likely to increase much globally.

- TSMC N2 isn't expected to cost much more than N3E, maybe about 20%. It's the jump from N2 to A14 that is expected to increase 50% in terms of wafer costs.

 

[Populus]

Too many variables to consider, but here are some additional ones:

- YMTC and CXMT are massively increasing fab capacity, much of it scheduled to come online in 2027. Most of the supply will be for China, but this this means NAND and DRAM prices are not likely to increase much globally.

- TSMC N2 isn't expected to cost much more than N3E, maybe about 20%. It's the jump from N2 to A14 that is expected to increase 50% in terms of wafer costs.

Thank you @JPack for your insight.

I was going to ask you if the new Chinese memory suppliers were of lower quality, but if they are for the China market then it doesn’t affect me. However, if they decide to start using QLC NAND modules, that’s likely to impact the lifespan of the laptop.

 

[Populus]

I'm with the last guy... if cooling is a big deal for you then get a Macbook Pro. I don't really get the concern but it sounds like it's important to you. I just got a 24gb/1Tb 15" and I'm very happy with it.

MacBook Pro is out of the table because it’s not the form factor I’m looking for. Too heavy, too expensive. It’s the MBA what is on the sweet spot of what I want.

 

[KPOM]

What do you intend to do that will cause the m5 to run hot? Do you use any CPU- or GPU-intensive applications?

Given the RAM situation, now is the time to buy a 24GB or 32GB model if that is your desire. Have you considered using a cooling pad?

 

[Geekett]

If you intend your MacBook Air to last that long (up to 10 years), go for the 32 go RAM/1 TO. For local LLM, 24 Go of Ram will be too tight, especially on the long run. I wouldn’t worry that much about heat damage. The machine will throttle to avoid that.
As AI is evolving so fast, that is the real uncertainty imo

 

[mike.coulter]

Just buy whichever configuration suits your needs now. Rarely see the point in waiting.

 

[ignatius345]

Disclaimer: the idea of waiting isn’t because any screen or design change. Actually, I don’t want an OLED MBA for reasons I don’t want to delve about now, but OLED screens aren’t coming to the MBA until at least the M7 generation.

So here’s my dilemma:

I think the M5 is significantly hotter than previous SoC, and the MBA is a fan less laptop. That’s why I have the fear that those temperature oscillation may end up damaging in the long term the laptop logic board. And that’s why I would prefer to wait for the first 2nm SoC, the M6, to purchase a maxed out MacBook Air.

However, this comes at the risk of having to pay a lot more. Why? We all know the situation with RAM, Apple still hasn’t raised it’s prices, but they will, eventually. At least the SSD and RAM upgrade prices. And my idea is to get a machine with at least 24GB of RAM and 1TB of storage. Ideally, a machine with even 32GB of RAM to have room in the future to play with local LLMs (Google just released a macOS app for their local models).

But this comes with a couple of risks:

a) if the M6 MBA comes out with similar prices, I won’t be able to sell the specced out M5 easily without losing a lot of money.

b) heat. This is my main fear. See, I want this machine to last me between 8 and 10 years. And the higher temperatures of the M5 may end up killing the machine. Not that an M3, M4 or M6 MBA would suffer much less heat stress, I still remember the M2 reaching 108°C, but supposedly a 2nm with a whole new transistor technology should generate less heat, and the laptop could last me more years.

c) if the MBA dies after a few years because of the high temperature oscillation, investing in 1TB/32GB is way more risky than on a 512GB/24GB machine…

So, what would you do?

Factors that will surely make Apple computers skyrocket:

1) very constrained RAM and NVMe supply.

2) Inflation and TSMC prices experiencing raises. The upcoming 2nm process will be significantly more expensive, but even the current 3nm process is getting price increases.

3) The war is already impacting the manufacturing and supply chains, and it could get worse in the coming months.

I don’t know guys, I’m the type of user that invests in a great machine and makes it last until it no longer receives security updates (sometimes even further). I’m not in the mood of selling a thousands of euros worth machine in the second hand market to get a newer machine. But I’m not sure if the M6 is worth the wait.

What would you do? Get an intermediate spec such as the 512GB/24GB MBA and that way, if I had to sell it, I’d lose less money? Or go outright for my desired specs, 1TB/32GB, before the prices of Apple storage and memory explode?

If you’re going to ask me about my uses, honestly, now, aside from the local LLM stuff, I don’t think I’ll need more than 24GB of RAM. As for storage, 1TB will always be good to have, but I guess I can keep storing media on external drives… but the 512GB may get filled relatively easy, and it’s usually recommended to have half of the storage empty.


I’m reading your thoughts.

IMO this is way, way too much hand wringing over buying a MacBook Air. If it makes you feel better, snag an M4 off Apple Refurbished site and be done with it.

 

[1rottenapple]

Remember those intel mbp you can cook an egg with a built in internal fan? Some how those are still lasting. Hell I have a core 2 duo mbp from 2009 that’s kicking around. You can even let it rest on your leg with out getting radiation burns. Somehow I think with m series silicone architecture advances I think these fanless air will make it. It’s a nonissue OP.

I have an m2 air I use for work at home and side business. Bought open box and it’s still going 3 yr now and feel snappy. I think I’ll just upgrade not because it’s old but because if they make a light weigh 16 in pro or larger air screen then 15in I’ll dump this computer.

 

[Basic75]

Just buy whichever configuration suits your needs now. Rarely see the point in waiting.

"If you need it now, buy it now." Makes sense.

 

[neo_cs193p]

If it's longevity you desire, get the best MBA you can get and set it to Low Power Mode. That should eliminate all the overheating you're worried about. And for day to day tasks the performance difference is indistinguishable.

 

[ignatius345]

Remember those intel mbp you can cook an egg with a built in internal fan? Some how those are still lasting. Hell I have a core 2 duo mbp from 2009 that’s kicking around. You can even let it rest on your leg with out getting radiation burns. Somehow I think with m series silicone architecture advances I think these fanless air will make it. It’s a nonissue OP.

This is a great point. If excess heat killed MacBooks, those things would’ve all been dust by now.

BTW I had a black polycarbonite MacBook from that time that ran so hot I bought a thick bamboo cutting board to keep on my lap so it wouldn’t roast my legs. (I found one that had little rubber feet on the corners, so it elevated the MacBook like 1/4” so air could circulate. Good times!)

 

[thadoggfather]

was in a bit of similar dilemma

I think more price hikes are inevitable.

Scored a 15" M5 Air 24GB/1TB Starlight for $1249 new in box. Just received and its sweet! Wanted a spec bump in ram and storage, and got just that for a great price. Funny coincidence that today's macOS reveal is 'Golden Gate' just as I get the gold hue laptop.

Going to pack my 15" M2 8/256 up and trade it in this week for $480
(got it open box for $850 @ BB coming up on 3 years ago).

16/512 is going to be the base for another 10 years 😛
they just moved up to 16/256 with M4 air and 16/512 with M5 albeit with $100 price increase.

 

[ab2c4]

I strongly believe much bigger price increases are coming. Windows laptops are getting wrecked big time on models with more RAM and storage. Our son's higher end Asus laptop that we bought in August for $950is now $1,600 today for example.

Another factor is with Apple support. Look how they are dropping support for the Apple Watch Ultra 1 already, and how the very still new 16 Pro/Pro Max are being left out already when it comes to AI. I don't think we should be spending big money on devices today for longevity. Good chance devices today won't be supported as long as devices in the past.

If a base model Air can do the job right now I would go with that and save the money. Then in five years do the same thing again. Seems like a better way to get through 10 years than to try to buy one laptop today and hope that it will be strong enough to last that long, that Apple will even support it that long, and won't die on its own before then.

Things are changing quickly now and I just don't see how many devices bought today, no matter how upgraded they might be, will still be worthwhile in 10 years. AI will probably change a lot and quickly, thus the hardware will probably change as well with it.

 

[ab2c4]

Yep, it is

No guarantee that it will be priced similarly, and if the current ram/SSD situation is still occurring, the odds are pretty good that the prices will increase.

Then look at the Macbook and Macbook Pros where the laptops are actively cooled.

You say the m5 runs hotter. Is this while under a heavy sustained workload, or from simply browsing the internet?

 

[Populus]

You say the m5 runs hotter. Is this while under a heavy sustained workload, or from simply browsing the internet?

I guess this happens when demand is intense…

If the computer uses mostly the efficiency cores, the M5 may actually be more efficient due to how much more powerful are the new e-cores. I think I’ll get the M5 as soon as the back to school promo launches in Europe. The M5 is already a great chip and well prepared for Siri AI.

 

[Populus]

Hey!

After the WWDC ‘26, I’m more convinced to get the M5 MBA. Macs are the only platform where us, EU citizens, will be able to use Siri AI. This completely takes the Neo away from the table, if I ever considered it.

Now, given that Siri AI is going to do locally most of what I wanted local LLMs for, this is finding local documents by semantic search and working with their content, without uploading it to AI cloud services… I guess I no longer need to future-proof it with unnecessary high amounts of RAM. Also, if the minimum requirements go higher, they probably won’t include older chips regardless of having the maximum RAM possible (32GB).

That helped me to narrow down my choice to 24GB of RAM, the sweet spot according to many users and reviewers.

Now, all that is left is the decision of going with 512GB, which will help me lose less money in the event of selling it in one or two years for the M6 or M7 MBA, or… go for the 1TB, in case that the storage and memory upgrades get SO expensive next year that I won’t be able to afford more than the base computer.

Also, with the new Siri AI maybe having 1TB of very fast storage is a good idea, to have most or all of my documents there… on the other hand, I have several external NVMe drives, all of them USB 3.2 at 10GBps.

With the education discount, prices are:

10 CPU 10 GPU, 512GB SSD and 24GB of RAM: 1330€

10 CPU 10 GPU, 1TB SSD and 24GB of RAM: 1560€

I wonder if local Siri AI takes so much RAM that maybe 24GB may become tight… but I don’t think so.

So those are my current options: M5 MBA 512GB/24GB, or M5 MBA 1TB/24GB

 

[Abazigal]

There's also rumours of touchscreen Macs impending, though I have no idea what that will cost at this point.

Steve Troughton-Smith (@stroughtonsmith@mastodon.social)

Attached: 1 image AppKit isn't just getting touch gesture support, but NSToolbar now has iOS-style fluid morphing animations when used with a touchscreen too. Longpresses trigger a right-click, momentum pinch and scroll work great. Very clearly telegraphing upcoming touchscreen Macs

mastodon.social

I don't think the M5 chip will get anywhere hot enough to damage the internals of your laptop but if you want better cooling, there's always the M5 Pro MBP (you are already most of the way there with your desire for 24gb ram and 1tb storage).

 

[thadoggfather]

there's always the M5 Pro MBP (you are already most of the way there with your desire for 24gb ram and 1tb storage).

I didn't realize MBP14 is now 16/1 base but also starts at 1699.
That is getting pretty close because 16/1 M5 Air (15 inch) is 1499.

though some people want a 13 inch, and then its 1299 for 16/1, $400 off.

Then there's the footprint, lots of people prefer 15 inch to 14, or thinner overall.
or prefer 13 to 14 and the additional savings.

But yeah when you spec up a bigger MBA, without discounts, it is surprisingly close price wise. Interesting observation.

Happy with the move I made 🙂
I don't like the chunkiness and weight of the 14 inch pro, and 16 - out of the question. I never owned a MBP but I think I'd be annoyed with blooming if its as obvious as people say it is and appears in some photos, even with superior blacks and panel characteristics overall:

 

[Apple_Robert]

No point in waiting. Chasing ever-changing tech is futile.

 

[Populus]

No point in waiting. Chasing ever-changing tech is futile.

True. I already decided to wait from the M4 gen to the M5, so… I guess it’s already time. If the next gen is close (e.g. getting the latest iPhone at full price in August) and you can wait a bit, it usually is a good idea, but generally it isn’t. Even less in this inflationary environment.

There's also rumours of touchscreen Macs impending, though I have no idea what that will cost at this point.

Steve Troughton-Smith (@stroughtonsmith@mastodon.social)

Attached: 1 image AppKit isn't just getting touch gesture support, but NSToolbar now has iOS-style fluid morphing animations when used with a touchscreen too. Longpresses trigger a right-click, momentum pinch and scroll work great. Very clearly telegraphing upcoming touchscreen Macs

mastodon.social

I don't think the M5 chip will get anywhere hot enough to damage the internals of your laptop but if you want better cooling, there's always the M5 Pro MBP (you are already most of the way there with your desire for 24gb ram and 1tb storage).

Yeah but the MBP is not my target machine. I appreciate lightweight devices nowadays, and the MBA offers enough. Also, for me the LCD IPS screen of the MBA is perfect. No PMW, no blooming, nothing more than a great IPS display with enough contrast to slightly notice the HDR in some media (I’ve tested it).

As for the upcoming touchscreen MBP? Not for me. I don’t want fingerprints on my laptop’s screen. Also the price will be around the 3000 bucks.

I’ve been narrowing down the device I want. I initially wanted the M5 Mac mini, but given the wait and after having thought about it a bit, I guess I’ll be fine with the M5 MacBook Air. Now the question is: 512GB/24GB or 1TB/24GB (or maybe even the 512GB/32GB if anyone gives me a good enough reason).

The other possibility is to keep waiting for the M5 Mac mini, and using my iPad as a display if I travel somewhere, especially now that sidecar includes touch controls on GG. But I think the easiest option is the MBA.

Please stop recommending me the MacBook Pro, it is too thick, too large, too heavy and too expensive.