Nah, I think they'll start treating it like Mac OS. They will have the usual updates and applications that come with the iPhone (for mac it is Mail, iCal, iTunes, Automator, etc.) but then also release others that people can buy if they want (for the mac, this is iWork, Final Cut Pro, etc.). That makes sense to me.
You have to remember though that the only reason Apple came out with Mac s/w is because no other major 3rd party s/w company was willing to make decent Mac s/w. No s/w = no h/w sales for Apple. Jobs has always said he sees Apple as primarily a h/w company, and that is where it's profits come from. It's s/w sales other than OS X don't even register.
This is not the case with the iPhone. Companies are jumping all over each other to make iPhone apps. Heck Adobe is practically BEGGING Apple. They never begged w/ the Mac. In fact they usually say "screw Mac." There is no reason for Apple to spend R&D money developing iPhone apps when others are doing it for them. It doesn't make any sense for Apple to make iPhone apps. In fact, they haven't made one yet. All the widgets on the original were made by Yahoo or Google.