Both the App Store as well as Apple Pay are already developed and running around the world. According to many people on this forum, they offer a superior and more secure user experience than more open solutions (such as the ones on Android). Apps that are available globally are being reviewed by Apple anyway.
Yes, Apple may lose some revenue and earnings by this rule (though it may also just encourage more people / companies to buy their devices, once the platform has become more open). But how is shutting down locally supposedly a more favourable option?
Unless Apple shut down parts of their services everywhere in the world, the marginal (or „additional“) costs of continuing operate in the EU are very small. They are not going to save much money by withdrawing from Europe - compared to the revenues and earnings from that region.
Now, there may be a point in withdrawing from Europe to prevent opening up the platform and prevent App installations from third-party sources and non-IAP transactions in Apps elsewhere. To prevent customers in other markets from benefitting from „sideloading“ due to the EU requirement. Basically: withdraw from 20% of the global market (EU) to continue charging as before in the other 80%.
But here’s the thing: Hardware sales are depending on provision of app installation services, and they are making so much from those that their bottom line will be negatively impacted.
Also, other jurisdictions -
including the US and
Japan - are preparing or likely to adopt their own regulation on App Store(s) to eventually allow sideloading and/or prohibit requiring developers of using their operator’s own in-app purchasing system.
Besides all that, it is doubtful whether Apple is going to lose much revenue even if (convenient) sideloading is allowed, since most apps, even on „sideloadable“ Android are, as a matter of fact, obtained through the dominant stores.